Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

It may not feel like it. It may not smell like it. But make no mistake Hong Kong is in recession. We are underweight in our relative regional equity portfolio.  The only positives are that the real cost of lending is easing (which might bring some relief to mortgage owners) and Hong Kong corporate balance sheets are in good shape to weather the current downturn. But the negative overwhelm these positives.

It may not feel like it. It may not smell like it. But make no mistake Hong Kong is in recession. We are underweight in our relative regional equity portfolio.  The only positives are that the real cost of lending is easing (which might bring some relief to mortgage owners) and Hong Kong corporate balance sheets are in good shape to weather the current downturn. But the negative overwhelm these positives.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>US Fed is signalling that it is virtually done with QT (quantitative tightening)</li>
<li>Risk asset booms rest on more Global Liquidity</li>
<li>Equities and corporate debt remain vulnerable to effects of past tightenings</li>
<li>Gold, yield spreads and, above all, crypto-currencies look more likely winners</li>
</ul>


US Fed is signalling that it is virtually done with QT (quantitative tightening)
Risk asset booms rest on more Global Liquidity
Equities and corporate debt remain vulnerable to effects of past tightenings
Gold, yield spreads and, above all, crypto-currencies look more likely winners


A Coming Liquidity Boom: Buy Crypto or Gold …Gold or Crypto?

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

The USD remains mixed, but gold has developed a persistent uptrend.  This may reflect underlying weakness in the USD and doubts about the state of the global economy.  Its recent rise is at odds with the rebound in global equities, but consistent with lower global yields since the Fed moved to a stable rates outlook late last year.  Gold will face a significant test around its highs of last year, levels that have capped gold since 2013.  It may not be related, but it nevertheless noteworthy that Bitcoin may be showing signs of forming a base.

The USD remains mixed, but gold has developed a persistent uptrend.  This may reflect underlying weakness in the USD and doubts about the state of the global economy.  Its recent rise is at odds with the rebound in global equities, but consistent with lower global yields since the Fed moved to a stable rates outlook late last year.  Gold will face a significant test around its highs of last year, levels that have capped gold since 2013.  It may not be related, but it nevertheless noteworthy that Bitcoin may be showing signs of forming a base.

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

In our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monex-group-8698-jp-weak-fundamentals-deter-the-possibility-of-a-further-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25647">Monex Group (8698 JP): Weak Fundamentals Deter the Possibility of a Further Upside</a>, we suggested that despite the partial resumption of Coincheck's services, further upside for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14211" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a> is unlikely due to weak cryptocurrency markets.Since then, Monex's share price (which was around JPY500 in mid-November 2018) has fallen to JPY367 as of 8th February 2019. This is only marginally above the pre-acquisition (of Coincheck) price of JPY344 (on 2nd April 2018). In the meantime, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25895" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1">Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)</a>  has also fallen from around USD6,000 in mid-November to around USD3,500 at present.<div class="content-highlight">We maintain our previous direction for Monex as we believe that upside is unlikely in the short run unless there is a significant improvement in cryptocurrency market conditions, despite the resumption of most of Coincheck's services and Monex’s share price falling almost to the pre-acquisition (of Coincheck) level.</div>

In our previous note, Monex Group (8698 JP): Weak Fundamentals Deter the Possibility of a Further Upside, we suggested that despite the partial resumption of Coincheck's services, further upside for Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) is unlikely due to weak cryptocurrency markets.Since then, Monex's share price (which was around JPY500 in mid-November 2018) has fallen to JPY367 as of 8th February 2019. This is only marginally above the pre-acquisition (of Coincheck) price of JPY344 (on 2nd April 2018). In the meantime, Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)  has also fallen from around USD6,000 in mid-November to around USD3,500 at present.We maintain our previous direction for Monex as we believe that upside is unlikely in the short run unless there is a significant improvement in cryptocurrency market conditions, despite the resumption of most of Coincheck's services and Monex’s share price falling almost to the pre-acquisition (of Coincheck) level.

Monex Group (8698 JP): Upside Is Unlikely Due to Weak Cryptocurrency Markets

We noted in   <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ten-years-on-asia-outperforms-advanced-economies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:27107">Ten Years On - Asia Outperforms Advanced Economies</a> Asia’s economies and companies have outperformed advanced country peers in the ten years to 2017.  Growing by 6.8%, real, through the crisis the region is 188% larger in US dollar terms while US dollar per capita incomes 170% higher compared with 2007. In this note we argue even though Asian stock markets have underperformed since 2010 and the bulk of global capital flows have gone to advanced countries, Asia’s time is coming. Valuations are cheap. Growth fundamentals strong. There are few external or internal imbalances. Macroeconomic management has been better than in advanced economies and the scope to ease policy to ward off headwinds in 2019 is greater. China has already started.

We noted in   Ten Years On - Asia Outperforms Advanced Economies Asia’s economies and companies have outperformed advanced country peers in the ten years to 2017.  Growing by 6.8%, real, through the crisis the region is 188% larger in US dollar terms while US dollar per capita incomes 170% higher compared with 2007. In this note we argue even though Asian stock markets have underperformed since 2010 and the bulk of global capital flows have gone to advanced countries, Asia’s time is coming. Valuations are cheap. Growth fundamentals strong. There are few external or internal imbalances. Macroeconomic management has been better than in advanced economies and the scope to ease policy to ward off headwinds in 2019 is greater. China has already started.

Ten Years On - Asia's Time Is Coming, Don't Miss The Boat

United States

Virtual currencies are decentralized, math-based digital assets in which transactions can be performed cryptographically without the need for a central issuing authority. The first specification and proof of concept of Bitcoin, the first widely used virtual currency, was published in 2009 based on a paper published pseudonymously by Satoshi Nakamoto.

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Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)

Hong Kong's Growth Mirage

It may not feel like it. It may not smell like it. But make no mistake Hong Kong is in recession. We are underweight in our relative regional...

Sharmila Whelan

A Coming Liquidity Boom: Buy Crypto or Gold …Gold or Crypto?

US Fed is signalling that it is virtually done with QT (quantitative tightening) Risk asset booms rest on more Global Liquidity Equities and...

Michael J. Howell

Gold Showing the Way

The USD remains mixed, but gold has developed a persistent uptrend. This may reflect underlying weakness in the USD and doubts about the state of...

Greg Gibbs

Monex Group (8698 JP): Upside Is Unlikely Due to Weak Cryptocurrency Markets

In our previous note, Monex Group (8698 JP): Weak Fundamentals Deter the Possibility of a Further Upside, we suggested that despite the partial...

Supun Walpola

Ten Years On - Asia's Time Is Coming, Don't Miss The Boat

We noted in Ten Years On - Asia Outperforms Advanced Economies Asia’s economies and companies have outperformed advanced country peers in the ten...

Sharmila Whelan

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