EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Against market expectations the British have voted to exit the European Union, a process that could take a few years. The first order impact is being felt in the Eurozone, but the shockwaves could lead to one more leg down in Emerging Markets and potentially the US this year.

Against market expectations the British have voted to exit the European Union, a process that could take a few years. The first order impact is being felt in the Eurozone, but the shockwaves could lead to one more leg down in Emerging Markets and potentially the US this year.

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Forget everything you learned about Millennials....Millennials were ‘digital’ as defined by the discrete electronic tasks they performed on laptops, iPods or mobile handsets. Generation Hashtag, by contrast, is ‘born digital’.Generation Hashtag has never seen a world without the Internet. They were born into smartphones, social media and the sharing economy. They are technology reliant, hyper-aware and extremely demanding. They are the first generation not to have to read or typed using a computer. For them, it is a world of touch screens filled with constellations of online apps.... and focus on Generation HashtagAged 10 to 24 and numbering about 1.2 billion people worldwide, Generation Hashtag comprises the younger Millennials and the older cohorts of Generation Z. Every year for the next decade, at least one hundred million of them will enter the world of work. They do things differently to previous generations. They will soon become the primary agenda setters for the corporate world, quite literally forcing corporations to re-compile the world using a ‘native digital first’ mindset.

Forget everything you learned about Millennials....Millennials were ‘digital’ as defined by the discrete electronic tasks they performed on laptops, iPods or mobile handsets. Generation Hashtag, by contrast, is ‘born digital’.Generation Hashtag has never seen a world without the Internet. They were born into smartphones, social media and the sharing economy. They are technology reliant, hyper-aware and extremely demanding. They are the first generation not to have to read or typed using a computer. For them, it is a world of touch screens filled with constellations of online apps.... and focus on Generation HashtagAged 10 to 24 and numbering about 1.2 billion people worldwide, Generation Hashtag comprises the younger Millennials and the older cohorts of Generation Z. Every year for the next decade, at least one hundred million of them will enter the world of work. They do things differently to previous generations. They will soon become the primary agenda setters for the corporate world, quite literally forcing corporations to re-compile the world using a ‘native digital first’ mindset.

Generation Hashtag as an Investment Theme

M&A Reporting, CTFN

Jonathan Spitzer

M&A Reporting

CTFN

Bringing the marketplace leading coverage of mergers, events, and major corporate actions, CTFN has a team of seasoned reporters from Los Angeles to London, publishing news that advances stories that matter to event-driven investors and deal professionals.

Event-Driven

The dam burst involving Samarco, the Brazilian joint venture between mining giants BHP Billiton and Vale S.A., is having devastating consequences for the parties, sources close to the situation told CTFN.

The dam burst involving Samarco, the Brazilian joint venture between mining giants BHP Billiton and Vale S.A., is having devastating consequences for the parties, sources close to the situation told CTFN.

Samarco Litigation Process Expected to Drag

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li class="p1">The Federal Public Prosecution Service in Brazil is seeking USD 43 billion in compensation from Samarco, Vale, and BHP Billiton for the Samarco tailings dam failure.</li><li class="p1">If successful with the full amount, a worst case that we think highly improbable, BHP Billiton's share of the damages would equate to USD 21.5 billion or AUD 5.35 per share.</li><li class="p1">We think the claim is opportunistic and unlikely to be resolved at an amount anywhere near as large as the headline figure suggests.....</li></ul>Analysts: Mathew Hodge &amp; David Wang

The Federal Public Prosecution Service in Brazil is seeking USD 43 billion in compensation from Samarco, Vale, and BHP Billiton for the Samarco tailings dam failure.If successful with the full amount, a worst case that we think highly improbable, BHP Billiton's share of the damages would equate to USD 21.5 billion or AUD 5.35 per share.We think the claim is opportunistic and unlikely to be resolved at an amount anywhere near as large as the headline figure suggests.....Analysts: Mathew Hodge &amp; David Wang

Ambitious Lawsuit Against Samarco and BHP Billiton

Temporary tightness should abate as demand falters and supply surges.<ul><li class="p1">Iron ore prices have surged to $69 per tonne, up 23% from last week and continuing their recent upward trend from a bottom of $37 per tonne in December.</li><li class="p1">Leveraged mining stocks are also up by double-digit levels this week, having already more than doubled since February.</li><li class="p1">We think this rally is unsustainable, as it is based on short-lived demand measures and near-term supply disruptions.</li><li class="p1">As temporary tightness in the market abates, iron ore prices should fall by more than half to $30 per tonne in the long term, driven by falling Chinese steel demand and rising scrap availability.</li></ul>Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr and Mathew Hodge

Temporary tightness should abate as demand falters and supply surges.Iron ore prices have surged to $69 per tonne, up 23% from last week and continuing their recent upward trend from a bottom of $37 per tonne in December.Leveraged mining stocks are also up by double-digit levels this week, having already more than doubled since February.We think this rally is unsustainable, as it is based on short-lived demand measures and near-term supply disruptions.As temporary tightness in the market abates, iron ore prices should fall by more than half to $30 per tonne in the long term, driven by falling Chinese steel demand and rising scrap availability.Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr and Mathew Hodge

Australia

BHP Billiton Limited is an international resources company.  The Company's principal business lines are mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining.  Dually-listed company with BLT LN.

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BHP Group Ltd (BHP US)

Will Brexit Break EM's Back?

Against market expectations the British have voted to exit the European Union, a process that could take a few years. The first order impact is...

Emad Mostaque

Generation Hashtag as an Investment Theme

Forget everything you learned about Millennials....Millennials were ‘digital’ as defined by the discrete electronic tasks they performed on...

CM Research

Samarco Litigation Process Expected to Drag

The dam burst involving Samarco, the Brazilian joint venture between mining giants BHP Billiton and Vale S.A., is having devastating consequences...

CTFN

Ambitious Lawsuit Against Samarco and BHP Billiton

The Federal Public Prosecution Service in Brazil is seeking USD 43 billion in compensation from Samarco, Vale, and BHP Billiton for the Samarco...

Morningstar, Inc.

Iron Ore Rally Unsustainable

Temporary tightness should abate as demand falters and supply surges. Iron ore prices have surged to $69 per tonne, up 23% from last week and...

Morningstar, Inc.

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