External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect a temporary deceleration in banks’ FY24 earnings growth, driven by slower loan growth, in-line with past trend in election year.</li><li>With NIM, CIR and CoC remain in check, and healthy asset quality, we expect big-4 banks’ to resume robust net profit growth in FY25.</li><li>We reinitiate the banking sector coverage with Overweight rating and BBCA as our top pick in FY24, followed by BMRI.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect a temporary deceleration in banks’ FY24 earnings growth, driven by slower loan growth, in-line with past trend in election year.With NIM, CIR and CoC remain in check, and healthy asset quality, we expect big-4 banks’ to resume robust net profit growth in FY25.We reinitiate the banking sector coverage with Overweight rating and BBCA as our top pick in FY24, followed by BMRI.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Moderating FY24 Growth, but Intact Fundamentals Shall Support High Growth to Resume in FY25

<ul><li>The big-4 banks’ Aug 23 results show that the y-o-y loans growth (at 8.4-12.3% in Aug-23) has continued to outpace deposits growth (4.9-9.8%), except for BBRI whose deposits grew by 12.3% in Aug 23 driven by its TD.</li><li>From a liquidity standpoint, BBCA has the upper hand given its LDR at 69% compared to around 90% for the others as of Aug 23.</li><li>With the market awaiting liquidity improvements, the rising trend in the LDR and TD growth may persist in Sep 23 in our view. Our sector and stock ratings are currently Under Review.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The big-4 banks’ Aug 23 results show that the y-o-y loans growth (at 8.4-12.3% in Aug-23) has continued to outpace deposits growth (4.9-9.8%), except for BBRI whose deposits grew by 12.3% in Aug 23 driven by its TD.From a liquidity standpoint, BBCA has the upper hand given its LDR at 69% compared to around 90% for the others as of Aug 23.With the market awaiting liquidity improvements, the rising trend in the LDR and TD growth may persist in Sep 23 in our view. Our sector and stock ratings are currently Under Review.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banking - Growth in TD While Awaiting Liquidity Improvements

<ul><li>Yield volatility and heightened China risk factor has led to recent market volatility resulting in outflow from both Equity and Fixed Income.</li><li>The recession narrative appears abating as seen in more steepening yield curve as the 10 years UST yield rise.</li><li>BI continue to intervene the market to manage IDR stability. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yield volatility and heightened China risk factor has led to recent market volatility resulting in outflow from both Equity and Fixed Income.The recession narrative appears abating as seen in more steepening yield curve as the 10 years UST yield rise.BI continue to intervene the market to manage IDR stability. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro and Flows Tracker - Rising External Risks

<ul><li>The global manufacturing sector depicted some positive signs in July, with more countries reporting stronger activity, including Indonesia</li><li>While China's weak growth is a concern, the impact might be offset by better growth in other G20 economies, supporting the narrative of a soft landing towards the year-end, which may help mitigate potential volatility in asset prices</li><li>Domestic economic activity has been lacklustre, with more companies reporting lower-than-expected results</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The global manufacturing sector depicted some positive signs in July, with more countries reporting stronger activity, including IndonesiaWhile China's weak growth is a concern, the impact might be offset by better growth in other G20 economies, supporting the narrative of a soft landing towards the year-end, which may help mitigate potential volatility in asset pricesDomestic economic activity has been lacklustre, with more companies reporting lower-than-expected resultsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro and Flows Tracker - Not All Is Well

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We reiterate our BUY call on BMRI with a higher GGM-derived TP of IDR7,500 (implying 2.5x 2024F PBV) as we roll over our valuation to next year post the release of solid 1H23 results.</li><li>BMRI’s management lowered its CoC guidance to 1.1-1.3% (from 1.3-1.5%) as assets quality should continue to improve going forward.</li><li>We thus cut our CoC forecast to 130/118bps for FY23/24F resulting in higher FY23/24F earnings of IDR48.8/56.7tn with forecast ROAE of 20.4/21.5%, respectively. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We reiterate our BUY call on BMRI with a higher GGM-derived TP of IDR7,500 (implying 2.5x 2024F PBV) as we roll over our valuation to next year post the release of solid 1H23 results.BMRI’s management lowered its CoC guidance to 1.1-1.3% (from 1.3-1.5%) as assets quality should continue to improve going forward.We thus cut our CoC forecast to 130/118bps for FY23/24F resulting in higher FY23/24F earnings of IDR48.8/56.7tn with forecast ROAE of 20.4/21.5%, respectively. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) - Continuing to Impress

Indonesia

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk is formed by the merger of four state-owned banks, namely Pt Bank Bumi Daya, PT Bank Dagang Negara, PT Bank Ekspor Import Indonesia (Bank Exim), PT Bank Pembangunan Indonesia (Bank Bapindo). The Bank operates in the commercial banking services.

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Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)

Banks: Moderating FY24 Growth, but Intact Fundamentals Shall Support High Growth to Resume in FY25

We expect a temporary deceleration in banks’ FY24 earnings growth, driven by slower loan growth, in-line with past trend in election year.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banking - Growth in TD While Awaiting Liquidity Improvements

With the market awaiting liquidity improvements, the rising trend in the LDR and TD growth may persist in Sep 23 in our view. Our sector and stock...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro and Flows Tracker - Rising External Risks

Yield volatility and heightened China risk factor has led to recent market volatility resulting in outflow from both Equity and Fixed Income.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro and Flows Tracker - Not All Is Well

The global manufacturing sector depicted some positive signs in July, with more countries reporting stronger activity, including Indonesia

BRI Danareksa Research

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) - Continuing to Impress

We reiterate our BUY call on BMRI with a higher GGM-derived TP of IDR7,500 (implying 2.5x 2024F PBV) as we roll over our valuation to next year...

BRI Danareksa Research

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