Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

At the time of writing the US Dollar is flirting with several support/resistance levels on charts. The Euro is oscillating around 1.05 to the dollar and has the potential to break its 2 year consolidation and move towards parity very fast. In March 2015 it traded at 1.0460 and a break of that level might send the dollar flying higher. My sense though is that the next big move up in the dollar will have more to do with bad news elsewhere, than positive news on the US. Having said that today we…

At the time of writing the US Dollar is flirting with several support/resistance levels on charts. The Euro is oscillating around 1.05 to the dollar and has the potential to break its 2 year consolidation and move towards parity very fast. In March 2015 it traded at 1.0460 and a break of that level might send the dollar flying higher. My sense though is that the next big move up in the dollar will have more to do with bad news elsewhere, than positive news on the US. Having said that today we…

Money Matters: Is the RMB About to Shoot?

The Turkish Lira has plummeted 14.5% against the dollar and 11% against the Euro since the start of October. While the Lira has never been a great store of value, even by its own standards this fall is alarming in its speed.  Turkey has USD420bn of external debt of which about USD100bn is short term (2015 Nominal GDP was UD718bn). The country continues to run a a current account deficit despite politically unacceptably low growth and a low oil price (it is an oil importer). Unemployment has been…

The Turkish Lira has plummeted 14.5% against the dollar and 11% against the Euro since the start of October. While the Lira has never been a great store of value, even by its own standards this fall is alarming in its speed.  Turkey has USD420bn of external debt of which about USD100bn is short term (2015 Nominal GDP was UD718bn). The country continues to run a a current account deficit despite politically unacceptably low growth and a low oil price (it is an oil importer). Unemployment has been…

Money Matters: Is the Lira Signalling Default Is on the Way?

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued a joint announcement on 25 November 2016 approving the launch of the long-awaited Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and trading commenced this week on 5 December 2016. This supplements the prior joint official announcement made by the SFC and the CSRC in August 2016.

The Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued a joint announcement on 25 November 2016 approving the launch of the long-awaited Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and trading commenced this week on 5 December 2016. This supplements the prior joint official announcement made by the SFC and the CSRC in August 2016.

The Shenzhen–Hong Kong Stock Connect. A Legal Update from Dechert's Financial Services Group

Having broken convincingly through 100, the DXY (trade weighted dollar index) has pulled back in the past few days to test its break. The Italian referendum, as expected, produced a bad outcome for believers in the single European currency but as it turns out it was so widely expected that it triggered short covering in the Euro. I would highlight a few data points in the next few days that may add to dollar strength, cement the break-out in the DXY and lead to an acceleration in the up-trend in…

Having broken convincingly through 100, the DXY (trade weighted dollar index) has pulled back in the past few days to test its break. The Italian referendum, as expected, produced a bad outcome for believers in the single European currency but as it turns out it was so widely expected that it triggered short covering in the Euro. I would highlight a few data points in the next few days that may add to dollar strength, cement the break-out in the DXY and lead to an acceleration in the up-trend in…

Money Matters: Short-Term Dollar Catalysts.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

We often focus too much on the listed 30 or so China banks, their NPL ratios and credit metrics.  If anybody remembers First Bangkok City Bank, Siam City Credit and Finance, Union Bank of Bangkok, all from Thailand, you will know the reason that this strategy can mislead. Fringe banks often reveal the stresses well before mainstream banks, in any country.NPL growth of China’s banks at over 100% in 2015 (%)<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Bank</td>
<td>%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chang'an Bank Co., Ltd.</td>
<td>263</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bank of Cangzhou Co., Ltd.</td>
<td>224</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bank of Guangzhou Co., Ltd.</td>
<td>194</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>…</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

We often focus too much on the listed 30 or so China banks, their NPL ratios and credit metrics.  If anybody remembers First Bangkok City Bank, Siam City Credit and Finance, Union Bank of Bangkok, all from Thailand, you will know the reason that this strategy can mislead. Fringe banks often reveal the stresses well before mainstream banks, in any country.NPL growth of China’s banks at over 100% in 2015 (%)

Bank
%


Chang'an Bank Co., Ltd.
263


Bank of Cangzhou Co., Ltd.
224


Bank of Guangzhou Co., Ltd.
194


…



Fourth Tier Banks in China and HK Show Heightened Credit Risk, a Harbinger for Mainstream Banks

Hong Kong

The Bank of East Asia, Limited and its subsidiaries provide general banking, related financial, business corporate, and investor services.

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Bank of East Asia (23 HK)

Money Matters: Is the RMB About to Shoot?

At the time of writing the US Dollar is flirting with several support/resistance levels on charts. The Euro is oscillating around 1.05 to the...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: Is the Lira Signalling Default Is on the Way?

The Turkish Lira has plummeted 14.5% against the dollar and 11% against the Euro since the start of October. While the Lira has never been a great...

Stewart Paterson

The Shenzhen–Hong Kong Stock Connect. A Legal Update from Dechert's Financial Services Group

The Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued a joint announcement on 25...

Dechert LLP

Money Matters: Short-Term Dollar Catalysts.

Having broken convincingly through 100, the DXY (trade weighted dollar index) has pulled back in the past few days to test its break. The Italian...

Stewart Paterson

Fourth Tier Banks in China and HK Show Heightened Credit Risk, a Harbinger for Mainstream Banks

We often focus too much on the listed 30 or so China banks, their NPL ratios and credit metrics. If anybody remembers First Bangkok City Bank,...

Daniel Tabbush

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Market Cap (USDm)

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