Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21713:1" rel="noopener">Siemens AG (SIE GR)</a> were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). Sony Corp (6758 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR) and Siemens AG (SIE GR) were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Global Fund Positioning Update:  Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

Bond market data and technology, BondEvalue

BondEvalue

Bond market data and technology

BondEvalue is a Singapore-based Fintech that specializes in bond market data and technology. The company's information services business offers bond market data on hard-currency corporate & sovereign bonds across Asia, Middle East, Europe and the Americas. The data, which includes bond prices, yields, news and analytics, is offered to end investors via interactive Mobile and Web Apps. Investors can sign up for a free trial of the service either via the company's website (https://bondevalue.com) or by downloading the BondEvalue Mobile App (http://onelink.to/wej7jq). BondEvalue is also developing an electronic bond exchange, BondbloX in Singapore that allows investors to trade bonds electronically in smaller sizes (US$1,000 or equivalent). For more information, visit https://www.bondblox.com/

Bond Market Data and Technology

Credit

US markets shed the risk-off sentiment with the S&amp;P broadly flat while the tech heavy Nasdaq gained 0.7%. The upside was supported by Energy and Healthcare up 1% and 0.4% respectively while the indices were dragged down by Consumer Staples and Real Estate, down 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. Facebook and Boeing (detailed below) beat expectations while Paypal reported a drop in profits. Amazon is set to report earnings later today. European stocks reversed some of the losses – the CAC was up 1.2% and DAX and FTSE were up 0.3% each. Saudi TASI and UAE’s ADX were up 0.2% and 1% respectively. Asia Pacific stocks were up – the HSI led, up 2%, followed by Shanghai, Singapore’s STI and Nikkei up 0.9%, 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.

India Cleantech Launches $ Bond; Macro; Rating Changes; New Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainers an...

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone / Credit

US markets ended the week on another record high. S&amp;P and Nasdaq were both up 1% and markets enter the upcoming week with a Fed Meeting lined up along with high profile earnings reports from Apple, Alphabet, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla and Boeing . Consumer Services led the gains up 2.7%. Utilities, Consumer Stables, Health Care, and IT were up ~1%. Markit Flash US composite and services PMIs for July came in lower at 59.7 and 59.8 respectively vs. last month’s 63.7 and 64.6 while the manufacturing PMI was higher at 63.1 vs 62.1 last month. US 10Y Treasury yields tightened by 2bp to 1.26%. Euro zone activity  grew in July to a 21-year high with flash composite PMI at 60.6 vs. 59.5. The European bourses also closed higher – CAC, DAX and FTSE were up 1.4%, 1% and 0.9%. US IG CDS spreads tightened 0.7bp and HY tightened 3.4bp. EU Main and Crossover spreads tightened 0.9bp and 3.4bp respectively. Brazil’s Bovespa was down 0.9%. Middle East markets opened the week in the green after the Eid break. Saudi TASI and UAE’s DAX were up 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. Asian markets looked for direction as Chinese tech shares continued to drop as Chinese regulators barred Tencent from exclusive rights in online music – the Nikkei is up 1.3% while HSI, Shanghai and Singapore’s STIs are down 2.4%, 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads were 0.3bp wider.

Adani Ports, Temasek Launch $ Bonds; Macro; Rating Changes; New Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainer...

US Markets retreated from their early gains even after strong Q2 earnings from banking majors JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs (details below). S&amp;P and Nasdaq were down ~0.4% with the fall spearheaded by Boeing’s 4.2% drop after the FAA reported a manufacturing quality issue on its 787 fleet (details below). Real Estate, down 1.3% and Consumer Discretionary down 1.2% led the drop while IT up 0.4% provided some support. Financials, Industrials and Energy were also down ~1%. US CPI  rose to 0.9% MoM in June against a forecast of 0.5% – the largest one month change since June 2008. The inflation reading YoY came in at 5.4%, the highest in 13 years, vs. an estimate of 5.0%. The Core CPI, the index for all items less food and energy, rose 4.5% over the last year, the highest since 1991. US 10Y Treasury yields ended 3bp higher to 1.4% after the CPI release and a weak 30Y bond auction. European indices were broadly flat – DAX, CAC and FTSE down 0.01%. US IG and HY CDS spreads widened 0.7bp and 3.8bp respectively. EU main CDS spreads were flat while crossover spreads tightened 0.5bp. Brazil’s Bovespa was up 0.5%. Saudi TASI and Abu Dhabi’s ADX were up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Asian markets opened in the red – HSI and Shanghai were down 0.4%, Nikkei was down 0.2% and Singapore’s STI was down 0.1%. Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads were 0.1bp tighter.

KT Corp Launches $ Bond; Macro; Rating Changes; New Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainers & Losers

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Headline Developments SpaceX (private) is set to launch The Pentagon’s next-generation national security satellite to orbit - the first launch with a reused rocket.  The launch of the GPS III SV05 for Space Force (below) will take place using the same Falcon 9 rocket booster that launched GPS III SV04 last November.

Headline Developments SpaceX (private) is set to launch The Pentagon’s next-generation national security satellite to orbit - the first launch with a reused rocket.  The launch of the GPS III SV05 for Space Force (below) will take place using the same Falcon 9 rocket booster that launched GPS III SV04 last November.

United States

The Boeing Company, together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and markets commercial jet aircraft, as well as provides related support services to the commercial airline industry worldwide.  The Company also researches, develops, produces, modifies, and supports information, space, and defense systems, including military aircraft, helicopters and space and missile systems.

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Boeing Co (BA US)

Global Fund Positioning Update: Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

A detailed look at investor positioning among 380 active Global strategies, covering the major themes in country, sector and stock exposure.

Steven Holden

India Cleantech Launches $ Bond; Macro; Rating Changes; New Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainers an...

US markets shed the risk-off sentiment with the S&P broadly flat while the tech heavy Nasdaq gained 0.7%. The upside was supported by Energy...

BondEvalue

Adani Ports, Temasek Launch $ Bonds; Macro; Rating Changes; New Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainer...

US markets ended the week on another record high. S&P and Nasdaq were both up 1% and markets enter the upcoming week with a Fed Meeting lined...

BondEvalue

KT Corp Launches $ Bond; Macro; Rating Changes; New Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainers & Losers

US Markets retreated from their early gains even after strong Q2 earnings from banking majors JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs (details below). S&P...

BondEvalue

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #36

Headline Developments: SpaceX (private) is set to launch The Pentagon’s next-generation national security satellite to orbit.

Granite Bay Capital

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