Indonesia Political Risk Analyst

Kevin O’Rourke

Reformasi

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Incumbent President Joko Widodo maintains a strong lead over his sole competitive rival, Gerindra Chair Lt Gen (ret) Prabowo Subianto, whom he beat by six percentage points in 2014.  But Prabowo's brother signaled this week that a second presidential run against Widodo is uncertain.  The brother, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, said "health and [financial] logistics are factors" affecting the decision-making.  This lends some credence to recent rumors that Prabowo's family wants him to stand down because he has reputedly suffered three strokes in recent years.  If Prabowo does not run, one or two other tickets would almost certainly enter the contest.  A host of permutations of tickets are possible, but none of the potential candidates have sufficient stature and credibility to seriously challenge the relatively popular incumbent.

Incumbent President Joko Widodo maintains a strong lead over his sole competitive rival, Gerindra Chair Lt Gen (ret) Prabowo Subianto, whom he beat by six percentage points in 2014.  But Prabowo's brother signaled this week that a second presidential run against Widodo is uncertain.  The brother, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, said "health and [financial] logistics are factors" affecting the decision-making.  This lends some credence to recent rumors that Prabowo's family wants him to stand down because he has reputedly suffered three strokes in recent years.  If Prabowo does not run, one or two other tickets would almost certainly enter the contest.  A host of permutations of tickets are possible, but none of the potential candidates have sufficient stature and credibility to seriously challenge the relatively popular incumbent.  

Indonesian Political Update: New Dynamics if Widodo's Main Rival Drops Out

President Joko Widodo assigned State Secretary Pratikno to head a search team for a vice‑presidential running mate.  The former Gadjah Mada University (UGM) rector is a non-partisan confidante of the president, which suggests that Widodo may be leaning away from choosing a political‑party representative.  However, obviously suitable alternatives are few, if any.  Widodo and Pratikno may ultimately prioritize a choice who is clean, to avoid any taint of scandal affecting the ticket and, by association, Widodo’s image.

President Joko Widodo assigned State Secretary Pratikno to head a search team for a vice‑presidential running mate.  The former Gadjah Mada University (UGM) rector is a non-partisan confidante of the president, which suggests that Widodo may be leaning away from choosing a political‑party representative.  However, obviously suitable alternatives are few, if any.  Widodo and Pratikno may ultimately prioritize a choice who is clean, to avoid any taint of scandal affecting the ticket and, by association, Widodo’s image.

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Danamon Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/135" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:135:1">Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN IJ)</a> has shown good fundamental improvement, especially with reduced losses of micro loans operations and lower NPL ratio.</li><li>Its loan growth is likely to remain lagged (vs. the industry) largely due to sizable loan exposure to auto industry.</li><li>Our review of latest regulation on bank ownership cap reveals that M&amp;A could go through although Mandatory Tender Offer (MTO) is not guaranteed.</li><li>Given M&amp;A story/hope, BDMN is a Trading Buy. </li></ul>

Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN IJ) has shown good fundamental improvement, especially with reduced losses of micro loans operations and lower NPL ratio.Its loan growth is likely to remain lagged (vs. the industry) largely due to sizable loan exposure to auto industry.Our review of latest regulation on bank ownership cap reveals that M&amp;A could go through although Mandatory Tender Offer (MTO) is not guaranteed.Given M&amp;A story/hope, BDMN is a Trading Buy. 

Bank Danamon: Fundamentals Revisited Plus Thoughts on M&A

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Having revisited <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/483" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:483:1">Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk Pt (BTPN IJ)</a>'s fundamentals, we believe that things are not as bad as 2017 headline numbers suggest.</li><li>In fact, efficiency measures that would bear fruits in lowering operating costs are praiseworthy and a testament to solid management quality.</li><li>M&amp;A angle has renewed investor interest in BTPN since recently announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/135" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:135:1">Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN IJ)</a> acquisition is done at a much higher PB multiple (2.0x PB).</li><li>BTPN trades attractively at 1.12x 2018 PB (46% discount to the sector average) and 10.4x 2018 PE (28% discount), the valuation that does not reflect M&amp;A angle/premium at all.</li></ul>

Having revisited Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk Pt (BTPN IJ)'s fundamentals, we believe that things are not as bad as 2017 headline numbers suggest.In fact, efficiency measures that would bear fruits in lowering operating costs are praiseworthy and a testament to solid management quality.M&amp;A angle has renewed investor interest in BTPN since recently announced Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN IJ) acquisition is done at a much higher PB multiple (2.0x PB).BTPN trades attractively at 1.12x 2018 PB (46% discount to the sector average) and 10.4x 2018 PE (28% discount), the valuation that does not reflect M&amp;A angle/premium at all.

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional: With Fundamentals Remaining Solid, Further Upside Seen

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Highlighted themes and actionable charts: Reiterating BRIC overweight. This country grouping continues to outperform broad EM, and we believe BRIC will be a primary source of outperformance relative to the MSCI EM Index moving forward.  Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations within EM.

Highlighted themes and actionable charts: Reiterating BRIC overweight. This country grouping continues to outperform broad EM, and we believe BRIC will be a primary source of outperformance relative to the MSCI EM Index moving forward.  Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations within EM.

EM Equity Strategy: Indonesia Perking Up; Overweight BRIC, Tech, and Health Care

Indonesia

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides banking and related services.  The Bank also provides custodianship, trusteeship, and management of pension funds of financial institutions.  Through its subsidiaries, the Bank also provides leasing and consumer financing services.

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Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)

Indonesian Political Update: New Dynamics if Widodo's Main Rival Drops Out

Incumbent President Joko Widodo maintains a strong lead over his sole competitive rival, Gerindra Chair Lt Gen (ret) Prabowo Subianto, whom he beat...

Kevin O’Rourke

Widodo's VP Search: No Obvious Choice

President Joko Widodo assigned State Secretary Pratikno to head a search team for a vice‑presidential running mate. The former Gadjah Mada...

Kevin O’Rourke

Bank Danamon: Fundamentals Revisited Plus Thoughts on M&A

Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN IJ) has shown good fundamental improvement, especially with reduced losses of micro loans operations and lower...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional: With Fundamentals Remaining Solid, Further Upside Seen

Having revisited Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk Pt (BTPN IJ)'s fundamentals, we believe that things are not as bad as 2017 headline numbers...

Johannes Salim, CFA

EM Equity Strategy: Indonesia Perking Up; Overweight BRIC, Tech, and Health Care

Highlighted themes and actionable charts: Reiterating BRIC overweight. This country grouping continues to outperform broad EM, and we believe BRIC...

Vermilion Research

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