Research on Tech Companies

Evelyn Zhang

Equity Bottom-Up

New Oriental Education & Techn / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Oriental Selection achieves high-speed user growth through bilingual livestreaming, thanks to Douyin's  algorithmic recommendation mechanism before 6/18 ecommerce, after 6/18 the increase in the follower numbers &amp; GMV dropped sharply.</li>
<li>The unit price of the product is below average, due to the focus on produce and books, Agricultural livestreaming has always been a difficult to grow category</li>
<li>10%-15% Commission  is lower than industry average, and subsequent supply chain control and 1st party products have lower margins.</li>
</ul>


Oriental Selection achieves high-speed user growth through bilingual livestreaming, thanks to Douyin's  algorithmic recommendation mechanism before 6/18 ecommerce, after 6/18 the increase in the follower numbers &amp; GMV dropped sharply.
The unit price of the product is below average, due to the focus on produce and books, Agricultural livestreaming has always been a difficult to grow category
10%-15% Commission  is lower than industry average, and subsequent supply chain control and 1st party products have lower margins.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a> is the world's largest mobility technology platform by annual active users and by average daily transactions for the twelve months ended 31 March 2021, according to CIC. DiDi has endured a torrid time since its listing on 30 June to raise net proceeds of $4,331.6 million at $14.00 per ADS. </p><p>The shares are trading 40% below its IPO price as days after its listing, DiDi’s apps were taken down from app stores in China by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC). DiDi ran afoul of CAC when it pressed ahead with its listing, despite CAC asking it to put the listing on hold while it conducted a cybersecurity review of its collection and use of personal information. Subsequently, the official Xinhua news agency on 10 October claimed that the CAC probe was aimed at “<em>effectively preventing potential national security risks relating to procurement, data processing and overseas listings.</em>”</p><p>DIDi has been ensnared by regulatory probes into its pricing mechanisms and the way it treats its drivers. DiDi also been subject to rumours in the press that the Chinese government is weighing asserting state control by taking a stake in the company. Press reports have also suggested that DiDi is planning to delist from the US which was later confirmed by DiDi to be false.</p><p>Since the regulatory clampdown, DiDi has not released its 2Q21 results or provided any financial guidance. However, due to the regulatory restrictions, DiDi is losing market share and pricing power to competitors in China. On 6 September, Cao Cao Mobility, a peer, raised RMB3.8 billion ($588 million) from Chinese state-owned funds to accelerate its expansion. DiDi’s average daily user count declined 30% to 10.9 million in August from 15.6 million in June, according to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aurora-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27264:1" rel="noopener">Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG US)</a>.</p><p>DiDi continues to polarise opinions with some investors suggesting that the stock can double from current levels while others are wary due to unpredictable regulatory risks. Due to the number of unknowns, we examine DiDi's outlook through scenarios analysis. A key difference between the bull and bear case is the timing for the reinstatement of DiDi’s apps on the app stores which will once again enable DiDi to grow market share and regain pricing power. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Our bull-case SoTP valuation points to a 22% upside while our bear-case SoTP valuation points to a -19% downside to the last close price of $8.56 per ADS. Consequently, the shares seem fairly valued and may appeal to investors with a higher risk appetite.  </p></div>

DiDi Global (DIDI US) is the world's largest mobility technology platform by annual active users and by average daily transactions for the twelve months ended 31 March 2021, according to CIC. DiDi has endured a torrid time since its listing on 30 June to raise net proceeds of $4,331.6 million at $14.00 per ADS. The shares are trading 40% below its IPO price as days after its listing, DiDi’s apps were taken down from app stores in China by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC). DiDi ran afoul of CAC when it pressed ahead with its listing, despite CAC asking it to put the listing on hold while it conducted a cybersecurity review of its collection and use of personal information. Subsequently, the official Xinhua news agency on 10 October claimed that the CAC probe was aimed at “effectively preventing potential national security risks relating to procurement, data processing and overseas listings.”DIDi has been ensnared by regulatory probes into its pricing mechanisms and the way it treats its drivers. DiDi also been subject to rumours in the press that the Chinese government is weighing asserting state control by taking a stake in the company. Press reports have also suggested that DiDi is planning to delist from the US which was later confirmed by DiDi to be false.Since the regulatory clampdown, DiDi has not released its 2Q21 results or provided any financial guidance. However, due to the regulatory restrictions, DiDi is losing market share and pricing power to competitors in China. On 6 September, Cao Cao Mobility, a peer, raised RMB3.8 billion ($588 million) from Chinese state-owned funds to accelerate its expansion. DiDi’s average daily user count declined 30% to 10.9 million in August from 15.6 million in June, according to Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG US).DiDi continues to polarise opinions with some investors suggesting that the stock can double from current levels while others are wary due to unpredictable regulatory risks. Due to the number of unknowns, we examine DiDi's outlook through scenarios analysis. A key difference between the bull and bear case is the timing for the reinstatement of DiDi’s apps on the app stores which will once again enable DiDi to grow market share and regain pricing power. Our bull-case SoTP valuation points to a 22% upside while our bear-case SoTP valuation points to a -19% downside to the last close price of $8.56 per ADS. Consequently, the shares seem fairly valued and may appeal to investors with a higher risk appetite.  

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener">Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a> released a strong set of 1H2021 results with overall revenues up by +23% YoY to IDR4,863,1bn, driven by advertising revenue growth of +27% YoY. Free-to-Air Television advertising revenues grew by +16% YoY to IDR4,595.1bn, whilst digital advertising revenues grew by +117% YoY to IDR889.2bn.</p>
</section>
<p>There was also a strong performance from e-commerce players such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lazada-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26148:1" rel="noopener">Lazada Group</a>, Shopee (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia</a>, and BliBli.com, which block-booked primetime slots for entertainment variety shows and promotional events. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener"></a>Content is King</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener">Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a> continues to see strong performance from its prime-time blocking programs, which are predominantly for e-commerce companies but also players such as Telkomsel. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener">Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a> continues to see explosive growth from its digital adverting efforts, which saw revenues rise +117% in 1H2021.</p>
<p>Management is also very excited about the prospects for the company's RCTI+ super app, which had 39.8m MAUs at the end of 1H2021 versus 9.5m a year ago, and already hit 50m MAUs in August, with expectations of 60-70m by year-end.</p>
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<p>Management is optimistic that 2H2021 can see even stronger growth and the lack of European Cup costs should see better margins at the same time. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener">Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a> looks very attractive from a valuation perspective trading on 5.3x FY21E PER and 4.4x FY22E PER versus a 5-year average of 9.3x forward PER.</p>
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Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) released a strong set of 1H2021 results with overall revenues up by +23% YoY to IDR4,863,1bn, driven by advertising revenue growth of +27% YoY. Free-to-Air Television advertising revenues grew by +16% YoY to IDR4,595.1bn, whilst digital advertising revenues grew by +117% YoY to IDR889.2bn.

There was also a strong performance from e-commerce players such as Lazada Group, Shopee (Sea Ltd (SE US), Gojek &amp; Tokopedia, and BliBli.com, which block-booked primetime slots for entertainment variety shows and promotional events. Content is King

Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) continues to see strong performance from its prime-time blocking programs, which are predominantly for e-commerce companies but also players such as Telkomsel. 
Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) continues to see explosive growth from its digital adverting efforts, which saw revenues rise +117% in 1H2021.
Management is also very excited about the prospects for the company's RCTI+ super app, which had 39.8m MAUs at the end of 1H2021 versus 9.5m a year ago, and already hit 50m MAUs in August, with expectations of 60-70m by year-end.




Management is optimistic that 2H2021 can see even stronger growth and the lack of European Cup costs should see better margins at the same time. Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) looks very attractive from a valuation perspective trading on 5.3x FY21E PER and 4.4x FY22E PER versus a 5-year average of 9.3x forward PER.










Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) - Increasingly Digital with Gaming to Boot

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Shares Fall With Nvidia... SK Hynix HBM DRAM with Global Unichip? Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues... Broadcom Developing an AI Chip with Bytedance</li>
<li>TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing </li>
<li>UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ. </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Shares Fall With Nvidia... SK Hynix HBM DRAM with Global Unichip? Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues... Broadcom Developing an AI Chip with Bytedance
TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing 
UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Declines With Nvidia; Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues; UMC's Outlook Improves

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Corruption / Cover Story: China’s sports corruption dragnet casts pall ahead of Paris Olympics</li><li>Euro Cup / Chinese brands intend to triumph at Euro Cup 2024</li><li>Cyberbully / China rolls out new rules for online sites to curb cyberbullying</li></ul>

Corruption / Cover Story: China’s sports corruption dragnet casts pall ahead of Paris OlympicsEuro Cup / Chinese brands intend to triumph at Euro Cup 2024Cyberbully / China rolls out new rules for online sites to curb cyberbullying

CX Daily: China’s Sports Corruption Dragnet Casts Pall Ahead of Paris Olympics 

China

Beijing Douyin Information Service Co. Ltd. provides online information and contents. The Company develops and operates short video platform, original short video community, news platform, and other related products. Beijing Douyin Information Service offers services worldwide.

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ByteDance (1439927D CH)

A New New Oriental?

After the recent doldrums, the education giant New Orient re-entered the spotlight recently with its new found streaming success. But can it last?

Evelyn Zhang

DiDi Global: Time to Book a Ride?

Our bull-case SoTP valuation points to a 22% upside while our bear-case SoTP valuation points to a -19% downside. The shares seem fairly valued and...

Arun George

Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) - Increasingly Digital with Gaming to Boot

MNCN continues to dominate audience share in FTA TV in Indonesia, which is yielding positive advertising returns but it is also growing its digital...

Angus Mackintosh

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Declines With Nvidia; Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues; UMC's Outlook Improves

New Vietnam investments by Hon Hai and Wistron, Elan preparing for significant AI PC uptake in 4Q24/1H25, UMC's outlook increasingly optimistic for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

CX Daily: China’s Sports Corruption Dragnet Casts Pall Ahead of Paris Olympics

Corruption / Cover Story: China’s sports corruption dragnet casts pall ahead of Paris Olympics. An avalanche of corruption investigations continues...

Caixin Global

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