Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

* Despite bottom-line improvement on a go-forward basis, deferred tax asset (DTA) write-downs are likely at major global financial companies  - beckoning for major 2018 EPS revisions.* Domestic institutions such as, Bank of America (BAC.US), Goldman Sachs (GS.US), and Morgan Stanley (MS.US) stand out with large DTAs in the US.  * Of the international companies with US subsidiaries, the Swiss financials would post shocking results, while HSBC Holdings could have a 25% EPS adjustment, by our…

* Despite bottom-line improvement on a go-forward basis, deferred tax asset (DTA) write-downs are likely at major global financial companies  - beckoning for major 2018 EPS revisions.* Domestic institutions such as, Bank of America (BAC.US), Goldman Sachs (GS.US), and Morgan Stanley (MS.US) stand out with large DTAs in the US.  * Of the international companies with US subsidiaries, the Swiss financials would post shocking results, while HSBC Holdings could have a 25% EPS adjustment, by our…

HSBC Holdings Plc – Likely Getting a Big Hickey From President Trump

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: <ul><li>Overweight Japan. </li><li>Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. </li><li>Actionable Sector/Group themes:<ol><li>Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. </li><li>Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. </li><li>Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.</li></ol></li></ul>

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: Overweight Japan. Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. Actionable Sector/Group themes:Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>All banks passed the BoE’s annual stress tests for the first time. No new capital is required, but some capital will become incorporated into regulatory requirements.</li>
<li>With the UK banking system facing cyclical risks back at normal levels, the FPC announced another 50bp CCyB hike to 1.0%, which it sees as cyclically normal for the instrument. However, it will reconsider its adequacy in 2018 H1.</li>
<li>
Normalisation of the countercyclical macroprudential policy instrument matches the maturing of the cycle,…</li>
</ul>


All banks passed the BoE’s annual stress tests for the first time. No new capital is required, but some capital will become incorporated into regulatory requirements.
With the UK banking system facing cyclical risks back at normal levels, the FPC announced another 50bp CCyB hike to 1.0%, which it sees as cyclically normal for the instrument. However, it will reconsider its adequacy in 2018 H1.

Normalisation of the countercyclical macroprudential policy instrument matches the maturing of the cycle,…


BoE: FPC Hikes to Normal Well Ahead of MPC

<ul><li>The BoE has delivered its first rate hike in a decade. Future moves will respond to its trade-off, with slack and inflation determining timing. I expect May-18 next.</li><li>Rate changes may be absorbed in spreads, which would pressure the MPC to hike faster and further than my already hawkish forecast (every six months back to 2%).</li><li>With a positive output gap potentially building, rates need to return to neutral, but markets place excessive focus on growth over gaps and do not price this.</li></ul>

The BoE has delivered its first rate hike in a decade. Future moves will respond to its trade-off, with slack and inflation determining timing. I expect May-18 next.Rate changes may be absorbed in spreads, which would pressure the MPC to hike faster and further than my already hawkish forecast (every six months back to 2%).With a positive output gap potentially building, rates need to return to neutral, but markets place excessive focus on growth over gaps and do not price this.

BoE: Transmitting Periodic Hawkish Surprises

United Kingdom

Barclays PLC is a global financial services provider engaged in retail banking, credit cards, wholesale banking, investment banking, wealth management and investment management services.

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Barclays PLC (BARC LN)

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and...

Vermilion Research

HSBC Holdings Plc – Likely Getting a Big Hickey From President Trump

* Despite bottom-line improvement on a go-forward basis, deferred tax asset (DTA) write-downs are likely at major global financial companies -...

Thomas J. Monaco

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync. We see the bullish...

Vermilion Research

BoE: FPC Hikes to Normal Well Ahead of MPC

All banks passed the BoE’s annual stress tests for the first time. No new capital is required, but some capital will become incorporated into...

Phil Rush

BoE: Transmitting Periodic Hawkish Surprises

The BoE has delivered its first rate hike in a decade. Future moves will respond to its trade-off, with slack and inflation determining timing. I...

Phil Rush

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