Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

While credit quality is certainly the most important issue facing China’s banks, we can not dismiss core income. This is what will pay for credit costs. But China’s banks are quietly facing a vanishing of their asset yields and therefore, net interest margins (NIM). Where interest rates are not coming down in the quarter, we suspect that much of the worsening in asset yields and NIM is due to loans not paying market rates.These may more affectionately be called NPLs, restructured loans or…

While credit quality is certainly the most important issue facing China’s banks, we can not dismiss core income. This is what will pay for credit costs. But China’s banks are quietly facing a vanishing of their asset yields and therefore, net interest margins (NIM). Where interest rates are not coming down in the quarter, we suspect that much of the worsening in asset yields and NIM is due to loans not paying market rates.These may more affectionately be called NPLs, restructured loans or…

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

Yesterday was money and credit data release data in China.  Most of the numbers grew robustly, as is always expected with this specific release, but there were two numbers that we wanted to highlight because of what they mean for other issues.First, new RMB loans in China were up 9% YoY and 16% YTD YoY.  This represents the ongoing rapid expansion of credit in China that at best seems unsustainable at worst reckless.  Despite talk of restricting credit expansion, credit is growing more than…

Yesterday was money and credit data release data in China.  Most of the numbers grew robustly, as is always expected with this specific release, but there were two numbers that we wanted to highlight because of what they mean for other issues.First, new RMB loans in China were up 9% YoY and 16% YTD YoY.  This represents the ongoing rapid expansion of credit in China that at best seems unsustainable at worst reckless.  Despite talk of restricting credit expansion, credit is growing more than…

The Importance of the Obscure: Banker's Acceptance and Capital Flows Out of China

It was announced early Asia morning that the MSCI would not be including China in the Emerging Market Index.  While China had clearly hoped for inclusion at the annual, there were signs pointing to this as the outcome.  There are a number of important market factors to include going forward.First, it was MSCI exclusion that triggered the July 2015 collapse in A-share prices.  Though no Chinese indexes are nearly as frothy as in June 2015, there will be significant additional downward pressure on…

It was announced early Asia morning that the MSCI would not be including China in the Emerging Market Index.  While China had clearly hoped for inclusion at the annual, there were signs pointing to this as the outcome.  There are a number of important market factors to include going forward.First, it was MSCI exclusion that triggered the July 2015 collapse in A-share prices.  Though no Chinese indexes are nearly as frothy as in June 2015, there will be significant additional downward pressure on…

What MSCI Rejection Means for Chinese Indexes and the RMB

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

There is a problem with official statistics in China. Put simply, they cannot be relied upon. From coal consumption, steel or iron ore production, the quality of groundwater, or even the figures for GDP, the official statistics rarely tell the full story. Officials have been found faking the figures and often selling inside information to the highest bidder. Although general trends can sometimes be right, good policies depend on accurate information.

There is a problem with official statistics in China. Put simply, they cannot be relied upon. From coal consumption, steel or iron ore production, the quality of groundwater, or even the figures for GDP, the official statistics rarely tell the full story. Officials have been found faking the figures and often selling inside information to the highest bidder. Although general trends can sometimes be right, good policies depend on accurate information.

Two interesting developments have affected China’s international financial standing in recent months. The first is that the yuan – China’s currency – has over the last year become <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-01/yuan-s-shrinking-share-erodes-pboc-s-efforts-to-push-global-use" target="_blank">far less used in international payments</a>. A few years ago it represented about 0.5% of all settlements. By last year this had risen to 2.79%, which made it the fourth most active currency in global payments.This coincided with moves to make it a component of the SDR currency basket, and by implication a potential…

Two interesting developments have affected China’s international financial standing in recent months. The first is that the yuan – China’s currency – has over the last year become far less used in international payments. A few years ago it represented about 0.5% of all settlements. By last year this had risen to 2.79%, which made it the fourth most active currency in global payments.This coincided with moves to make it a component of the SDR currency basket, and by implication a potential…

China

Bank of Ningbo Company Ltd is a full service commercial bank. The Bank provides personal and small business loans, trade financing, and retail banking services as well as personal savings and checking accounts. Bank of Ningbo is located in China.

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Bank Of Ningbo Co Ltd A (002142 CH)

The Quiet Collapse in China Bank Margins

While credit quality is certainly the most important issue facing China’s banks, we can not dismiss core income. This is what will pay for credit...

Daniel Tabbush

The Importance of the Obscure: Banker's Acceptance and Capital Flows Out of China

Yesterday was money and credit data release data in China. Most of the numbers grew robustly, as is always expected with this specific release,...

Christopher Balding

What MSCI Rejection Means for Chinese Indexes and the RMB

It was announced early Asia morning that the MSCI would not be including China in the Emerging Market Index. While China had clearly hoped for...

Christopher Balding

Getting the Detail Right in China

There is a problem with official statistics in China. Put simply, they cannot be relied upon. From coal consumption, steel or iron ore production,...

Bixmoor

China's International Financial Position

Two interesting developments have affected China’s international financial standing in recent months. The first is that the yuan – China’s currency...

Bixmoor

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