Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Intensifying concerns about China as it registered its slowest growth since 1990 set the tone for a roller-coaster ride in 2016. The largest emerging country expanded 6.9%y/y in 2015, prompting the IMF to slash its global growth forecast for the third time in less than a year. Drewry Port Index fell 14% in the first three weeks of trading. The divergence between MSCI World and Drewry Port Index is the greatest since January 2015, pointing to a value buy for the port index compared with a year ago.

Intensifying concerns about China as it registered its slowest growth since 1990 set the tone for a roller-coaster ride in 2016. The largest emerging country expanded 6.9%y/y in 2015, prompting the IMF to slash its global growth forecast for the third time in less than a year. Drewry Port Index fell 14% in the first three weeks of trading. The divergence between MSCI World and Drewry Port Index is the greatest since January 2015, pointing to a value buy for the port index compared with a year ago.

Port Operators 2016 - Sieve Out Value Companies Amid Slowing Trade Growth

Seven years after the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, the supply-demand balance of the container shipping industry remains precarious. We expect this to continue in 2016 where imbalances at the trade route level and insufficient measures to reduce ship capacity will further accelerate freight rate reductions and industry losses. We expect 2016 to be dominated by continued weak global trade growth, sustained erosion in freight rates and weakened balance sheets – each unfavourable to a major recovery in share prices, in our view”

Seven years after the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, the supply-demand balance of the container shipping industry remains precarious. We expect this to continue in 2016 where imbalances at the trade route level and insufficient measures to reduce ship capacity will further accelerate freight rate reductions and industry losses. We expect 2016 to be dominated by continued weak global trade growth, sustained erosion in freight rates and weakened balance sheets – each unfavourable to a major recovery in share prices, in our view”

Container Shipping 2016 – Operators Facing Prisoner's Dilemma; Industry Could Lose USD 5bn in 2016

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The most compelling equity ideas globally from Morningstar's coverage universe.</li><li>Updated for February 2016.</li><li>Recent Asian additions: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/443" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443">ANz Bank,</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/914" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:914">Platinum Asset Management</a>.</li><li>Recent Asian deletions: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/711" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711">Santos</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/693" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:693">Brambles</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/917" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:917">Csl Ltd</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/958" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958">Qube Holdings</a></li></ul>Analysts: Michael Holt CFA

The most compelling equity ideas globally from Morningstar's coverage universe.Updated for February 2016.Recent Asian additions: ANz Bank, and Platinum Asset Management.Recent Asian deletions: Santos, Brambles, Csl Ltd &amp; Qube HoldingsAnalysts: Michael Holt CFA

2015: Investors catch a falling knife disguised as pocket of value<img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/004/981/original/Price%20Performance.JPG?1452658223" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="4981"> Source: Bloomberg, DMER<ul>
<li>Investors suffered massive wealth erosion in 2015, as share prices of dry bulk companies kept tumbling during the year. DMER’s shipping index, which is based on the market cap of leading dry bulk companies, was down ~43% in 2015.</li>
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Dry bulk owners were confronted with weak shipping demand because of the slowdown in Chinese economy, which resulted in huge losses. BDI touched record lows of 415 at the onset of…</li>
</ul>

2015: Investors catch a falling knife disguised as pocket of value Source: Bloomberg, DMER
Investors suffered massive wealth erosion in 2015, as share prices of dry bulk companies kept tumbling during the year. DMER’s shipping index, which is based on the market cap of leading dry bulk companies, was down ~43% in 2015.

Dry bulk owners were confronted with weak shipping demand because of the slowdown in Chinese economy, which resulted in huge losses. BDI touched record lows of 415 at the onset of…


Dry Bulk Shipping - 2016 - Falling Knife Disguised as Pocket of Value ?

The accounting research firm, GMT Research

Lisa Mangkornkarn

The accounting research firm

GMT Research

GMT Research provides independent insight into markets, sectors and companies throughout Asia. Our unique method of mining a comprehensive collection of corporate financial statements for key data allows us to evaluate the financial health of a company, sectors and the market at large. We also investigate the application of accounting standards by companies and sectors, shedding light on the quality of reported profits. Armed with this information, we help investment professionals navigate the financial landscape.

Beijing Enterprises Water Group / Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Enterprises Water (BEW, 371 HK), AirAsia and Noble Group have a lot in common: They book profits but fail to generate cash. At each company this has led to highly levered balance sheets with scant underlying cash inflows from which to service debt. In our report on BEW, we explain how the company uses questionable accounting assumptions and disclosure to hide the fact that cash-backed profits are less than half the reported numbers. Large deferred tax liabilities would appear to confirm the scale of this accounting mirage. BEW continues to grow using borrowed money and, as a result, is now over-leveraged. This situation is made worse by much of its debt being offshore and unhedged. The company is now reliant on capital markets to fund its capex and debt repayment. Should the renminbi weaken or credit markets tighten the business model could rapidly unravel. We think the stock worth just 50% of book value at HK$0.95/share, some 80% below current levels.

Beijing Enterprises Water (BEW, 371 HK), AirAsia and Noble Group have a lot in common: They book profits but fail to generate cash. At each company this has led to highly levered balance sheets with scant underlying cash inflows from which to service debt. In our report on BEW, we explain how the company uses questionable accounting assumptions and disclosure to hide the fact that cash-backed profits are less than half the reported numbers. Large deferred tax liabilities would appear to confirm the scale of this accounting mirage. BEW continues to grow using borrowed money and, as a result, is now over-leveraged. This situation is made worse by much of its debt being offshore and unhedged. The company is now reliant on capital markets to fund its capex and debt repayment. Should the renminbi weaken or credit markets tighten the business model could rapidly unravel. We think the stock worth just 50% of book value at HK$0.95/share, some 80% below current levels.

Beijing Enterprises Water: Show Me the Money!

Hong Kong

Beijing Enterprises Holdings Ltd. is a diversified company.  The Company brews beer; distributes natural gas through pipelines; invests in, designs, constructs and operates water supply and wastewater treatment plants; operates toll roads; disposes of hazardous waste; and offers electronic payment systems.

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Beijing Enterprises Hldgs (392 HK)

Port Operators 2016 - Sieve Out Value Companies Amid Slowing Trade Growth

Intensifying concerns about China as it registered its slowest growth since 1990 set the tone for a roller-coaster ride in 2016. The largest...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Shipping 2016 – Operators Facing Prisoner's Dilemma; Industry Could Lose USD 5bn in 2016

Seven years after the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, the supply-demand balance of the container shipping industry remains...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Equity Best Ideas

The most compelling equity ideas globally from Morningstar's coverage universe. Updated for February 2016. Recent Asian additions: ANz...

Morningstar, Inc.

Dry Bulk Shipping - 2016 - Falling Knife Disguised as Pocket of Value ?

2015: Investors catch a falling knife disguised as pocket of value Source: Bloomberg, DMER Investors suffered massive wealth erosion in 2015, as...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Beijing Enterprises Water: Show Me the Money!

Beijing Enterprises Water (BEW, 371 HK), AirAsia and Noble Group have a lot in common: They book profits but fail to generate cash. At each company...

GMT Research

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