Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> CEO Elon Musk should be having a great week. But then the stock dropped on news the company plans to raise another $5 billion from selling stock. Then he complained to the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-decries-m-b-a-ization-of-america-11607548589" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Wall Street Journal</a> that there were too many MBA-types paying too much attention to financial performance of companies and not enough on producing quality products.Which is very interesting because this seems to me to be exactly what Tesla does, not that it seemed to deter investors one bit from gobbling up its $5 billion secondary offering.<a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-jobs-report-was-ugly-but-it-may-be-good-news-for-stocks-51607130127" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Barron's</a> noticed it too, and how much Tesla,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doordash-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28881:1" rel="noopener">DoorDash Inc (DASH US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airbnb-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:431:1" rel="noopener">Airbnb Inc (ABNBUS)</a> and other similarly inflated deals out this week felt like 1999—and not in a good way.

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) CEO Elon Musk should be having a great week. But then the stock dropped on news the company plans to raise another $5 billion from selling stock. Then he complained to the Wall Street Journal that there were too many MBA-types paying too much attention to financial performance of companies and not enough on producing quality products.Which is very interesting because this seems to me to be exactly what Tesla does, not that it seemed to deter investors one bit from gobbling up its $5 billion secondary offering.Barron's noticed it too, and how much Tesla,DoorDash Inc (DASH US), and Airbnb Inc (ABNBUS) and other similarly inflated deals out this week felt like 1999—and not in a good way.

Barron's Weighs in On "Frenzied Pops" Like Tesla Vs Wary Skeptics Like...

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> announced Tuesday morning that it plans to raise up to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-plans-stock-sale-closing-year-of-soaring-gains-11607444177?mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$5 billion in new sales of stock</a> over time at prevailing market prices. As the third offering this year, including just three months ago, Tesla stands to raise more than $12 billion.And why not, say Tesla fans. With the stock up 674% so far this year, it has become only the <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-becomes-only-the-sixth-company-to-top-600-billion-in-value-51607377650" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sixth company ever to hit $600 </a><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-becomes-only-the-sixth-company-to-top-600-billion-in-value-51607377650" target="_blank" rel="noopener">billion</a> in market value. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-to-be-added-to-s-p-500-index-11605566006?mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In two weeks it will added</a> to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a>.Such blind enthusiasm dismisses Tesla's problematic sales trends, its chronic lack of core unprofitability and free cash flow, it's increasingly threatened prospects, and more.Or that Tesla needs to borrow every quarter and stretch its payables and sell record amounts of stock after reporting last January that it had “<a href="https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/O7WXQA_TSLA_Update_Letter_2019-4Q_BPWOH4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">grown to the point of being self-funding</a>.” Not even close.Yet investors remain unconcerned, and Tesla knows it.<div class="content-highlight">The full Bond Angle report continues below.</div>

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) announced Tuesday morning that it plans to raise up to $5 billion in new sales of stock over time at prevailing market prices. As the third offering this year, including just three months ago, Tesla stands to raise more than $12 billion.And why not, say Tesla fans. With the stock up 674% so far this year, it has become only the sixth company ever to hit $600 billion in market value. In two weeks it will added to the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX).Such blind enthusiasm dismisses Tesla's problematic sales trends, its chronic lack of core unprofitability and free cash flow, it's increasingly threatened prospects, and more.Or that Tesla needs to borrow every quarter and stretch its payables and sell record amounts of stock after reporting last January that it had “grown to the point of being self-funding.” Not even close.Yet investors remain unconcerned, and Tesla knows it.The full Bond Angle report continues below.

Tesla to Sell Another $5 Billion in Stock—Might As Well

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

A short while ago, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20201116-1258362/1258362_tdec215addconsult.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> effective after the close of trading on 18 December. The deletion will be announced later.S&amp;P DJI have also announced they will be conducting a <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/governance/consultations/sp500consultationonimplementationoftslaaddition11-16-20.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">market consultation</a> on whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> should be added to the S&amp;P500 all at once or in two tranches to reduce the impact of the funding trade.From the numbers, the market should be able to absorb the buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> and the selling on the other index constituents pretty easily. However, with Christmas just a week away from the implementation date and possibly lower liquidity, market participants may have different views and the trade could be split into two tranches.

A short while ago, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices announced the inclusion of Tesla Motors (TSLA US) in the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) effective after the close of trading on 18 December. The deletion will be announced later.S&amp;P DJI have also announced they will be conducting a market consultation on whether Tesla Motors (TSLA US) should be added to the S&amp;P500 all at once or in two tranches to reduce the impact of the funding trade.From the numbers, the market should be able to absorb the buying on Tesla Motors (TSLA US) and the selling on the other index constituents pretty easily. However, with Christmas just a week away from the implementation date and possibly lower liquidity, market participants may have different views and the trade could be split into two tranches.

Tesla: S&P500 Inclusion (Finally) Secured

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Warren Buffett's dream business, well exemplified by Berkshire's See's Candies, is the one that can deliver a sizable increase in earnings power through minimal capital reinvested;</li>
<li>The quality above is what exactly is missing among most Chinese companies these days, in our opinion;</li>
<li>Nonetheless, we managed to land on three businesses that share such a rare characteristic.</li>
</ul>


Warren Buffett's dream business, well exemplified by Berkshire's See's Candies, is the one that can deliver a sizable increase in earnings power through minimal capital reinvested;
The quality above is what exactly is missing among most Chinese companies these days, in our opinion;
Nonetheless, we managed to land on three businesses that share such a rare characteristic.


Three Chinese Stocks that Meet Warren Buffett's Definition Of "Dream Business"

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/033/original/2020-09-15_10-23-17.png?1600133037" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159033"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>THE BUFFETT TRADE - Much has already written on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8635:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway</a>'s purchase of stakes in Japan's sogo shosha, including on this <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-quick-look-at-the-buffet-trade-and-the-most-obvious-follow-ons" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43125" rel="noopener">platform</a>. The Japanese trading houses have a long and proud tradition and continue to attract the best talent from at home and abroad. In many respects, they have similarities with BH given their long-term approach to investing and focus on free cash flow generation. The differences are as striking, particularly the exposure to commodities and Asia, and the implications for both BH and Japan are profound.In this DETAIL section, we examine: -<ul>
<li>the macro 'logic' driving these investments,</li>
<li>a more appropriate analytical and valuation methodology for these companies</li>
<li>the historically most-correlated peer groups and companies from both a technical and fundamental perspective if this trade were to be applied more broadly to the Japanese market. </li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">We can summarise our approach to understanding the rationale behind the Buffett trade in the chart below. The sogo shosha are, in aggregate, significant generators of Residual Comprehensive Income, particularly relative to their current market valuations. Priced at a historically low 0.93x book, Japan's trading houses are one of the world's better deep value trades.</div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/053/original/2020-09-15_13-42-01.png?1600144936" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159053"></figure>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsTHE BUFFETT TRADE - Much has already written on Berkshire Hathaway's purchase of stakes in Japan's sogo shosha, including on this platform. The Japanese trading houses have a long and proud tradition and continue to attract the best talent from at home and abroad. In many respects, they have similarities with BH given their long-term approach to investing and focus on free cash flow generation. The differences are as striking, particularly the exposure to commodities and Asia, and the implications for both BH and Japan are profound.In this DETAIL section, we examine: -
the macro 'logic' driving these investments,
a more appropriate analytical and valuation methodology for these companies
the historically most-correlated peer groups and companies from both a technical and fundamental perspective if this trade were to be applied more broadly to the Japanese market. 
We can summarise our approach to understanding the rationale behind the Buffett trade in the chart below. The sogo shosha are, in aggregate, significant generators of Residual Comprehensive Income, particularly relative to their current market valuations. Priced at a historically low 0.93x book, Japan's trading houses are one of the world's better deep value trades.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Analysing The "Buffett Trade", Valuing the Sogo Shosha & The Return of Asian Inflation

United States

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is a holding company owning subsidiaries in a variety of business sectors.  The Company's principal operations are insurance business conducted nationwide on a primary basis and worldwide on a reinsurance basis. Berkshire's other operations include a railway company, a specialty chemical company, and an international association of diversified businesses.

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Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US)

Barron's Weighs in On "Frenzied Pops" Like Tesla Vs Wary Skeptics Like...

Barron's notes "frenzied" deals this week like Tesla, DoorDash, and AirBnB seem like 1999 exuberance all over again, but there also are "skilled"...

Vicki Bryan

Tesla to Sell Another $5 Billion in Stock—Might As Well

Tesla is selling another $5 billion in stock—because it can and, surprisingly, it probably needs the cash. That doesn't mean investors should buy.

Vicki Bryan

Tesla: S&P500 Inclusion (Finally) Secured

Tesla has been included in the S&P500 after 5 consecutive quarters of profitability. The passive buying on Tesla will be around US$54bn and the...

Brian Freitas

Three Chinese Stocks that Meet Warren Buffett's Definition Of "Dream Business"

We have developed two primary metrics to gauge the "dream business" quality of business: i.e., the return on retained earnings and the incremental...

Steven Chen

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Analysing The "Buffett Trade", Valuing the Sogo Shosha & The Return of Asian Inflation

THE BUFFETT TRADE - Much has written on $ber

Campbell Gunn

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