Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</strong></a><strong> stock is tumbling, again, and its overpriced bonds are frozen in the headlights with nowhere to go but down.</strong></p>
<p>The reason given for this latest rout is that <strong>Tesla needed to shut down production for two weeks</strong><strong>due to supply chain disruptions</strong> in parts and supplies caused by the severe winter storm which swept much of the country in recent weeks.</p>
<p><strong>Except when the stock plunged CEO Elon Musk opened</strong><strong> the plant back up after just two days</strong>.</p>
<p>Which suggests that Tesla can make all the cars its needs. <strong>It just doesn't need as many as it hoped to mean faltering demand.</strong></p>

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) stock is tumbling, again, and its overpriced bonds are frozen in the headlights with nowhere to go but down.
The reason given for this latest rout is that Tesla needed to shut down production for two weeksdue to supply chain disruptions in parts and supplies caused by the severe winter storm which swept much of the country in recent weeks.
Except when the stock plunged CEO Elon Musk opened the plant back up after just two days.
Which suggests that Tesla can make all the cars its needs. It just doesn't need as many as it hoped to mean faltering demand.

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We trace the recent media preoccupation with asset bubbles to find that fears over potential bubbles in SPACs, Clean Energy, IPOs and Bitcoin have clearly lost momentum in recent weeks</li>
<li>Talk of a "commodities supercycle" has surged to a new high, coinciding with the current wave of weather-induced energy disruptions</li>
<li>Vaccine rollout sentiment has been consistently improving for weeks, as data from France and Germany has improved slightly in the MTD while the US rollout continues to accelerate</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


We trace the recent media preoccupation with asset bubbles to find that fears over potential bubbles in SPACs, Clean Energy, IPOs and Bitcoin have clearly lost momentum in recent weeks
Talk of a "commodities supercycle" has surged to a new high, coinciding with the current wave of weather-induced energy disruptions
Vaccine rollout sentiment has been consistently improving for weeks, as data from France and Germany has improved slightly in the MTD while the US rollout continues to accelerate
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot: Bubble Fears Subside, Commodity Supercycle Views Spike, Vaccine Sentiment Rises

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-snapshot-update-on-bitcoin-vs-gold-via-text-mining" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46576" rel="noopener">TMI Snapshot:  Update on Bitcoin Vs. Gold Via Text Mining</a> we compared the trajectory of sentiment in articles discussing BTC as a "store of value" relative to similar mentions of gold; at the time, December 22, we saw a sharp divergence with BTC "store of value" sentiment at a new high of +2x STDEVs while gold was gathering significant negative momentum on the same topic</li>
<li>Trends have been mean-reverting since, with sentiment for BTC softer on the "store of value" question while gold continues to stabilize</li>
<li>The discussion of gold as an inflation hedge has made a notable comeback (volumetrically) after dropping sharply around the November elections; this has not affected the BTC inflation hedge narrative, which continues to trend despite recent volatility</li>
<li>Reports of BTC institutional adoption surged in November-December and are still trending albeit at a slower rate; but discussion of cryptocurrency regulation has surged in recent weeks to a new multi-year high</li>
<li>Mentions of BTC in conjunction with "bubble" are up 4-5x STDEVs since the second week of January</li>
<li>Based on the above signals, and in the context of the alleged "double-spend" headlines, the prevailing narrative of BTC competing with gold over the same AUM pool in a zero-sum game appears to be losing steam on the margin</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tool text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


In TMI Snapshot:  Update on Bitcoin Vs. Gold Via Text Mining we compared the trajectory of sentiment in articles discussing BTC as a "store of value" relative to similar mentions of gold; at the time, December 22, we saw a sharp divergence with BTC "store of value" sentiment at a new high of +2x STDEVs while gold was gathering significant negative momentum on the same topic
Trends have been mean-reverting since, with sentiment for BTC softer on the "store of value" question while gold continues to stabilize
The discussion of gold as an inflation hedge has made a notable comeback (volumetrically) after dropping sharply around the November elections; this has not affected the BTC inflation hedge narrative, which continues to trend despite recent volatility
Reports of BTC institutional adoption surged in November-December and are still trending albeit at a slower rate; but discussion of cryptocurrency regulation has surged in recent weeks to a new multi-year high
Mentions of BTC in conjunction with "bubble" are up 4-5x STDEVs since the second week of January
Based on the above signals, and in the context of the alleged "double-spend" headlines, the prevailing narrative of BTC competing with gold over the same AUM pool in a zero-sum game appears to be losing steam on the margin
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tool text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Bitcoin Vs. Gold Update and Recent Crypto Topics Via Text Mining

<ul>
<li>Our text-mining sees a +3x STDEV surge in mentions of Fed tapering or withdrawal of accommodation, largest since 2018</li>
<li>This follows a notable spike in the 10-year yield, and comments from regional Fed presidents Harker, Bostic, Kaplan &amp; Evans last week alluding to some tapering as early as this year or "sooner than people expect"</li>
<li>Some in the financial media (i.e. <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/fed-s-taper-talk-directed-at-bitcoin-and-tesla" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a>) have linked this development to "pervasive talk of asset bubbles" centering on Tesla and Bitcoin</li>
<li>In the aftermath of significant TIPS breakeven widening, we see notably larger magnitude and higher velocity in inflationary/reflationary expressions  (+1.5x STDEV) vs. relatively muted increase in expressions related to asset bubbles &amp; market exuberance (&lt;1x STDEV)  </li>
<li>In addition, our data shows that reporting on the Georgia Democratic Sweep was primarily focused on inflation, compared with coverage around the November elections which discussed a potential Democratic Sweep primarily in the context of increased regulation and higher taxes</li>
<li>As the evolving inflationary mindset is likely far more sticky than localized notions of an asset bubble in certain equities or cryptos, upside to yields may be underestimated along with USD support </li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


Our text-mining sees a +3x STDEV surge in mentions of Fed tapering or withdrawal of accommodation, largest since 2018
This follows a notable spike in the 10-year yield, and comments from regional Fed presidents Harker, Bostic, Kaplan &amp; Evans last week alluding to some tapering as early as this year or "sooner than people expect"
Some in the financial media (i.e. Bloomberg) have linked this development to "pervasive talk of asset bubbles" centering on Tesla and Bitcoin
In the aftermath of significant TIPS breakeven widening, we see notably larger magnitude and higher velocity in inflationary/reflationary expressions  (+1.5x STDEV) vs. relatively muted increase in expressions related to asset bubbles &amp; market exuberance (&lt;1x STDEV)  
In addition, our data shows that reporting on the Georgia Democratic Sweep was primarily focused on inflation, compared with coverage around the November elections which discussed a potential Democratic Sweep primarily in the context of increased regulation and higher taxes
As the evolving inflationary mindset is likely far more sticky than localized notions of an asset bubble in certain equities or cryptos, upside to yields may be underestimated along with USD support 
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot: Fed Tapering Talk Surge - Our Data Says This Is More About Inflation Vs. Asset Bubbles

<ul>
<li>In last month's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-snapshot-text-mining-the-thematics-behind-gold-s-disappointing-fall" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45821" rel="noopener">TMI Snapshot: Text-Mining the Thematics Behind Gold's Disappointing Fall</a> we observed a sharp decline in mentions of gold as an inflation hedge relative to a dramatic increase in mentions of Bitcoin in the same context in the media</li>
<li>Given aggressive signaling of institutional BTC adoption since, we revisit the topic of BTC vs. gold across a few vectors in effort to characterize the state of relative sentiment </li>
<li>Sentiment on BTC as a store of value is up +2x STDEVs to its highest in nearly a year, while sentiment on gold as a store of value has fallen -1.6x STDEVs to levels last seen in April, with no signs of improvement yet; volumetrically, media discussion of BTC as a store of value hit an all-time high in November and continues to increase</li>
<li>Faint signs of gold stabilization are seen in the inflation discussion, where mentions of gold in the context of inflation saw negative momentum peak at -2x STDEVs in November but have been steadying since; BTC mentions in an inflation context continued to increase sharply</li>
<li>Mentions of BTC in the context of institutional adoption began to surge 3-4x STDEVs last month, and continue to increase at the same rapid pace</li>
<li>FOMO or not, extremely low institutional &amp; family office ownership of BTC vs. elevated gold ownership provide relative tailwinds for the cryptocurrency (absent material vol spikes) while gold positioning has only partially unwound</li>
<li>At least one noted strategist cites gold's underperformance of BTC as a reason to buy bullion here, but we have yet to see a significant catalyst</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


In last month's TMI Snapshot: Text-Mining the Thematics Behind Gold's Disappointing Fall we observed a sharp decline in mentions of gold as an inflation hedge relative to a dramatic increase in mentions of Bitcoin in the same context in the media
Given aggressive signaling of institutional BTC adoption since, we revisit the topic of BTC vs. gold across a few vectors in effort to characterize the state of relative sentiment 
Sentiment on BTC as a store of value is up +2x STDEVs to its highest in nearly a year, while sentiment on gold as a store of value has fallen -1.6x STDEVs to levels last seen in April, with no signs of improvement yet; volumetrically, media discussion of BTC as a store of value hit an all-time high in November and continues to increase
Faint signs of gold stabilization are seen in the inflation discussion, where mentions of gold in the context of inflation saw negative momentum peak at -2x STDEVs in November but have been steadying since; BTC mentions in an inflation context continued to increase sharply
Mentions of BTC in the context of institutional adoption began to surge 3-4x STDEVs last month, and continue to increase at the same rapid pace
FOMO or not, extremely low institutional &amp; family office ownership of BTC vs. elevated gold ownership provide relative tailwinds for the cryptocurrency (absent material vol spikes) while gold positioning has only partially unwound
At least one noted strategist cites gold's underperformance of BTC as a reason to buy bullion here, but we have yet to see a significant catalyst
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Update on Bitcoin Vs. Gold Via Text Mining

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Virtual currencies are decentralized, math-based digital assets in which transactions can be performed cryptographically without the need for a central issuing authority. The first specification and proof of concept of Bitcoin, the first widely used virtual currency, was published in 2009 based on a paper published pseudonymously by Satoshi Nakamoto.

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Tesla Is Falling and It Can't Get Up

Tesla stock is tumbling and its overpriced bonds are frozen in the headlights with nowhere to go but down. Deliveries are sputtering, and Elon's...

Vicki Bryan

TMI Snapshot: Bubble Fears Subside, Commodity Supercycle Views Spike, Vaccine Sentiment Rises

Increased complacency has been apparent in recent weeks as bubble fears subsided on key themes thought to be potentially overextended. At the same...

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshot: Bitcoin Vs. Gold Update and Recent Crypto Topics Via Text Mining

Last month our text-mining saw powerful narratives emerge around Bitcoin as an alternative to gold, but recent vol has weakened the BTC "store of...

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshot: Fed Tapering Talk Surge - Our Data Says This Is More About Inflation Vs. Asset Bubbles

Talk of Fed tapering or withdrawal of accommodation has surged 3x STDEVs, the most since 2018. Our data suggests this has more to do with the...

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshot: Update on Bitcoin Vs. Gold Via Text Mining

We text-mine for clues on gold vs. Bitcoin as competing stores of value. The divergence in sentiment remains unrelenting, with only faint signs of...

Elan Gore

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