HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It’s unrealistic to turn losses into profits by relying on BRUKINSA alone. BeiGene needs to have three blockbuster products with US$1 billion sales, which is difficult considering current pipeline situation. </li>
<li>If investors are optimistic about BeiGene, to some extent, they are betting on the success of BeiGene's model, but of course, they should also bear the corresponding risks and costs. </li>
<li>BeiGene is overvalued, and its current market value has already priced in all positive factors. In this position, we think the risks far outweigh the benefits, because miracles don't always happen.   </li>
</ul>


It’s unrealistic to turn losses into profits by relying on BRUKINSA alone. BeiGene needs to have three blockbuster products with US$1 billion sales, which is difficult considering current pipeline situation. 
If investors are optimistic about BeiGene, to some extent, they are betting on the success of BeiGene's model, but of course, they should also bear the corresponding risks and costs. 
BeiGene is overvalued, and its current market value has already priced in all positive factors. In this position, we think the risks far outweigh the benefits, because miracles don't always happen.   


BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) - Miracles Don't Always Happen

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

JF Wealth Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jf-wealth-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36805:1" rel="noopener">JF Wealth Holdings (9636 HK)</a> is looking to raise US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>JF Wealth (JFW) is an online investment decision-making solution provider in China, focusing on the online investor content services market. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss our earnings estimates, and thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



JF Wealth Holdings (9636 HK) is looking to raise US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO.
JF Wealth (JFW) is an online investment decision-making solution provider in China, focusing on the online investor content services market. 
In this note, we discuss our earnings estimates, and thoughts on valuation.


JF Wealth Holdings IPO - Can Get Similar Exposure at Cheaper Valuations

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jf-wealth-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36805:1" rel="noopener">JF Wealth Holdings (9636 HK)</a> is looking to raise US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>JF Wealth (JFW) is an online investment decision-making solution provider in China, focusing on the online investor content services market.</li>
<li>With total gross billings of RMB2bn in 2021, it was the second largest online investment decision-making solution provider in China with a 5.9% market share.</li>
</ul>



JF Wealth Holdings (9636 HK) is looking to raise US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO.
JF Wealth (JFW) is an online investment decision-making solution provider in China, focusing on the online investor content services market.
With total gross billings of RMB2bn in 2021, it was the second largest online investment decision-making solution provider in China with a 5.9% market share.


JF Wealth IPO - Has Grown Well over Track Period, but Questions on Sustainability Remain

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There’s no need to imagine that biotech can cover each hospital department/each field comprehensively just like Innovent/BeiGene has done in PD-1 era, which is the dividend of a special era.</li>
<li>When PD-1 sales are gradually approaching the ceiling, the extra or fewer several hundred million yuan of PD-1 sold by Innovent wouldn’t have a fundamental impact on its market value.</li>
<li>IBI362 would be a product at billions level,which means revenue would be doubled. It takes time for Innovent to turn losses into profits,but sales forecast of RMB10 billion is achievable.</li>
</ul>


There’s no need to imagine that biotech can cover each hospital department/each field comprehensively just like Innovent/BeiGene has done in PD-1 era, which is the dividend of a special era.
When PD-1 sales are gradually approaching the ceiling, the extra or fewer several hundred million yuan of PD-1 sold by Innovent wouldn’t have a fundamental impact on its market value.
IBI362 would be a product at billions level,which means revenue would be doubled. It takes time for Innovent to turn losses into profits,but sales forecast of RMB10 billion is achievable.


Innovent Biologics (1801.HK) - Time to Enter the Next Stage After the Dividend of Special Era Ends

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>BeiGene (BGNE) reported C4Q22 top line missing our estimate by 13%. Main reason for the miss is weaker than expected BRUKINSA and Tislelizumab sales in China; </li>
<li>While China growth does appear to be a drag, international sales is robust and has potential. Consensus is also reasonable with gross margin having upside;</li>
<li>We cut TP from US$225 to US$219 and maintain BUY. Reliance on international sales heightens BGNE’s political risk.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene (BGNE) reported C4Q22 top line missing our estimate by 13%. Main reason for the miss is weaker than expected BRUKINSA and Tislelizumab sales in China; 
While China growth does appear to be a drag, international sales is robust and has potential. Consensus is also reasonable with gross margin having upside;
We cut TP from US$225 to US$219 and maintain BUY. Reliance on international sales heightens BGNE’s political risk.


[BeiGene, LTD. (BGNE US) Target Price Change]: Non-China Growth Drives the Biz…Maintain BUY

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (BGNE US)

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) - Miracles Don't Always Happen

It’s unrealistic to be breakeven by relying on BRUKINSA alone considering the high unmanageable expenses. BeiGene needs three US$1 billion...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

JF Wealth Holdings IPO - Can Get Similar Exposure at Cheaper Valuations

JF Wealth Holdings (9636 HK) is looking to raise US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we discuss our earnings estimates, and thoughts on...

Clarence Chu

JF Wealth IPO - Has Grown Well over Track Period, but Questions on Sustainability Remain

JF Wealth Holdings (9636 HK) is looking to raise US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO. JFW focuses on the online investor content services market in China.

Clarence Chu

Innovent Biologics (1801.HK) - Time to Enter the Next Stage After the Dividend of Special Era Ends

Innovent successfully caught the biggest/most precious PD-1 opportunity, but its sales are slowing down. We think sales forecast of RMB10 billion...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[BeiGene, LTD. (BGNE US) Target Price Change]: Non-China Growth Drives the Biz…Maintain BUY

BeiGene (BGNE) reported C4Q22 top line missing our estimate by 13%. Main reason for the miss is weaker than expected BRUKINSA and Tislelizumab...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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