European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsso / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since mid-June, spreads have generally widened across our liquid universe (10 have widened, 8 widened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, Schindler, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Ericsson, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-June, spreads have generally widened across our liquid universe (10 have widened, 8 widened, 1 at same level).
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, Schindler, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Ericsson, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July‘23 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-May, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (13 have tightened, 6 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-May, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (13 have tightened, 6 widened).
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June‘23 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April, spreads have generally widened across our liquid universe (12 have widened, 7 tightened). German spreads are tightening.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April, spreads have generally widened across our liquid universe (12 have widened, 7 tightened). German spreads are tightening.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May‘23 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-March, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (6 have widened, 12 tightened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Possible trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Possible trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Sixt, VW, Danieli, Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-March, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (6 have widened, 12 tightened, 1 at same level).
Possible trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Possible trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Sixt, VW, Danieli, Grifols, Atlas Copco.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘23 Report

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Germany

Mercedes-Benz Group AG operates as an automobile company. The Company designs, manufactures, distributes, and sells a wide range of automotive products such as passenger cars, trucks, vans, and buses. Mercedes-Benz Group also provides financial and other services relating to its automotive businesses.

Porsche Automobil Holding SE is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers development, production, and sale of automobiles along with financial services. Porsche operates worldwide.

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

Daimler AG develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells a wide range of automotive products such as passenger cars, trucks, vans, and buses. The Company also provides financial and other services relating to its automotive businesses.

Continental AG manufactures tires, automotive parts, and industrial products. The Company produces passenger cars, trucks, commercial vehicles, bicycle tires, braking systems, shock absorbers, hoses, drive belts, conveyor belting, transmission products, and sealing systems. Continental markets its products worldwide.

HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA develops and manufactures lighting, electronic components, and systems. The Company offers spare parts, chassis, side lights, and accessories, as well as vehicle diagnostics, battery installation, and lighting services. HELLA serves customers worldwide.

Schaeffler AG is an automotive and industrial supplier. The Company's business divisions include engine, transmission and chassis systems, automotive aftermarket, industrial applications, and industrial aftermarket. Schaeffler AG operates worldwide.

ElringKlinger AG manufactures and distributes original equipment and replacement parts for automobiles.  The Company makes cylinder-head gaskets, seals, modules, and elastomer gasket systems, and shielding systems.  ElringKlinger offers engine testing services.  The Company owns real estate properties such as industrial parks and warehouses.

adidas AG manufactures sports shoes and sports equipment. The Company produces products that include footwear, sports apparel, and golf clubs and balls. adidas sells its products worldwide.

Grammer AG manufactures seats for vehicles.  The Company produces seats for tractors, forklifts, construction machinery, automobiles, buses, and railroad cars.  Grammer manufactures in Europe, South America and Asia, and sells its products through subsidiaries, distributors, and licensed ventures worldwide.

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The Company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products such as generators and farm machinery. The Company also operates a financial credit business. Honda Motor has manufacturing facilities in the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Thailand.

Hyundai Motor Company manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. The Company also sells various auto parts and operates auto repair service centers throughout South Korea. Hyundai Motor provides financial services through its subsidiaries.

Kia Corporation manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, mini-buses, trucks and commercial vehicles. The Company also manufactures auto-parts and tools using hybrid electric and fuel cell technology. Kia markets its products worldwide.

Tata Motors Limited manufactures cars and commercial automotive vehicles in India. The Company designs, manufactures and sells heavy commercial, medium commercial and small commercial vehicles including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances and minibuses. Tata also manufactures small cars and sports utility vehicles.

Suzuki Motor Corporation manufactures automobiles, motorcycles, and their related parts. The Company has production facilities in USA, Japan, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Hungary.

Maruti Suzuki India Limited manufactures and exports automobiles. Maruti collaborated with Suzuki of Japan to produce affordable cars for the average Indian.

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) manufactures and sells cars and motorcycles. The Company offers convertible sports cars, sedans, and touring motorcycles with large displacement engines. BMW serves customers worldwide.

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Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW) (BMW GR)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July‘23 Report

Since mid-June 2023, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe (10 have widened, 8 widened, 1 at same level).

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June‘23 Report

Since mid-May, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (13 have tightened, 6 widened). Some spreads are relatively large, such...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May‘23 Report

Since mid-April, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred (12 spreads have widened, whilst 7...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘23 Report

Since mid-March, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (6 have widened, 12 tightened, 1 at same level).

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

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