Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>BOC Aviation | BOCAVI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boc-aviation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22689:1" rel="noopener">(2588 HK)</a> </strong></p>
<p>As a follow-up on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a>'s Smartkarma Original <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-pac-airports-ups-but-mostly-downs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51855" rel="noopener">Asia-Pac Airports: Ups, But Mostly Downs</a>, we take a look at BOCAVI, which, in our view, is a compelling alternative to APAC airport operators and airlines as a post-Covid trade.</p>
<p><strong>BOCAVI is a highly geared play on the resumption of air travel. </strong>The stock has gone through periods of significant out/underperformance against the APAC airports and airlines and may continue to give investors high beta in either direction. The geographical exposure is broad, but there is a heavy skew towards short-haul flights, which will see the earliest acceleration in passenger traffic.</p>
<p><strong>Management's countercyclical capex expansion increasingly looks like a shrewd bet. </strong>At its core, BOCAVI is in the capital management business. Strong liquidity and BOC's explicit backing have allowed the lessor to grow its purchase-and-leaseback portfolio through the depths of the pandemic. While airlines are still hemorrhaging cash, over 99% of BOCAVI's aircraft remain cash-generating.  </p>
<p><strong>We expect the firm's undiscounted committed revenues to top USD20bn in 2021.</strong> By year-end, the value of the portfolio will have doubled since 2014. We estimate the present value of this cashflow stream to be HKD72.80/share. We are essentially getting free growth optionality. </p>
<p><strong>We are buyers at book value.</strong> The stock is trading at 8x P/E and 1.1x P/B on a 12M forward basis. BOCAVI is reasonably liquid, with a market cap of USD6bn and average daily turnover of USD3.5mn. Besides the obvious risk of protracted lockdowns globally, a well-functioning USD bond market and BOC's funding support are critical to our investment case.</p>
<p>Attachment: BOCAVI Financial Summary</p>

BOC Aviation | BOCAVI (2588 HK) 
As a follow-up on David Blennerhassett's Smartkarma Original Asia-Pac Airports: Ups, But Mostly Downs, we take a look at BOCAVI, which, in our view, is a compelling alternative to APAC airport operators and airlines as a post-Covid trade.
BOCAVI is a highly geared play on the resumption of air travel. The stock has gone through periods of significant out/underperformance against the APAC airports and airlines and may continue to give investors high beta in either direction. The geographical exposure is broad, but there is a heavy skew towards short-haul flights, which will see the earliest acceleration in passenger traffic.
Management's countercyclical capex expansion increasingly looks like a shrewd bet. At its core, BOCAVI is in the capital management business. Strong liquidity and BOC's explicit backing have allowed the lessor to grow its purchase-and-leaseback portfolio through the depths of the pandemic. While airlines are still hemorrhaging cash, over 99% of BOCAVI's aircraft remain cash-generating.  
We expect the firm's undiscounted committed revenues to top USD20bn in 2021. By year-end, the value of the portfolio will have doubled since 2014. We estimate the present value of this cashflow stream to be HKD72.80/share. We are essentially getting free growth optionality. 
We are buyers at book value. The stock is trading at 8x P/E and 1.1x P/B on a 12M forward basis. BOCAVI is reasonably liquid, with a market cap of USD6bn and average daily turnover of USD3.5mn. Besides the obvious risk of protracted lockdowns globally, a well-functioning USD bond market and BOC's funding support are critical to our investment case.
Attachment: BOCAVI Financial Summary

BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

Bond market data and technology, BondEvalue

BondEvalue

Bond market data and technology

BondEvalue is a Singapore-based Fintech that specializes in bond market data and technology. The company's information services business offers bond market data on hard-currency corporate & sovereign bonds across Asia, Middle East, Europe and the Americas. The data, which includes bond prices, yields, news and analytics, is offered to end investors via interactive Mobile and Web Apps. Investors can sign up for a free trial of the service either via the company's website (https://bondevalue.com) or by downloading the BondEvalue Mobile App (http://onelink.to/wej7jq). BondEvalue is also developing an electronic bond exchange, BondbloX in Singapore that allows investors to trade bonds electronically in smaller sizes (US$1,000 or equivalent). For more information, visit https://www.bondblox.com/

Bond Market Data and Technology

Credit

S&amp;P closed marginally higher by 0.1% while Nasdaq ended flat. Tesla continued rising with another gain of 1.9% while Boeing was also up 3.9%. Amazon, Apple and Nvidia pulled down the index, down 1.1%, 1.2% and 1.4% respectively. The US 10Y Treasury yields rose to 1.6% on encouraging data – US jobless claims came in at 406k vs. 444k in the week prior beating expectations of 425k. President Biden is also set to propose a $6tn budget for the US later today. European Indices had a mixed close. While FTSE and DAX were down 0.1% and 0.3%, CAC was up 0.7%. US IG CDS spreads were 0.7bp tighter and HY spreads were 1.5bp tighter. EU main spreads were 0.5bp tighter and crossover spreads tightened 2bp. Asian equities had a good start, up ~1% with Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads widening 0.3bp.

Macro; Rating Changes; New Bond Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainers & Losers

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<p>Sky Perfect JSAT operates Japan’s only direct-to-home (DTH) video service and is Asia’s largest satellite operator. As a well-known consumer-facing service, the former is better known and has often driven sentiment but the key to unlock value may be in the latter as the space industry expands. An increase in space industry investment brings new opportunities but also heightened competition from low-earth satellite fleets albeit at less intensity than its global peers. On balance, we think the changes are positive and we initiate coverage at Buy with a ¥640 FY21-end target price.</p>

Sky Perfect JSAT operates Japan’s only direct-to-home (DTH) video service and is Asia’s largest satellite operator. As a well-known consumer-facing service, the former is better known and has often driven sentiment but the key to unlock value may be in the latter as the space industry expands. An increase in space industry investment brings new opportunities but also heightened competition from low-earth satellite fleets albeit at less intensity than its global peers. On balance, we think the changes are positive and we initiate coverage at Buy with a ¥640 FY21-end target price.

Sky Perfect JSAT - Upside Potential in Space Business (Initiation of Coverage)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Cathay Pacific Airways / Equity Bottom-Up

<div>
<p>After Hong Kong's government planned to impose a 14-day quarantine and seven-day medical surveillance on all aircrew, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0125/2021012500513.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it would have a "<em>significant impact on our ability to service our passenger and cargo markets</em>" and would add <em>"a further increase in our cash burn of approximately HK$300-$400 million per month</em>".</p>
<p>In effect, the uptick in cost from these new quarantine measures negates the cost savings from the cessation of Cathay Dragon announced last October.</p>
<p>Cathay has now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0128/2021012800096.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the issuance of a HK$6.74bn 2.75% convertible bond due 2026.</p>
<p>The conversion price is HK$8.57/share, a 30% premium to the last close of HK$6.59/share. Assuming full conversion, these shares represent 10.89% of shares out on a fully diluted basis.</p>
<p>Upon conversion, together with the exercise of warrants held by the Hong Kong government, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a>'s effective stakes would decline to 37.91% and 25.27% respectively from 45.00% and 29.99% currently. </p>
<p>Cathay's shares are up 25% in the past three months - before this latest fund-raising proposal - in line with a basket of peers of 28%. Year-on-year, Cathay is down 33%, bang in line with its peer basket.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Separately <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a>'s discount to NAV has narrowed to 43% from a low of 55% last November.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
</div>


After Hong Kong's government planned to impose a 14-day quarantine and seven-day medical surveillance on all aircrew, Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) announced it would have a "significant impact on our ability to service our passenger and cargo markets" and would add "a further increase in our cash burn of approximately HK$300-$400 million per month".
In effect, the uptick in cost from these new quarantine measures negates the cost savings from the cessation of Cathay Dragon announced last October.
Cathay has now announced the issuance of a HK$6.74bn 2.75% convertible bond due 2026.
The conversion price is HK$8.57/share, a 30% premium to the last close of HK$6.59/share. Assuming full conversion, these shares represent 10.89% of shares out on a fully diluted basis.
Upon conversion, together with the exercise of warrants held by the Hong Kong government, Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) and Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)'s effective stakes would decline to 37.91% and 25.27% respectively from 45.00% and 29.99% currently. 
Cathay's shares are up 25% in the past three months - before this latest fund-raising proposal - in line with a basket of peers of 28%. Year-on-year, Cathay is down 33%, bang in line with its peer basket.


Separately Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)'s discount to NAV has narrowed to 43% from a low of 55% last November.


As always, more below the fold.


Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Back To Terminal

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/304/original/2021-01-18_07-21-17.png?1611015356" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183304"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/305/original/2021-01-19_09-18-35.png?1611015525" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183305"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>POLES APART</strong><strong>&amp; ECHOES OF 2000</strong>- As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold (Relative Price Score &lt;-2.0) and those that are OverBought (RPS &gt; 4.0) remains at extreme levels as does the spread in terms of market weight. 7.2% of listed companies are Oversold; while 2.2% are OverBought, but the latter account for 13.7% of market value; the former just 5.4%. The last time both pairs of metrics were at these levels was the 2000 technology bubble.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/321/original/2021-01-19_10-25-51.png?1611019564" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183321"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/323/original/2021-01-19_10-27-10.png?1611019660" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183323"></figure></section><p><strong>BLOW OUT</strong> - As was the case in 2000, the total number of Sectors either OverBought or Oversold is also at an extreme level having peaked at 13 in December. This number has been exceeded only twice in the last fifty years  - in December 1999 (16) and February 2000 (14).   </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/363/original/2021-01-19_12-45-46.png?1611027961" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183363"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/367/original/2021-01-19_13-09-06.png?1611029374" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183367"></figure></section><div><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific recommendations.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>THE JAPAN ANALYTICS RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> -  The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,919 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.</p></div></div></div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsPOLES APART&amp; ECHOES OF 2000- As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold (Relative Price Score &lt;-2.0) and those that are OverBought (RPS &gt; 4.0) remains at extreme levels as does the spread in terms of market weight. 7.2% of listed companies are Oversold; while 2.2% are OverBought, but the latter account for 13.7% of market value; the former just 5.4%. The last time both pairs of metrics were at these levels was the 2000 technology bubble.BLOW OUT - As was the case in 2000, the total number of Sectors either OverBought or Oversold is also at an extreme level having peaked at 13 in December. This number has been exceeded only twice in the last fifty years  - in December 1999 (16) and February 2000 (14).   In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific recommendations.THE JAPAN ANALYTICS RELATIVE PRICE SCORE -  The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,919 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores -  Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

United States

The Boeing Company, together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and markets commercial jet aircraft, as well as provides related support services to the commercial airline industry worldwide.  The Company also researches, develops, produces, modifies, and supports information, space, and defense systems, including military aircraft, helicopters and space and missile systems.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Boeing Co (BA US)

BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

As downstream players continue to hemorrhage cash, over 99% of BOCAVI’s aircraft are still cash-generating. Valuation is undemanding for a high...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Macro; Rating Changes; New Bond Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainers & Losers

S&P closed marginally higher by 0.1% while Nasdaq ended flat. Tesla continued rising with another gain of 1.9% while Boeing was also up 3.9%....

BondEvalue

Sky Perfect JSAT - Upside Potential in Space Business (Initiation of Coverage)

Sky Perfect JSAT is better known for its direct broadcast satellite (DBS) video business but the space business represents more value and has been...

Kirk Boodry

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Back To Terminal

Vaccine rollout and a hard turnaround in global tourism/air travel appear highly optimistic. I think Cathay has further to fall from here.

David Blennerhassett

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores - Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold and those that are...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)