Asia Ex-J Consumer/ Transport analyst

Valerie Law, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With a small market cap barely touching SGD 100m, YVEN is easy to be passed up by fund managers. However, its data-centric approach to e-commerce, its strategtic partnerships, plus upcoming ICO for its subsidiary can make for interesting catalysts. Details are discussed in a three-part series.</li>
<li>In Part 2 of this three part series, we discuss the company's growth through partnerships and M&amp;A, financials, catalysts, and risks. </li>
</ul>


With a small market cap barely touching SGD 100m, YVEN is easy to be passed up by fund managers. However, its data-centric approach to e-commerce, its strategtic partnerships, plus upcoming ICO for its subsidiary can make for interesting catalysts. Details are discussed in a three-part series.
In Part 2 of this three part series, we discuss the company's growth through partnerships and M&amp;A, financials, catalysts, and risks. 


Y Ventures: A Potential to Double (Part 2)

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this note, we analyze the latest domestic consumption data including the top 50 retailers, auto sales, and P2P transactions.  Domestic consumption has decelerated meaningfully since Q2.  Rising household debt and the crackdown in shadow banking activities are hurting consumer sentiment in ways that should not be ignored by investors.

In this note, we analyze the latest domestic consumption data including the top 50 retailers, auto sales, and P2P transactions.  Domestic consumption has decelerated meaningfully since Q2.  Rising household debt and the crackdown in shadow banking activities are hurting consumer sentiment in ways that should not be ignored by investors.    

China's Consumer Credit Crunch, Slowing Consumption, & Stock Implications

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24184" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24184:1">Baozun Inc. (BZUN US)</a> was our top long idea for the past 8 months with a price target of $45.  At its current $55 per share, the stock price in optimism in the company’s transition from an E-commerce service provider (SP) to Software as a Service (SaaS) business model.  Once it fully transitions to a SaaS business, investors will see an upside in profit margins driven by the scalability of the product, compared to its current client by client, customized projects.  However, according to our checks, the optimism is largely unwarranted. Our new price target is $29, representing 47% downside to current stock price.

Baozun Inc. (BZUN US) was our top long idea for the past 8 months with a price target of $45.  At its current $55 per share, the stock price in optimism in the company’s transition from an E-commerce service provider (SP) to Software as a Service (SaaS) business model.  Once it fully transitions to a SaaS business, investors will see an upside in profit margins driven by the scalability of the product, compared to its current client by client, customized projects.  However, according to our checks, the optimism is largely unwarranted. Our new price target is $29, representing 47% downside to current stock price. 

Turning Negative on Baozun: Software Upgrade Delayed; E-Commerce Premiumization Slows

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM exposure and be selective.  India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is our top country-specific EM index recommendation, overweight India. We also provide an update on Brazil’s Bovespa, which has surged over the last month following a steep selloff. We are skeptical that the index will be able to continue its unabated advance.  Today’s report also includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM exposure and be selective.  India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is our top country-specific EM index recommendation, overweight India. We also provide an update on Brazil’s Bovespa, which has surged over the last month following a steep selloff. We are skeptical that the index will be able to continue its unabated advance.  Today’s report also includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Approaching Resistance; India Breaking Out to New Highs -- Add Exposure

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25485" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25485:1">Canada Goose Holdings Inc (GOOS US)</a> announced today plans to open direct-to-consumer (DTC) flagship stores in Beijing and HK.  Both stores will open in the fall 2018. To compliment the offline DTCs and existing counters at Lafayette, Lane Crawford, and Season’s Place in mainland China, GOOS also announced the opening of an online flagship on Tmall in fall 2018.  We believe that the opening of on and offline DTC stores will significantly boost GOOS’ branding and sales volume in China. Goose sales…

Canada Goose Holdings Inc (GOOS US) announced today plans to open direct-to-consumer (DTC) flagship stores in Beijing and HK.  Both stores will open in the fall 2018. To compliment the offline DTCs and existing counters at Lafayette, Lane Crawford, and Season’s Place in mainland China, GOOS also announced the opening of an online flagship on Tmall in fall 2018.  We believe that the opening of on and offline DTC stores will significantly boost GOOS’ branding and sales volume in China. Goose sales…

Canada Goose China Momentum to Accelerate; Nice Contract Win for Baozun

United States

Baozun Inc. provides e-commerce solutions. The Company's services include website design, development and hosting, information technology infrastructure, customer service, warehousing, and logistics services, as well as digital marketing. Baozun serves customers in China.

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Baozun Inc. (BZUN US)

Y Ventures: A Potential to Double (Part 2)

With a small market cap barely touching SGD 100m, YVEN is easy to be passed up by fund managers. However, its data-centric approach to e-commerce,...

Valerie Law, CFA

China's Consumer Credit Crunch, Slowing Consumption, & Stock Implications

In this note, we analyze the latest domestic consumption data including the top 50 retailers, auto sales, and P2P transactions. Domestic...

JL Warren Capital

Turning Negative on Baozun: Software Upgrade Delayed; E-Commerce Premiumization Slows

Baozun Inc. (BZUN US) was our top long idea for the past 8 months with a price target of $45. At its current $55 per share, the stock price in...

JL Warren Capital

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Approaching Resistance; India Breaking Out to New Highs -- Add Exposure

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM...

Vermilion Research

Canada Goose China Momentum to Accelerate; Nice Contract Win for Baozun

Canada Goose Holdings Inc (GOOS US) announced today plans to open direct-to-consumer (DTC) flagship stores in Beijing and HK. Both stores will...

JL Warren Capital

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