Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> CEO Elon Musk has been sparring for days with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bitcoin-usd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1" rel="noopener">Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)</a> fans on Twitter after his shocking and very expensive negative turn last week sent Bitcoin currency and Tesla stock into tailspins.That’s when Musk announced, <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1392602041025843203" target="_blank" rel="noopener">via Tweet</a> of course, that he suddenly was concerned about severe damage to the environment caused by bitcoin mining (see my client note <a href="https://bondangle.substack.com/p/what-elon-learned-while-i-was-working" target="_blank" rel="noopener">What Elon Learned While I Was Working</a>).It’s near impossible to believe Musk, self-proclaimed <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1387290679794089986?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DogeFather</a>, was not already well aware that cryptocurrencies have a bad reputation as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-26/is-bitcoin-mining-worth-the-environmental-cost?sref=Q1XEaVVD" target="_blank" rel="noopener">acute consumers of energy, largely produced by the dirtiest fuels</a>.So who is he really fighting?

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) CEO Elon Musk has been sparring for days with Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) fans on Twitter after his shocking and very expensive negative turn last week sent Bitcoin currency and Tesla stock into tailspins.That’s when Musk announced, via Tweet of course, that he suddenly was concerned about severe damage to the environment caused by bitcoin mining (see my client note What Elon Learned While I Was Working).It’s near impossible to believe Musk, self-proclaimed DogeFather, was not already well aware that cryptocurrencies have a bad reputation as acute consumers of energy, largely produced by the dirtiest fuels.So who is he really fighting?

For years now, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> and its ardent fans haven’t worried that none of its businesses are profitable because it has sold billions of dollars in energy emissions credits to offset its rivers of red ink (see my latest report on this, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tesla-goes-to-record-extremes-to-create-q1-profits" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50821" rel="noopener">Tesla Goes to Record Extremes To Create Q1 "Profits"</a> on 4/28/21).They dismissed concerns that every penny of cash it has ever banked came from selling said energy credits on top of selling billions in stock to said fans and borrowing even more in debt.Pull these pesky threads and everything can unravel quickly, as I long have warned (for example, in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tesla-the-sky-s-the-limit-until" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47414" rel="noopener">Tesla: The Sky's The Limit...Until</a> on 1/28/21).Sure enough, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stellantis-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:798:1" rel="noopener">Stellantis NV (STLA US)</a> told reporters this week that it <a href="https://europe.autonews.com/environmentemissions/stellantis-hit-emissions-target-without-teslas-help-ceo-tavares-says?utm_source=dlvr.it&amp;utm_medium=twitter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">expects to meet European emissions standards on its own</a> this year without buying any more credits from Tesla.That creates a big problem for Tesla because lucrative energy credit sales to Stellantis have been the primary source of all of Tesla’s manufactured “profits” since Q2 2019, which created:<ul>
<li>the basis for Tesla’s recent addition to the S&amp;P 500 Index</li>
<li>and its mythological equity valuation</li>
<li>and its ability to sell stock at grossly inflated prices</li>
<li>and its artificially inflated credit rating which lets it borrow with impunity at cheap rates.</li>
</ul>

For years now, Tesla Motors (TSLA US) and its ardent fans haven’t worried that none of its businesses are profitable because it has sold billions of dollars in energy emissions credits to offset its rivers of red ink (see my latest report on this, Tesla Goes to Record Extremes To Create Q1 "Profits" on 4/28/21).They dismissed concerns that every penny of cash it has ever banked came from selling said energy credits on top of selling billions in stock to said fans and borrowing even more in debt.Pull these pesky threads and everything can unravel quickly, as I long have warned (for example, in Tesla: The Sky's The Limit...Until on 1/28/21).Sure enough, Stellantis NV (STLA US) told reporters this week that it expects to meet European emissions standards on its own this year without buying any more credits from Tesla.That creates a big problem for Tesla because lucrative energy credit sales to Stellantis have been the primary source of all of Tesla’s manufactured “profits” since Q2 2019, which created:
the basis for Tesla’s recent addition to the S&amp;P 500 Index
and its mythological equity valuation
and its ability to sell stock at grossly inflated prices
and its artificially inflated credit rating which lets it borrow with impunity at cheap rates.


<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> doesn’t want you to worry that it needed a record $518 million in energy credit sales plus a surprising $101 million in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bitcoin-usd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1" rel="noopener">Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)</a>gains to generate the record net “profit” of $438 million it <a href="https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/R3GJMT_TSLA_Q1_2021_Update_5KJWZA.pdf?xseo=&amp;response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22TSLA-Q1-2021-Update.pdf%22" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported for the first quarter</a> versus the similarly enhanced $16 million reported last year.Otherwise you might notice that core operations actually lost nearly $200 million despite a 109% increase in deliveries to a record 184,877 versus last year. This loss was little better, and revenue was lower, versus Tesla’s disappointing fourth quarter results as I discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tesla-on-no-you-didn-t" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47527" rel="noopener">Tesla: Oh No You Didn’t</a> on 1/28/21. First quarter revenue slumped sequentially despite higher deliveries as profitability plunged on rising operating costs plus further severe price cuts still necessary to encourage sales.While Tesla had reason to worry since most of the total deliveries reported didn’t materialize until the final weeks of the quarter, it’s also easy to surmise that Tesla used its creative profit-making strategy to make sure CEO Elon Musk could snag another <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results-options-idUSL1N2MJ2RE" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$11 billion in vested stock options</a>.It’s all about priorities.

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) doesn’t want you to worry that it needed a record $518 million in energy credit sales plus a surprising $101 million in Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)gains to generate the record net “profit” of $438 million it reported for the first quarter versus the similarly enhanced $16 million reported last year.Otherwise you might notice that core operations actually lost nearly $200 million despite a 109% increase in deliveries to a record 184,877 versus last year. This loss was little better, and revenue was lower, versus Tesla’s disappointing fourth quarter results as I discussed in Tesla: Oh No You Didn’t on 1/28/21. First quarter revenue slumped sequentially despite higher deliveries as profitability plunged on rising operating costs plus further severe price cuts still necessary to encourage sales.While Tesla had reason to worry since most of the total deliveries reported didn’t materialize until the final weeks of the quarter, it’s also easy to surmise that Tesla used its creative profit-making strategy to make sure CEO Elon Musk could snag another $11 billion in vested stock options.It’s all about priorities.

Tesla Goes to Record Extremes To Create Q1 "Profits"

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin has been trending above its 55 day moving average since October 2020Amazingly in that short space of time we had rallied some 480%However over the past 24 hours, we have taken out that 55 day moving average and have continued lower - what next?

Bitcoin has been trending above its 55 day moving average since October 2020Amazingly in that short space of time we had rallied some 480%However over the past 24 hours, we have taken out that 55 day moving average and have continued lower - what next?

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>High street inflation has two components: monetary inflation and cost inflation
</li>
<li>Gold price is sensitive to monetary inflation and it is trading well-below its ‘liquidity-based’ fair-value</li>
<li>Existence of Bitcoin as a rival monetary inflation hedge has lopped-off US$158/oz from gold’s ‘fair-value’</li>
<li>Gold price ‘fair value’ assuming unchanged Bitcoin is US$2527/oz</li>
<li>But on same basis, Bitcoin’s liquidity-based fair-value assuming no change in gold price, is a staggering US$341250/coin</li>
</ul>


High street inflation has two components: monetary inflation and cost inflation

Gold price is sensitive to monetary inflation and it is trading well-below its ‘liquidity-based’ fair-value
Existence of Bitcoin as a rival monetary inflation hedge has lopped-off US$158/oz from gold’s ‘fair-value’
Gold price ‘fair value’ assuming unchanged Bitcoin is US$2527/oz
But on same basis, Bitcoin’s liquidity-based fair-value assuming no change in gold price, is a staggering US$341250/coin


Bitcoin US$341,250? This Is Not a Forecast….Well Not Yet!

United States

Virtual currencies are decentralized, math-based digital assets in which transactions can be performed cryptographically without the need for a central issuing authority. The first specification and proof of concept of Bitcoin, the first widely used virtual currency, was published in 2009 based on a paper published pseudonymously by Satoshi Nakamoto.

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Tesla: Who Is The Enemy Now?

CEO Elon Musk spent the weekend battling Bitcoin fans on Twitter after his shocking and very expensive about-face on the cryptocurrency he made...

Vicki Bryan

Tesla: So Long, Free Money

Stellantis says it will stop buying billions of dollars in energy credits from Tesla, leaving a giant hole in Tesla's "profit" potential and...

Vicki Bryan

Tesla Goes to Record Extremes To Create Q1 "Profits"

Tesla needed a whopping 46% increase in energy credit sales and sizable gains from selling recently bought Bitcoin to produce Q1 "profit"—and an...

Vicki Bryan

A BIT of COIN Flip

The break lower on Bitcoin over the past 24 hours through key levels now reveals a picture that can only be described as 'worrying' in the short term

Shyam Devani

Bitcoin US$341,250? This Is Not a Forecast….Well Not Yet!

Gold been lackluster. Why? Pat of the reason may be rivalry from Bitcoin? Assuming Bitcoin remains unchanged, gold's fair-value is $2527/oz. But...

Michael J. Howell

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tesla: Who Is The Enemy Now?

CEO Elon Musk spent the weekend battling Bitcoin fans on Twitter after his shocking and very expensive about-face on the cryptocurrency he made...

Vicki Bryan

Tesla: So Long, Free Money

Stellantis says it will stop buying billions of dollars in energy credits from Tesla, leaving a giant hole in Tesla's "profit" potential and...

Vicki Bryan

Tesla Goes to Record Extremes To Create Q1 "Profits"

Tesla needed a whopping 46% increase in energy credit sales *and* sizable gains from selling recently bought Bitcoin to produce Q1 "profit"—and an...

Vicki Bryan

A BIT of COIN Flip

The break lower on Bitcoin over the past 24 hours through key levels now reveals a picture that can only be described as 'worrying' in the short term

Shyam Devani

Bitcoin US$341,250? This Is Not a Forecast….Well Not Yet!

Gold been lackluster. Why? Pat of the reason may be rivalry from Bitcoin? Assuming Bitcoin remains unchanged, gold's fair-value is $2527/oz. But...

Michael J. Howell

Tesla needed a whopping 46% increase in energy credit sales and sizable gains from selling recently bought Bitcoin to produce Q1 "profit"—and an...