Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain that Bank of Baroda is the stand-out value in this peer group of Indian banks, for its modest valuations, healthy ROE and improving pre- and post-provision returns</li>
<li>We retain HDFC Bank as our higher quality bank pick, with its strong balance sheet, especially on NPA coverage, and potential for improved return from the HDFC merger</li>
<li>Axis bank remains a name to watch, although valuations are not compelling; we remain negative on State Bank of India, and we are also cautious on ICICI Bank</li>
</ul>


We maintain that Bank of Baroda is the stand-out value in this peer group of Indian banks, for its modest valuations, healthy ROE and improving pre- and post-provision returns
We retain HDFC Bank as our higher quality bank pick, with its strong balance sheet, especially on NPA coverage, and potential for improved return from the HDFC merger
Axis bank remains a name to watch, although valuations are not compelling; we remain negative on State Bank of India, and we are also cautious on ICICI Bank


Indian Banks Screener: Bank of Baroda (BOB IN) Remains Stand Out Value

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Power Grid Corporation Of India / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a> and a bunch of other indices will be implemented at the close of trading today.</li>
<li>Depending on the index, there are constituent changes, changes to the number of shares and free float, plus capping changes. Put together, there is a lot of flow and impact.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade will be in excess of US$1bn. Add in the futures &amp; options expiry and volumes will be extremely high in the last 30 minutes of trading.</li>
</ul>


The rebalance of the NIFTY, Nifty Next 50, NSE Nifty Bank, CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and a bunch of other indices will be implemented at the close of trading today.
Depending on the index, there are constituent changes, changes to the number of shares and free float, plus capping changes. Put together, there is a lot of flow and impact.
The round-trip trade will be in excess of US$1bn. Add in the futures &amp; options expiry and volumes will be extremely high in the last 30 minutes of trading.


NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Union Bank Of India / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/union-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:546:1" rel="noopener">Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN)</a> is looking to raise US$301m from its qualified institutional placement (QIP). Included in the deal is an option to effectively double its base deal. </li>
<li>The deal is a relatively large one to digest with the base deal alone representing 21.1 days of three months ADV. </li>
<li>That being said, the deal here is a very well flagged one with the firm having earlier reported to look to do so to boost its free float.</li>
</ul>



Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN) is looking to raise US$301m from its qualified institutional placement (QIP). Included in the deal is an option to effectively double its base deal. 
The deal is a relatively large one to digest with the base deal alone representing 21.1 days of three months ADV. 
That being said, the deal here is a very well flagged one with the firm having earlier reported to look to do so to boost its free float.


Union Bank of India QIP - Well-Flagged Deal, Recent Momentum Has Been Strong

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/federal-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11784:1" rel="noopener">Federal Bank (FB IN)</a> aims to raise around US$370m via a QIP to increase its Tier-1 capital.</li>
<li>The deal is well flagged as the company had earlier obtained board approval for a fundraising and had guided towards a funding raising in FY24.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Federal Bank (FB IN) aims to raise around US$370m via a QIP to increase its Tier-1 capital.
The deal is well flagged as the company had earlier obtained board approval for a fundraising and had guided towards a funding raising in FY24.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Federal Bank QIP - Well Flagged Deal but the Last One Didn’t Do Well

India

Bank of Baroda owns and operates commercial banks in India.  The Group's banks provide the traditional forms of banking services, including CD's, Credit Card services and a variety of car loans, in addition to gold banking and a range of insurance services.  The Group also owns IBU International Finance Limited, an international banking company in Hong Kong.

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Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN)

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Indian Banks Screener: Bank of Baroda (BOB IN) Remains Stand Out Value

Bank of Baroda is the top value pick from our Indian banks screens, while HDFC Bank is the high quality name. Axis Bank is worth watching, but we...

Victor Galliano

NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry

The rebalance of the NIFTY family of indices will be implemented at the close today. The round-trip trade is around US$1bn and volumes at the close...

Brian Freitas

Union Bank of India QIP - Well-Flagged Deal, Recent Momentum Has Been Strong

Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN) is looking to raise US$301m from its qualified institutional placement (QIP). Included in the deal is an option to...

Clarence Chu

Federal Bank QIP - Well Flagged Deal but the Last One Didn’t Do Well

Federal Bank (FB IN) aims to raise around US$370m via a QIP to increase its Tier-1 capital. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run...

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Indian Banks Screener: Bank of Baroda (BOB IN) Remains Stand Out Value

​Bank of Baroda is the top value pick from our Indian banks screens, while HDFC Bank is the high quality name. Axis Bank is worth watching, but we...

Victor Galliano

NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry

The rebalance of the NIFTY family of indices will be implemented at the close today. The round-trip trade is around US$1bn and volumes at the close...

Brian Freitas

Union Bank of India QIP - Well-Flagged Deal, Recent Momentum Has Been Strong

Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN) is looking to raise US$301m from its qualified institutional placement (QIP). Included in the deal is an option to...

Clarence Chu

Federal Bank QIP - Well Flagged Deal but the Last One Didn’t Do Well

Federal Bank (FB IN) aims to raise around US$370m via a QIP to increase its Tier-1 capital. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run...

Sumeet Singh

Bank of Baroda is the top value pick from our Indian banks screens, while HDFC Bank is the high quality name. Axis Bank is worth watching, but we...