Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia, Forsyth Barr Asia

David Millhouse

Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia

Forsyth Barr Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China markets sold off last week, post news <span style='font: small/normal Arial, "BB.Proportional"; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; word-spacing: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important; white-space: pre-wrap; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;'>China’s securities regulator plans to start a new round of checks on the margin-lending businesses of brokerages. <span style='font: small/normal Arial, "BB.Proportional"; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; word-spacing: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important; white-space: pre-wrap; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;'>Despite the crackdown on 3 brokers earlier in the year, the outstanding balance of margin debt on the Shanghai Stock Exchange has climbed to a new record. <span style='font: small/normal Arial, "BB.Proportional"; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; word-spacing: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important; white-space: pre-wrap; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;'>We are concerned that further crackdowns on margin trading on the A-share will be required near term, in particular on umbrella trusts.

China markets sold off last week, post news China’s securities regulator plans to start a new round of checks on the margin-lending businesses of brokerages. Despite the crackdown on 3 brokers earlier in the year, the outstanding balance of margin debt on the Shanghai Stock Exchange has climbed to a new record. We are concerned that further crackdowns on margin trading on the A-share will be required near term, in particular on umbrella trusts.  

CHINA MARKET: Growing risks of regulatory intervention on leverage 

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Poor 2Q21 Result: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 2Q21 results of SGD 1.7 bn, decreasing SGD 304  mn (15.1%) on a linked quarter basis. The weaker results were driven primarily by an overall revenue decline, a loan provision increase, and a higher tax rate;*Watch Your Credit: We struggle continue to believe that DBS’ due diligence had actually caught all of LVB’s risk (see discussion below), and remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs. DBS has disclosed absolutely nothing about Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank’s (SRCB) fundamentals. By our calculation, and given the NCOs of SGD 69 mn, we find that net new NPLs have re-accelerated – up SGD 266 mn or increasing 18.0% annualized versus SGD 85 mn or 5.6% in 1Q21. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.5bn – amounting now to about two quarters of operating results; and *Deal Distractions Mount:  While SRCB dos not appear to be riddled with problems the way LVB is, no doubt there will be issues to contend with.  DBS apparently isn’t done with its shopping spree, being in the running for parts of Citigroup's (C.US) consumer business in Asia. Frankly, DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before it starts both taking on those of other financial institutions.

*Poor 2Q21 Result: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 2Q21 results of SGD 1.7 bn, decreasing SGD 304  mn (15.1%) on a linked quarter basis. The weaker results were driven primarily by an overall revenue decline, a loan provision increase, and a higher tax rate;*Watch Your Credit: We struggle continue to believe that DBS’ due diligence had actually caught all of LVB’s risk (see discussion below), and remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs. DBS has disclosed absolutely nothing about Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank’s (SRCB) fundamentals. By our calculation, and given the NCOs of SGD 69 mn, we find that net new NPLs have re-accelerated – up SGD 266 mn or increasing 18.0% annualized versus SGD 85 mn or 5.6% in 1Q21. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.5bn – amounting now to about two quarters of operating results; and *Deal Distractions Mount:  While SRCB dos not appear to be riddled with problems the way LVB is, no doubt there will be issues to contend with.  DBS apparently isn’t done with its shopping spree, being in the running for parts of Citigroup's (C.US) consumer business in Asia. Frankly, DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before it starts both taking on those of other financial institutions.

Hong Kong

The Bank of East Asia, Limited and its subsidiaries provide general banking, related financial, business corporate, and investor services.

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Bank of East Asia (23 HK)

CHINA MARKET: Growing risks of regulatory intervention on leverage

China markets sold off last week, post news China’s securities regulator plans to start a new round of checks on the margin-lending businesses of...

David Millhouse

DBS Group Holdings – Bad Print

DBS: DBS QOQ 2Q21 results declined 15.1% due to poor revenues and higher provisions. We worry that DBS has not caught the LVB risk, net new NPLs re...

Thomas J. Monaco

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