Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int'l Compass</li>
<li>We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int'l Compass
We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.


Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX</li>
<li>Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.</li>
<li>Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX
Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.
Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil


Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 2 new listings added to LargeCap and 7 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new listings added to MidCap, and 12 stocks moving from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Stock migrating upward have, on average, outperformed stocks that are downward migrations. Stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap have performed the best.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 2 new listings added to LargeCap and 7 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap.
We see 7 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new listings added to MidCap, and 12 stocks moving from MidCap to SmallCap.
Stock migrating upward have, on average, outperformed stocks that are downward migrations. Stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap have performed the best.


India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview

<ul>
<li>Two-Thirds of the way through the review period, we see 7 stocks migrating from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks from LargeCap to MidCap, and 1 new listing added to LargeCap.</li>
<li>Post listing, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india-lic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (1248Z IN)</a> should be added to the LargeCap segment while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delhivery-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33471:1" rel="noopener">Delhivery (1058656D IN)</a> should be added to the MidCap segment.</li>
<li>On average, stocks expected to migrate from Mid Cap to Large Cap have outperformed. Stocks expected to migrate from the Large Cap to Mid Cap segment have performed the worst.</li>
</ul>


Two-Thirds of the way through the review period, we see 7 stocks migrating from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks from LargeCap to MidCap, and 1 new listing added to LargeCap.
Post listing, Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (1248Z IN) should be added to the LargeCap segment while Delhivery (1058656D IN) should be added to the MidCap segment.
On average, stocks expected to migrate from Mid Cap to Large Cap have outperformed. Stocks expected to migrate from the Large Cap to Mid Cap segment have performed the worst.


India: Preview of Stock Reclassification for Active Funds

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Life Insurance  of India / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Government of India (GoI) is looking to raise around US$2.7bn via selling a 3.5% stake in Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>This is less than half of its initial plans in terms of fundraising target and comes at less than half of its initial valuation target.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the final deal terms and structure, RHP updates and do a quick valuation refresh.</li>
</ul>


Government of India (GoI) is looking to raise around US$2.7bn via selling a 3.5% stake in Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) in its upcoming India IPO.
This is less than half of its initial plans in terms of fundraising target and comes at less than half of its initial valuation target.
In this note, we will talk about the final deal terms and structure, RHP updates and do a quick valuation refresh.


Life Insurance Corporation of India IPO - Valuation Is Ok but Its Not the Best Deal Structure

India

Bank of Baroda owns and operates commercial banks in India.  The Group's banks provide the traditional forms of banking services, including CD's, Credit Card services and a variety of car loans, in addition to gold banking and a range of insurance services.  The Group also owns IBU International Finance Limited, an international banking company in Hong Kong.

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Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN)

Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

Bear Market Rally in Progress as $DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Year Yields Decline. Italy FTSE MIB with a bullish YTD downtrend reversal, Switzerland...

Vermilion Research

Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Europe $STOXX 50, Japan $TOPIX $Nikkei 225, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising $DXY, Global Sovereign Yields Remain Major Headwinds for global...

Vermilion Research

India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview

With 9 trading days to go in the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from Mid to Large and 7 stocks moving the other way. 2 new listings will be...

Brian Freitas

India: Preview of Stock Reclassification for Active Funds

Two-thirds of the way through the review period, we see quite a few changes to the Large/Mid/Small Cap classification for Indian stocks. The upward...

Brian Freitas

Life Insurance Corporation of India IPO - Valuation Is Ok but Its Not the Best Deal Structure

Government of India is looking to raise around US$2.7bn via selling a 3.5% stake in Life Insurance Corporation of India. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

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