Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The near term impact of ONDC on OFD platforms like Zomato &amp; Swiggy is limited, longer term they will have to move from platform to a network centric model.</li>
<li>An external shock will be required to drive faster ONDC adaption as we have seen in the case of UPI.</li>
<li>Logistics companies especially the ones with express capabilities are likely beneficiaries in case ONDC scales up rapidly. </li>
</ul>


The near term impact of ONDC on OFD platforms like Zomato &amp; Swiggy is limited, longer term they will have to move from platform to a network centric model.
An external shock will be required to drive faster ONDC adaption as we have seen in the case of UPI.
Logistics companies especially the ones with express capabilities are likely beneficiaries in case ONDC scales up rapidly. 


India Food Delivery - Bracing for Disruption (ONDC)

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Western Carriers / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-carriers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39869:1" rel="noopener">Western Carriers (1489172D IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Western Carriers (India) Limited (WCIL) was the largest private, multimodal, rail focused, 4PL asset-light logistics company in India in terms of container volumes in FY22, as per 1Lattice.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.</li>
</ul>



Western Carriers (1489172D IN) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO.
Western Carriers (India) Limited (WCIL) was the largest private, multimodal, rail focused, 4PL asset-light logistics company in India in terms of container volumes in FY22, as per 1Lattice.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.


Western Carriers Pre-IPO-Expanding Through a Combination of Asset-Light Model and Own Infrastructure

CJ Darcl Logistics Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cj-darcl-logistics-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43862:1" rel="noopener">CJ Darcl Logistics Limited (1506129D IN)</a> is looking to raise around US$100m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>CJ Darcl Logistics (CJDL) is a diversified logistics company in India, with market leadership in full truck load (FTL) vertical in terms of revenue for FY23, according to CRISIL.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.</li>
</ul>



CJ Darcl Logistics Limited (1506129D IN) is looking to raise around US$100m in its upcoming India IPO.
CJ Darcl Logistics (CJDL) is a diversified logistics company in India, with market leadership in full truck load (FTL) vertical in terms of revenue for FY23, according to CRISIL.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.


CJ Darcl Logistics Pre-IPO - Diversifying and Integrating Operations for a Larger Pie

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for a bunch of indices ended last week though the announcement of the changes will take 4-6 weeks.</li>
<li>There are no rebalance implementations in the coming week though focus will move to the implementation of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> merger and index changes the following week.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to China focused ETF with a lot of money going into Semiconductor and Chip focused ETFs.</li>
</ul>


The review period for a bunch of indices ended last week though the announcement of the changes will take 4-6 weeks.
There are no rebalance implementations in the coming week though focus will move to the implementation of the HDFC Limited/ HDFC Bank merger and index changes the following week.
There were big inflows to China focused ETF with a lot of money going into Semiconductor and Chip focused ETFs.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KQ150, LQ45, PCOMP, HDFC/HDFCB, Delta Electronics, Redox IPO, AMFI

Tube Investments of India  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 10 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other migrations and some stocks have seen large price moves over the last couple of weeks.</li>
<li>Active managers would have started realigning their portfolios and that could continue for a couple of weeks. Unwind long positions into strength.</li>
</ul>


We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 10 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other migrations and some stocks have seen large price moves over the last couple of weeks.
Active managers would have started realigning their portfolios and that could continue for a couple of weeks. Unwind long positions into strength.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023): Outperformance Continues

India

Blue Dart Express Limited operates a courier service and an integrated express package distribution company.  The Company offers delivery of packages and documents in India and throughout the world.

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Blue Dart Express (BDE IN)

India Food Delivery - Bracing for Disruption (ONDC)

ONDC is set to offer customers more options, alter business models for online food delivery players and provide a tailwind for express logistic...

Pranav Bhavsar

Western Carriers Pre-IPO-Expanding Through a Combination of Asset-Light Model and Own Infrastructure

Western Carriers (India) Limited is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the company’s historical...

Akshat Shah

CJ Darcl Logistics Pre-IPO - Diversifying and Integrating Operations for a Larger Pie

CJ Darcl Logistics Limited is looking to raise around US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the company’s historical...

Akshat Shah

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KQ150, LQ45, PCOMP, HDFC/HDFCB, Delta Electronics, Redox IPO, AMFI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023): Outperformance Continues

There could be 34 stocks migrating between size segments at the next reclassification. Active fund managers would have started rebalancing their...

Brian Freitas

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