China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

A strange thing has happened to the value of CNY/CNH options and NDF pricing.  Despite the increased concern over the RMB, the spread between the spot price and 3M and 1YR options prices have narrowed significantly over the past year.  This implies, if taken at face value, that traders are narrowing their volatility expectations for the RMB.As a simple point of comparison, on June 8, 2015, the market had an implied 3MO and 1 year forward rate of 6.23 and 6.34 based on a spot rate of 6.2056 RMB…

A strange thing has happened to the value of CNY/CNH options and NDF pricing.  Despite the increased concern over the RMB, the spread between the spot price and 3M and 1YR options prices have narrowed significantly over the past year.  This implies, if taken at face value, that traders are narrowing their volatility expectations for the RMB.As a simple point of comparison, on June 8, 2015, the market had an implied 3MO and 1 year forward rate of 6.23 and 6.34 based on a spot rate of 6.2056 RMB…

A Strange Thing Happened on the Way to the CNY/CNH Option

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the recent cycle, Shenzhen has been outperforming all other cities in China on house price growth at +59% year-on-year in May according to SouFun-CREIS Index, with strong new home sales volumes at +39% year-on-year on 12-month rolling basis for April. The city enjoys strong corporate fundamentals with many leading firms in technology and telecom sectors based there, and historically limited supply of land and new homes relative to population growth.Yet latest weekly China new home sales GFA…

In the recent cycle, Shenzhen has been outperforming all other cities in China on house price growth at +59% year-on-year in May according to SouFun-CREIS Index, with strong new home sales volumes at +39% year-on-year on 12-month rolling basis for April. The city enjoys strong corporate fundamentals with many leading firms in technology and telecom sectors based there, and historically limited supply of land and new homes relative to population growth.Yet latest weekly China new home sales GFA…

China Property - Likely Turning Point for Shenzhen?

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One of the main indicators to watch is the new starts Gross Floor Area (new starts GFA). This is a short discussion note on what we expect to happen to 'commercial residential' new starts GFA in China for 2016-2020, based on the analysis of historical data on new home sales, prices, completions, new starts and land sales. Latest data indicates a new…

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One of the main indicators to watch is the new starts Gross Floor Area (new starts GFA). This is a short discussion note on what we expect to happen to 'commercial residential' new starts GFA in China for 2016-2020, based on the analysis of historical data on new home sales, prices, completions, new starts and land sales. Latest data indicates a new…

Projecting Residential New Starts in China

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

We all intuitively understand the concept of economic growth and keeping current with debt. But where so many commentators continue to proclaim China’s growth as being relatively strong, we feel compelled to disagree. It is not relatively strong compared with debt. The mirror image of the boon in credit for banks in China over the past several years is a high level of liabilities at the corporate level. If these same companies are not seeing higher growth, there is no way to keep pace with…

We all intuitively understand the concept of economic growth and keeping current with debt. But where so many commentators continue to proclaim China’s growth as being relatively strong, we feel compelled to disagree. It is not relatively strong compared with debt. The mirror image of the boon in credit for banks in China over the past several years is a high level of liabilities at the corporate level. If these same companies are not seeing higher growth, there is no way to keep pace with…

China - Growth Must Be Fantastic to Support Loan Payments

Anticipating a rate hike, the PBOC had been steering the RMB weaker in recent weeks.  The CNH has consistently been trading weaker than the CNY forcing the PBOC to engage in regular interventions to keep them close enough to parity. US non-farm payrolls numbers came in on Friday at a surprisingly low 38,000 gain and revised down the previous two months by almost 60,000. This caused the CNY and CNH to jump more than 300 pips with the CNH trading at a small premium near the end.  Though the market…

Anticipating a rate hike, the PBOC had been steering the RMB weaker in recent weeks.  The CNH has consistently been trading weaker than the CNY forcing the PBOC to engage in regular interventions to keep them close enough to parity. US non-farm payrolls numbers came in on Friday at a surprisingly low 38,000 gain and revised down the previous two months by almost 60,000. This caused the CNY and CNH to jump more than 300 pips with the CNH trading at a small premium near the end.  Though the market…

What Is the Path for the RMB Going Forward?

China

Bank of Communications Co. Ltd. provides a full range of commercial banking services including RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, discount, currency trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related services.

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Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)

A Strange Thing Happened on the Way to the CNY/CNH Option

A strange thing has happened to the value of CNY/CNH options and NDF pricing. Despite the increased concern over the RMB, the spread between the...

Christopher Balding

China Property - Likely Turning Point for Shenzhen?

In the recent cycle, Shenzhen has been outperforming all other cities in China on house price growth at +59% year-on-year in May according to...

Robert Ciemniak

Projecting Residential New Starts in China

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One...

Robert Ciemniak

China - Growth Must Be Fantastic to Support Loan Payments

We all intuitively understand the concept of economic growth and keeping current with debt. But where so many commentators continue to proclaim...

Daniel Tabbush

What Is the Path for the RMB Going Forward?

Anticipating a rate hike, the PBOC had been steering the RMB weaker in recent weeks. The CNH has consistently been trading weaker than the CNY...

Christopher Balding

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