Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The projected outlook for agricultural and food businesses in 2Q24E indicates a notable recovery both YoY and QoQ.</li><li>In particular, major meat operators, including those engaged in the swine business in Vietnam, are anticipated to shift from losses in 2Q23 to profits, with further growth expected from their reported better-than- expected operating results in 1Q24.</li><li>Consequently, we have revised our profit forecasts upward for CPF, TFG and SAPPE. While acknowledging the sector's rebound in operating results, driving up share prices, we maintain a Neutral rating due to stretched valuations, as indicated by the earnings yield method. </li></ul>

The projected outlook for agricultural and food businesses in 2Q24E indicates a notable recovery both YoY and QoQ.In particular, major meat operators, including those engaged in the swine business in Vietnam, are anticipated to shift from losses in 2Q23 to profits, with further growth expected from their reported better-than- expected operating results in 1Q24.Consequently, we have revised our profit forecasts upward for CPF, TFG and SAPPE. While acknowledging the sector's rebound in operating results, driving up share prices, we maintain a Neutral rating due to stretched valuations, as indicated by the earnings yield method. 

Agri & Food: Momentum in 2Q24E Expected to Grow YoY and QoQ

<ul><li>The Thai swine industry is anticipated to face continued challenges this year, though not as severe as the difficulties encountered in 2023.</li><li>During that period, major operators experienced losses due to rising costs and declining prices, exacerbated by an influx of illegal swine supply and further compounded by sluggish consumption.</li><li>In 1H24E, domestic swine supply is projected to stabilize, with excess supply gradually diminishing.</li></ul>

The Thai swine industry is anticipated to face continued challenges this year, though not as severe as the difficulties encountered in 2023.During that period, major operators experienced losses due to rising costs and declining prices, exacerbated by an influx of illegal swine supply and further compounded by sluggish consumption.In 1H24E, domestic swine supply is projected to stabilize, with excess supply gradually diminishing.

Meat Sector – Thai Swine Prices to Recover in 2H24E

Equity Bottom-Up

<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>BTG’s two-year earnings (2022-24E) are expected to mark a -18% CAGR, vs. a +9% CAGR expected previously, owing to the sharp falls of broiler and swine prices since the beginning of the year.</li>
<li>Our valuation metrics prompts us to revise down our rating to Underperform (from Outperform) because the share price is fully valued and implies no tactical upside.</li>
<li>BTG has revised down its 2023 sales growth target further to 5-10% (vs. 8-12% previously) because both swine and broiler prices have fallen sharply.</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>






BTG’s two-year earnings (2022-24E) are expected to mark a -18% CAGR, vs. a +9% CAGR expected previously, owing to the sharp falls of broiler and swine prices since the beginning of the year.
Our valuation metrics prompts us to revise down our rating to Underperform (from Outperform) because the share price is fully valued and implies no tactical upside.
BTG has revised down its 2023 sales growth target further to 5-10% (vs. 8-12% previously) because both swine and broiler prices have fallen sharply.






BETAGRO - Earnings Projections Cut; 2-Year Profit Estimated at A -18% CAGR

<ul><li>A livestock producer with a vertically integrated business model. Planed Capex of Bt5.85bn in 2023E for capacity expansion</li><li>4Q22E profit to grow 99% YoY but fall 23% QoQ. Three-year core profit growth to achieve a 9% CAGR (2022-24E)</li><li>Strong financial position, with expected better debt to EBITDA. 2023E fair value derived at Bt40.40 (based on a PER of 10x)</li></ul>

A livestock producer with a vertically integrated business model. Planed Capex of Bt5.85bn in 2023E for capacity expansion4Q22E profit to grow 99% YoY but fall 23% QoQ. Three-year core profit growth to achieve a 9% CAGR (2022-24E)Strong financial position, with expected better debt to EBITDA. 2023E fair value derived at Bt40.40 (based on a PER of 10x)

Betagro - Three-Year Earnings to Achieve a 9% CAGR

Thailand

Thai Union Group Public Company Limited produces and exports frozen and canned seafood products including frozen tuna loin, shrimp and cephalopod. The Company also produces canned pet foods from by products of its seafood process.  Additionally, the Company produces fish snack and canned tuna which are marketed locally.

Sappe Public Company Limited manufactures and distributes health drinks. The Company manufactures dietary and fruit juice drinks. Sappe distributes their products internationally.

President Bakery PCL produces and distributes a wide variety of baked goods to fast food restaurants and convenient stores.  The company also sells its product through its own retail stores under Farmhouse shop and Deliya by Farmhouse.

Ichitan Group PCL operates in the beverage industry. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and distributes a variety of tea beverages.

Thaitheparos PCL manufactures food seasoning products including flavor sauce, vinegar, chili sauce, tomato sauce, oyster sauce, chili and tomato sauce, soy sauce, and powdered sauce, under branded names.  The Company also produces canned fruits.

Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited produces and markets soybean cooking oil under its A-ngoon brand name.  Additionally, the Company produced other soybean products including soymeal, full-fat soy, cooked and un-extracted soybeanseed, and lecithin.  Its products are also used in industrial applications such as the production of paint or canned food.

GFPT Public Company Limited produces frozen chicken parts and distributes its products under GFPT, Common Food, and Nichirei Core.  The Company sells its products to domestic and export markets.

Kaset Thai International Sugar Corp PCL produces and distributes sugar to domestic and international clients.  The Company also produces bio products, which are used by-products from sugar production as raw materials, such as paper pulp from bagasse, and, ethanol from molasses and electrical energy from biomass.

Kaset Thai International Sugar Corp (KTIS TB)

Exotic Food Public Company Limited manufactures Thai food products that are sold in independent food stores globally.

Khon Kaen Sugar Industry PCL produces sugar, energy and agricultural products. The Company produces sugar and molasses, fertilizers, ethanol, and electricity.

Xinjiang Tecon Animal Husbandry Bio-Technology Co., Ltd. is engaged in producing and distributing feeds and feed additives. The Company also produces and sells veterinary drugs, agricucutural and milk products.

Xinjiang Tecon Anml Hsbndry Bio Tchnlgy (002100 CH)

Visionox Technology Inc. manufactures electronic components. The Company researches, develops, produces, and sells organic light emitting displays. Visionox Technology markets its products domestically and overseas.

Star Lake Bioscience Co., Inc. Zhaoqing Guangdong manufactures and markets biochemical pharmaceuticals and seasoning products, including inosine medicines, L-proline medicines, monosodium glutamate and other related products.  The Company also operates in real estate development.

Starlake Bioscience Co Inc Zhqng Gngdng (600866 CH)

Yunnan Energy Investment CO.,LTD manufactures and distributes chemical products. The Company produces table salt, industrial salt, glauber salt, and other related products. Yunnan Energy Investment also participates in the natural gas industry.

Yunnan Salt & Chemical Industry Co., (002053 CH)

Hunan New Wellful Co., Ltd. operates pig farms and trades pigs. The Company exports pigs to Hong Kong and Macau as well as sells them domestically.

ARIAKE JAPAN Co., Ltd. produces natural seasonings and flavorings from meat products.  The Company sells the products to major food makers such as Ajinomoto Co., Ltd. and Myojo Foods Co., Ltd.  Ariake also has a plant in the United States.

Shree Renuka Sugars Limited is an integrated manufacturing company with a focus on sugar, distillery products and ethanol. The Company also generates power which is used for captive consumption besides being sold externally.

Del Monte Pacific Limited produces and markets packaged vegetable and fruit, beverage and culinary products. The Group has the exclusive right to use the Del Monte brand for packaged products in the USA, South America, Philippines, the Indian subcontinent and Myanmar, and the S&W brand for both packaged and fresh products globally except Australia and New Zealand.

Great Wall Enterprise Co., Ltd. produces and markets livestock feeds, cooking oils, and meat products.

Ottogi Corporation manufactures food seasonings and instant food, such as mayonnaise, ketchup, salad dressing, sesame and cooking oils, and instant curry. The Company also produces frozen salads, fruit preservatives, instant noodles, and canned tuna.

Betagro Public Company Limited manufactures agricultural food products. The Company offers animal feed, raises livestock, produces animal health products, and markets meat products for human consumption. Betagro serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Betagro (BTG TB)

Agri & Food: Momentum in 2Q24E Expected to Grow YoY and QoQ

In particular, major meat operators, including those engaged in the swine business in Vietnam, are anticipated to shift from losses in 2Q23 to profits

Krungthai XSpring

Meat Sector – Thai Swine Prices to Recover in 2H24E

The Thai swine industry is anticipated to face continued challenges this year, though not as severe as the difficulties encountered in 2023.

Krungthai XSpring

BETAGRO - Earnings Projections Cut; 2-Year Profit Estimated at A -18% CAGR

BTG’s two-year earnings (2022-24E) are expected to mark a -18% CAGR, vs. a +9% CAGR expected previously, owing to the sharp falls of broiler and...

Krungthai XSpring

Betagro - Three-Year Earnings to Achieve a 9% CAGR

A livestock producer with a vertically integrated business model. Planed Capex of Bt5.85bn in 2023E for capacity expansion

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)