Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P DJI Index team announced the replacement for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> when it is deleted from the S&amp;P/ASX200 Friday at the close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arena-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12209:1" rel="noopener">Arena Reit (ARF AU)</a> </li>
<li>There are other changes to sub-indices which are not publicly announced but which should align with previous analysis</li>
<li>This insight provides estimates for the index events Friday and ways to play them.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P DJI Index team announced the replacement for Ausnet Services (AST AU) when it is deleted from the S&amp;P/ASX200 Friday at the close: Arena Reit (ARF AU) 
There are other changes to sub-indices which are not publicly announced but which should align with previous analysis
This insight provides estimates for the index events Friday and ways to play them.


Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P/ASX Index family is a widely-tracked group of indices and sub-indices which represent the performance of ASX-listed companies. </li>
<li>In March 2022, Index rebalance events will take place for the S&amp;P/ASX capitalization-weighted indices including ASX 300, ASX 200, ASX 100, ASX 50, and ASX 20. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the leading candidates who could become Adds/Deletes during the March 2022 Rebalance and other potential intra-quarterly changes.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX Index family is a widely-tracked group of indices and sub-indices which represent the performance of ASX-listed companies. 
In March 2022, Index rebalance events will take place for the S&amp;P/ASX capitalization-weighted indices including ASX 300, ASX 200, ASX 100, ASX 50, and ASX 20. 
In this insight, we take a look at the leading candidates who could become Adds/Deletes during the March 2022 Rebalance and other potential intra-quarterly changes.


S&P/​ASX Indices: Quiddity Leaderboard for March 2022 Rebalance

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Wisdomtree Japan Hedged Eq / Technical Analysis

Market dynamics continue to send mixed signals, but the bottom line is that not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes all remain above critical support levels. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish. It is also worth noting that various indicators could be making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a potential false breakdown in crude oil, and high yield spreads leveling-out.

Market dynamics continue to send mixed signals, but the bottom line is that not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes all remain above critical support levels. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish. It is also worth noting that various indicators could be making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a potential false breakdown in crude oil, and high yield spreads leveling-out.

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Cracks are beginning to show, particularly in EM/China where the MSCI EM index (EEM-US) is breaking below major $52 base support, the Shanghai Composite is breaking below 3500, the CSI 300 is breaking below 4885, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is breaking below 27,000 support. Thankfully we have stayed away from areas hardest hit since EM/China has had poor relative performance for quite some time. Despite this being largely self-induced and very China-specific due to China's regulatory crackdown, the overhang could linger as additional Sectors/industries could be targeted. Moreover, it certainly does not help our already cautious and neutral outlook, but rather reinforces it.

Cracks are beginning to show, particularly in EM/China where the MSCI EM index (EEM-US) is breaking below major $52 base support, the Shanghai Composite is breaking below 3500, the CSI 300 is breaking below 4885, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is breaking below 27,000 support. Thankfully we have stayed away from areas hardest hit since EM/China has had poor relative performance for quite some time. Despite this being largely self-induced and very China-specific due to China's regulatory crackdown, the overhang could linger as additional Sectors/industries could be targeted. Moreover, it certainly does not help our already cautious and neutral outlook, but rather reinforces it.

Weakness Contained To EM & China Thus Far; Actionable Themes: Tech, Utilities, Financials, Materials

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several international markets that are breaking out to new highs or making bullish inflections since our previous Int’l Compass (10/31/19). While developments continue to lean bullish, global equities have rallied substantially since the start of October, making it perfectly reasonable to expect some consolidation of recent gains which would allow for a more meaningful move higher.

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several international markets that are breaking out to new highs or making bullish inflections since our previous Int’l Compass (10/31/19). While developments continue to lean bullish, global equities have rallied substantially since the start of October, making it perfectly reasonable to expect some consolidation of recent gains which would allow for a more meaningful move higher.

Global Equity Strategy: The Pause that Refreshes?

Australia

BlueScope Steel Limited supplies steel products and solutions. The Company manufactures steel slabs, plates, hot and cold rolled coils, and coated and painted strip products for building and construction, automotive, whitegoods, and manufacturing applications. BlueScope Steel serves customers in Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

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Bluescope Steel (BSL AU)

S&P/ASX200 - Ausnet OUT, Arena REIT IN

The S&P/ASX 200 will see Ausnet replaced by Arena REIT on 4 Feb. This is widely expected/predicted and Arena has outperformed, but it is a lot of...

Travis Lundy

S&P/ASX Indices: Quiddity Leaderboard for March 2022 Rebalance

A look at the leading candidates who could become Adds/Deletes for the S&P ASX Indices during the March 2022 Rebalance and other potential intra...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

Various indicators are making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a false breakdown in...

Vermilion Research

Weakness Contained To EM & China Thus Far; Actionable Themes: Tech, Utilities, Financials, Materials

Cracks are beginning to show, particularly in EM/China. Key support violations include the MSCI EM index below $52, the Shanghai Comp below 3500,...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: The Pause that Refreshes?

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/ASX200 - Ausnet OUT, Arena REIT IN

The S&P/ASX 200 will see Ausnet replaced by Arena REIT on 4 Feb. This is widely expected/predicted and Arena has outperformed, but it is a lot of...

Travis Lundy

S&P/​ASX Indices: Quiddity Leaderboard for March 2022 Rebalance

A look at the leading candidates who could become Adds/Deletes for the S&P ASX Indices during the March 2022 Rebalance and other potential intra...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

Various indicators are making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a false breakdown in...

Vermilion Research

Weakness Contained To EM & China Thus Far; Actionable Themes: Tech, Utilities, Financials, Materials

Cracks are beginning to show, particularly in EM/China. Key support violations include the MSCI EM index below $52, the Shanghai Comp below 3500,...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: The Pause that Refreshes?

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several...

Vermilion Research

S&P/ASX Indices: Quiddity Leaderboard for March 2022 Rebalance