Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Given the tight &amp; very light volumes last week, we really need everyone back in their trading seats to get a lay of the land</li><li>Key question still remains, is this US Dollar bounce the real thing? Or a head fake to another move lower</li><li>Being neither too smart nor too foolish, KVP is doing one of the hardest things a trader/Portfolio Manager can do, sitting on the side lines &amp; waiting…</li><li>Let the currents of probability dictate when its time to act… cause right now…  apart from some downside exposure through equity puts or VIX calls for the portfolio (equity vol is too low), things are looking neither here nor there…</li><li>WK 13: End of !Q16, US PCE &amp; NFP due, plus PMIs in full swing &amp; liquidity should be returning to the markets post the hols</li></ul>

Given the tight &amp; very light volumes last week, we really need everyone back in their trading seats to get a lay of the landKey question still remains, is this US Dollar bounce the real thing? Or a head fake to another move lowerBeing neither too smart nor too foolish, KVP is doing one of the hardest things a trader/Portfolio Manager can do, sitting on the side lines &amp; waiting…Let the currents of probability dictate when its time to act… cause right now…  apart from some downside exposure through equity puts or VIX calls for the portfolio (equity vol is too low), things are looking neither here nor there…WK 13: End of !Q16, US PCE &amp; NFP due, plus PMIs in full swing &amp; liquidity should be returning to the markets post the hols

Global Macro Take: WK 13. Sitting on the Side-Lines… for Now

CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

Macroeconomics

We're awash in concerns over inflation - the Economist last week, and multiple speakers at the 2nd Independent Research Conference where we moderated a panel on asset allocation. Ignore them.  Our analysis suggests a low near term probability of sustained inflationary concerns in core markets. However, if you disagree, steer clear of linkers and commodity futures as your inflation hedge. You'll likely lose money. We recommend equities for this role, which are currently pricing in cyclical inflation lows.  In EM, we see the trend moving in the opposite direction, as inflationary pressures top out on the back of recovery in real exchange rates.  Longer term, the outlook for inflation in core economies will move up as policy makers are forced to ease more aggressively to drive it into a 2-4% range.  Not necessarily a bad thing for risk assets.

We're awash in concerns over inflation - the Economist last week, and multiple speakers at the 2nd Independent Research Conference where we moderated a panel on asset allocation. Ignore them.  Our analysis suggests a low near term probability of sustained inflationary concerns in core markets. However, if you disagree, steer clear of linkers and commodity futures as your inflation hedge. You'll likely lose money. We recommend equities for this role, which are currently pricing in cyclical inflation lows.  In EM, we see the trend moving in the opposite direction, as inflationary pressures top out on the back of recovery in real exchange rates.  Longer term, the outlook for inflation in core economies will move up as policy makers are forced to ease more aggressively to drive it into a 2-4% range.  Not necessarily a bad thing for risk assets.

<ul><li>Barring some kind of shock-event, US dollar liquidation will drive markets for the near-term, possibly even a few weeks.</li><li>Already elevated EM equities &amp; currencies just got jet fuel injected into their fires. EUR to gun for 1.15, AUD for 78c…</li><li>So tactically one can focus on being right &amp; comfortable while potentially missing on the potential continuation of the near-term trends, or one can focus on making money &amp; get uncomfortable by playing the melt-up</li></ul>

 Barring some kind of shock-event, US dollar liquidation will drive markets for the near-term, possibly even a few weeks.Already elevated EM equities &amp; currencies just got jet fuel injected into their fires. EUR to gun for 1.15, AUD for 78c…So tactically one can focus on being right &amp; comfortable while potentially missing on the potential continuation of the near-term trends, or one can focus on making money &amp; get uncomfortable by playing the melt-up 

Global Macro Take: WK 12. Dollar Melt-Down = EM EQ + EM FX + CMD Melt-Up

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Banking profits are under attack from FinTech Over the next five years, banks will no longer enjoy the oligopolistic profits of the past. Their scale is now working against them. Nimbler financial technology (or “FinTech”) companies are eating into their market share. Banking profits in segments such as enterprise lending and wealth management will decline by up to 35% by 2025, according to McKinsey.Crowdfunding is the most potent FinTech threat.

Banking profits are under attack from FinTech Over the next five years, banks will no longer enjoy the oligopolistic profits of the past. Their scale is now working against them. Nimbler financial technology (or “FinTech”) companies are eating into their market share. Banking profits in segments such as enterprise lending and wealth management will decline by up to 35% by 2025, according to McKinsey.Crowdfunding is the most potent FinTech threat.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, credit spreads and commodity prices, as well as their correlations and implied volatilities.” <figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/004/663/original/Market%20Risk.png?1450243661" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="4663"><figcaption class="figcaption">Source: DBS 2014 Annual Report p90</figcaption></figure>In the bank’s 2012 annual report the definition on page 81 was slightly different: “Market risk affects the economic values of financial instruments held by the…

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, credit spreads and commodity prices, as well as their correlations and implied volatilities.” Source: DBS 2014 Annual Report p90In the bank’s 2012 annual report the definition on page 81 was slightly different: “Market risk affects the economic values of financial instruments held by the…

With Radically Lower Oil Prices, Market Risk Assets Is a Focus

France

BNP Paribas S.A. attracts deposits and offers commercial, retail, investment, private and corporate banking services.  The Bank also provides asset management and investment advisory services to institutions and individuals in Europe, the United States, Asia and the Emerging Markets.

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BNP Paribas (BNP FP)

Global Macro Take: WK 13. Sitting on the Side-Lines… for Now

Given the tight & very light volumes last week, we really need everyone back in their trading seats to get a lay of the land Key question...

Kay Van-Petersen

Inflation - Really?

We're awash in concerns over inflation - the Economist last week, and multiple speakers at the 2nd Independent Research Conference where...

ClearMacro

Global Macro Take: WK 12. Dollar Melt-Down = EM EQ + EM FX + CMD Melt-Up

Barring some kind of shock-event, US dollar liquidation will drive markets for the near-term, possibly even a few weeks. Already elevated EM...

Kay Van-Petersen

Crowdfunding as an Investment Theme

Banking profits are under attack from FinTechOver the next five years, banks will no longer enjoy the oligopolistic profits of the past. Their...

CM Research

With Radically Lower Oil Prices, Market Risk Assets Is a Focus

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse...

Daniel Tabbush

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