ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a></p>
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-macro-watch-august-the-new-tech-wars-chinese-flood" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42012" rel="noopener">Thai Macro Watch (August): The New Tech Wars, Chinese Flood</a>, our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> five global events and their impact on Thai equities.</p><h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ace-hardware-indonesia-aces-ij-building-a-road-to-recovery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42520" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Building A Road to Recovery,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits one of Indonesia's leading retailers after a call with management.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/akr-corporindo-akra-ij-the-landed-logistics-player" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42569" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - The Landed Logistics Player,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits this Indonesian chemical and fuel distributor with an increasing contribution coming from its JIIPE industrial estate. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sats-from-serving-22-5m-pax-in-1q20-to-serving-200k-pax-in-1q21-houston-we-have-a-problem" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42488" rel="noopener">SATS: From Serving 22.5M Pax in 1Q20 -&gt; To Serving 200K Pax in 1Q21. Houston We Have a Problem.</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits Singapore airport maintenance leader post its recent numbers. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/permata-bank-mandatory-takeover-launched-finally" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42577" rel="noopener">Permata Bank Mandatory Takeover Launched. Finally.</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> revisits the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-permata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:728:1" rel="noopener">Bank Permata (BNLI IJ)</a> deal as it enters its final stage.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sprime-good-point-of-entry-singha-connection-could-add-further-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42589" rel="noopener">SPRIME: Good Point of Entry, Singha Connection Could Add Further Upside,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> initiates coverage on SPRIME with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt11.20, implying an upside of 21% from the current share price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aimirt-good-growth-outlook-but-already-priced-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42639" rel="noopener">AIMIRT: Good Growth Outlook, but Already Priced In</a> initiates coverage on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aim-industrial-growth-freehold-and-leasehold-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29180:1" rel="noopener">AIM Industrial Growth Freehold and Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (AIMIRT TB)</a> with a HOLD recommendation based on a target price of Bt14.30, implying an upside of 6% from the current share price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/teamg-cost-savings-and-government-stimulus-to-drive-profit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42628" rel="noopener">TEAMG: Cost-Savings and Government Stimulus to Drive Profit,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/team-consulting-engineering-and-management-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29175:1" rel="noopener">TEAM Consulting Engineering and Management (TEAMG TB)</a> and maintains a BUY recommendation on the company as he increases the target price to Bt2.81 from Bt2.42, implying an upside of 17% from the current share price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sisb-good-entry-point-for-investment-in-private-schools" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42632" rel="noopener">SISB: Good Entry Point for Investment in Private Schools,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> initiates coverage on SPRIME with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt11.20, implying an upside of 21% from the current share price.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sflex-staying-behind-key-players-in-the-market" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42679" rel="noopener">SFLEX: Staying Behind Key Players in the Market,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> initiates coverage on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/starflex-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29172:1" rel="noopener">Starflex PCL (SFLEX TB)</a> with a SELL recommendation based on a target price of Bt8.90, implying a downside of 28% from the current price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/boffice-asset-expansion-motivates-the-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42678" rel="noopener">BOFFICE: Asset Expansion Motivates the Upside,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> initiates coverage on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhiraj-office-leasehold-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29173:1" rel="noopener">Bhiraj Office Leasehold REIT (BOFFICE TB)</a> with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt14.10, implying an upside of 18% from the current share price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/all-valuation-remains-undemanding-expect-further-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42635" rel="noopener">ALL: Valuation Remains Undemanding, Expect Further Upside</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/all-inspire-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29177:1" rel="noopener">All Inspire Development PCL (ALL TB),</a> where he has a Buy recommendation based on a target price of Bt4.39, implying an upside of 31% from the current price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/m-rapid-sssg-recovery-with-potential-growth-from-seafood-restaurant" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42578" rel="noopener">M: Rapid SSSG Recovery with Potential Growth from Seafood Restaurant,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> circle back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mk-restaurants-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17689:1" rel="noopener">MK Restaurants Group (M TB)</a> after attending the recent analyst briefing, where they came away more positive with signs of an SSSG recovery post lockdown easing.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/egco-positive-2h20-earnings-outlook-from-better-overseas-performance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42634" rel="noopener">EGCO: Positive 2H20 Earnings Outlook from Better Overseas Performance,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electricity-generating-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6149:1" rel="noopener">Electricity Generating (EGCO TB)</a> after the company's positive analyst briefing. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wice-expect-earnings-to-continue-growing-yoy-in-2h20" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42537" rel="noopener">WICE: Expect Earnings to Continue Growing YoY in 2H20,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> circle back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wice-logistics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26172:1" rel="noopener">Wice Logistics (WICE TB)</a> after going to the company's analyst briefing. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hana-covid-19-impact-has-passed" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42575" rel="noopener">HANA: Covid-19 Impact Has Passed,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisits one of Thailand's leading electronics manufacturing services companies. </p><h3>Sector and Thematic Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-banks-most-to-recover" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42493" rel="noopener">Indonesia Banks – Most To Recover?,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> zooms in on the potential recovery to come for Indonesian Banks. </p><div><div><div id="ember9100"><div><section><div id="ember9112"><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-banks-oversized-dividends" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42535" rel="noopener">Asia Banks – Oversized Dividends,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> zeros in on dividend payments for Asian banks during the pandemic period. </p></div></div></section></div></div></div></div><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-rakyat-indonesia-pondering-pricing-on-a-promised-new-issue" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42524" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia: Pondering Pricing on a Promised New Issue</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:5194" rel="noopener">Hank Calenti, CFA</a> takes a look at the proposed US$1bn bond issue from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> and finds it appealing. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> could price a potential five-year senior unsecured </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in ASEAN@Smartkarma
Macro InsightsIn Thai Macro Watch (August): The New Tech Wars, Chinese Flood, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA five global events and their impact on Thai equities.Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Building A Road to Recovery, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits one of Indonesia's leading retailers after a call with management.In AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - The Landed Logistics Player,Angus Mackintosh revisits this Indonesian chemical and fuel distributor with an increasing contribution coming from its JIIPE industrial estate. In SATS: From Serving 22.5M Pax in 1Q20 -&gt; To Serving 200K Pax in 1Q21. Houston We Have a Problem. CrossASEAN Insight Provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits Singapore airport maintenance leader post its recent numbers. In Permata Bank Mandatory Takeover Launched. Finally.Travis Lundy revisits the Bank Permata (BNLI IJ) deal as it enters its final stage.In SPRIME: Good Point of Entry, Singha Connection Could Add Further Upside,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA initiates coverage on SPRIME with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt11.20, implying an upside of 21% from the current share price. In AIMIRT: Good Growth Outlook, but Already Priced In initiates coverage on AIM Industrial Growth Freehold and Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (AIMIRT TB) with a HOLD recommendation based on a target price of Bt14.30, implying an upside of 6% from the current share price. In TEAMG: Cost-Savings and Government Stimulus to Drive Profit,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA revisits TEAM Consulting Engineering and Management (TEAMG TB) and maintains a BUY recommendation on the company as he increases the target price to Bt2.81 from Bt2.42, implying an upside of 17% from the current share price. In SISB: Good Entry Point for Investment in Private Schools,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA initiates coverage on SPRIME with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt11.20, implying an upside of 21% from the current share price.In SFLEX: Staying Behind Key Players in the Market,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA initiates coverage on Starflex PCL (SFLEX TB) with a SELL recommendation based on a target price of Bt8.90, implying a downside of 28% from the current price. In BOFFICE: Asset Expansion Motivates the Upside,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA initiates coverage on Bhiraj Office Leasehold REIT (BOFFICE TB) with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt14.10, implying an upside of 18% from the current share price. In ALL: Valuation Remains Undemanding, Expect Further Upside, Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA revisits All Inspire Development PCL (ALL TB), where he has a Buy recommendation based on a target price of Bt4.39, implying an upside of 31% from the current price. In M: Rapid SSSG Recovery with Potential Growth from Seafood Restaurant, our friends at Country Group circle back to MK Restaurants Group (M TB) after attending the recent analyst briefing, where they came away more positive with signs of an SSSG recovery post lockdown easing.In EGCO: Positive 2H20 Earnings Outlook from Better Overseas Performance,Country Group revisit Electricity Generating (EGCO TB) after the company's positive analyst briefing. In WICE: Expect Earnings to Continue Growing YoY in 2H20,Country Group circle back to Wice Logistics (WICE TB) after going to the company's analyst briefing. In HANA: Covid-19 Impact Has Passed,Country Group revisits one of Thailand's leading electronics manufacturing services companies. Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Indonesia Banks – Most To Recover?, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush zooms in on the potential recovery to come for Indonesian Banks. In Asia Banks – Oversized Dividends,Daniel Tabbush zeros in on dividend payments for Asian banks during the pandemic period. Credit InsightsIn Bank Rakyat Indonesia: Pondering Pricing on a Promised New IssueHank Calenti, CFA takes a look at the proposed US$1bn bond issue from Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) and finds it appealing. Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) could price a potential five-year senior unsecured 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Ace Hardwear, Thai Macro, and Indonesian Banks

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: justify;">In this Smartkarma Original, we seek to study how diversity and incentives influence stock performance and profitability. We tallied diversity and incentive data related to the board of directors, management, and employees across major economies in Asia and picked top 10 companies of each country in terms of market capitalization. We chose to exclude major companies listed in exchanges of other economies such as Tencent and Alibaba to limit our sample size.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Then we devised diversity and incentive scores to assign to those companies and compare those scores against a 5-year trend of their return on shareholders’ equity (ROE) ratios and 1-year stock performance from 1-July-19 to 30-June-20 over its corresponding exchange indices.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The report covers diversity vs. incentives in Asia, diversity score vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, incentives vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, diversity + incentives scores vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, companies with top and bottom diversity + incentive scores, countries with top and bottom average diversity + incentive scores, and incentive score vs. staffing cost trend. </p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The results show that companies with high diversity scores do perform well. A high diversity score also has a positive impact on the ROE trend, based on our regression analysis at 95% confidence level. We found that employee incentives are not significant as staff diversity but they can still have an influence on company performances at a lower 90% confidence level.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">We note that this study is at the preliminary stage and stock performance is a function of many factors, not only the diversity scores that we concluded. Needless to say, our diversity and incentive scores also reflect the level of disclosures by selected companies, not necessarily the actual practice within each company. Our diversity and incentive scores are also not a credit rating or ranking with peers and, hence, do not reflect default probability of selected companies.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">We caution that in Asia, many diversity trends in the West may not apply. The fact that many Asian business communities may remain less sensitive to equal opportunities for females, disabled persons, or LGBTQ communities could make returns of Asian companies less correlated to diversity than in the West. Likewise, additional incentives in some countries in Asia may not be necessary as employees’ strong performance (i.e. in Japan) is a norm, according to the prevalent work culture.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Bondcritic is developing a scoring model, which includes environment, social development, and corporate governance; the last of which cover diversity and incentives. This report is the first of the series to uncover shenanigans in the Asian corporate sector.</p>

In this Smartkarma Original, we seek to study how diversity and incentives influence stock performance and profitability. We tallied diversity and incentive data related to the board of directors, management, and employees across major economies in Asia and picked top 10 companies of each country in terms of market capitalization. We chose to exclude major companies listed in exchanges of other economies such as Tencent and Alibaba to limit our sample size.
Then we devised diversity and incentive scores to assign to those companies and compare those scores against a 5-year trend of their return on shareholders’ equity (ROE) ratios and 1-year stock performance from 1-July-19 to 30-June-20 over its corresponding exchange indices.
The report covers diversity vs. incentives in Asia, diversity score vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, incentives vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, diversity + incentives scores vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, companies with top and bottom diversity + incentive scores, countries with top and bottom average diversity + incentive scores, and incentive score vs. staffing cost trend. 
The results show that companies with high diversity scores do perform well. A high diversity score also has a positive impact on the ROE trend, based on our regression analysis at 95% confidence level. We found that employee incentives are not significant as staff diversity but they can still have an influence on company performances at a lower 90% confidence level.
We note that this study is at the preliminary stage and stock performance is a function of many factors, not only the diversity scores that we concluded. Needless to say, our diversity and incentive scores also reflect the level of disclosures by selected companies, not necessarily the actual practice within each company. Our diversity and incentive scores are also not a credit rating or ranking with peers and, hence, do not reflect default probability of selected companies.
We caution that in Asia, many diversity trends in the West may not apply. The fact that many Asian business communities may remain less sensitive to equal opportunities for females, disabled persons, or LGBTQ communities could make returns of Asian companies less correlated to diversity than in the West. Likewise, additional incentives in some countries in Asia may not be necessary as employees’ strong performance (i.e. in Japan) is a norm, according to the prevalent work culture.
Bondcritic is developing a scoring model, which includes environment, social development, and corporate governance; the last of which cover diversity and incentives. This report is the first of the series to uncover shenanigans in the Asian corporate sector.

Asian Governance: Diversity & Incentives Through the Cultural Lens

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<p>Few countries compare. Banks in Indonesia saw staggering credit costs during 2Q20. For 40 banks the average rate of growth QoQ was 126%. The economy has reopened and there are improving signs, as with most every economies globally, at least outside of Latin America. Given banks' exceptional sequential growth in credit costs during the June quarter, Indonesia’s banks may have some of the most radical recoveries during 3Q20. Or at the least, their credit costs can come down just as dramatically.</p>

Few countries compare. Banks in Indonesia saw staggering credit costs during 2Q20. For 40 banks the average rate of growth QoQ was 126%. The economy has reopened and there are improving signs, as with most every economies globally, at least outside of Latin America. Given banks' exceptional sequential growth in credit costs during the June quarter, Indonesia’s banks may have some of the most radical recoveries during 3Q20. Or at the least, their credit costs can come down just as dramatically.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>All eyes were on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US),</a> South East Asia's biggest market cap company, ahead of the release of its 2Q2020 results yesterday. Revenue growth surprised on the upside and although headline losses were higher in 2Q2020, margins improved and the EBITDA loss per order fell significantly in 2Q2020. It also saw its monetisation improve in e-commerce as adjusted revenue as a percentage of GMV picked up. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> announced a much-vaunted set of results for 2Q2020, which reflected accelerating growth on fronts in gaming, e-commerce, and digital finance. It booked a 93% increase in adjusted net revenues with gross profit for the period growing by +106%. </p>
<p>Despite registering a net loss of (US$393.5m), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> booked +ve consolidated EBITDA of US$7.7m in 2Q2020 versus an EBITDA loss of (US$10.9m) in 1Q2020. </p>
<p>The company's digital entertainment business saw growth of +62% to US$716.2m, with EBITDA margin increasing to new high 61%. </p>
<p>Shopee accelerated growth on all key metrics in all markets. 2Q2020 gross orders increasing +150% to 615.9m versus +111% growth in 1Q2020.</p>
<p>Its adjusted revenue of US$510.6m increased to 6.4% of GMV versus 5.1% in 1Q2020. EBITDA loss per order also reduced by -51% YoY to 50c per order and versus 60c in 2Q2020. </p>
<p>The company continues to promote the platform through Live streaming events and recently showed a K Pop festival to promote the Shopee. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> has also launched a new strategy with Google called Google ads with Shopee to help its merchants.</p>
<p>Digital financial services has a strong use case, with Sea Money being used to pay for e-commerce and for gaming, as well as increasingly for third parties.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The long-term story for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> is very much intact, with the momentum behind consumers switch from offline to online seemingly sustained beyond COVID lockdowns, at least for the moment. The company is, however, trading at a significant premium to peers on 8.6x FY21E EV/SALES versus its peer group average of 5.3x FY21E EV/SALES. This is a stock to buy on weakness, with prospects looking better in light of these recent numbers.</p>
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All eyes were on Sea Ltd (SE US), South East Asia's biggest market cap company, ahead of the release of its 2Q2020 results yesterday. Revenue growth surprised on the upside and although headline losses were higher in 2Q2020, margins improved and the EBITDA loss per order fell significantly in 2Q2020. It also saw its monetisation improve in e-commerce as adjusted revenue as a percentage of GMV picked up. 
Sea Ltd (SE US) announced a much-vaunted set of results for 2Q2020, which reflected accelerating growth on fronts in gaming, e-commerce, and digital finance. It booked a 93% increase in adjusted net revenues with gross profit for the period growing by +106%. 
Despite registering a net loss of (US$393.5m), Sea Ltd (SE US) booked +ve consolidated EBITDA of US$7.7m in 2Q2020 versus an EBITDA loss of (US$10.9m) in 1Q2020. 
The company's digital entertainment business saw growth of +62% to US$716.2m, with EBITDA margin increasing to new high 61%. 
Shopee accelerated growth on all key metrics in all markets. 2Q2020 gross orders increasing +150% to 615.9m versus +111% growth in 1Q2020.
Its adjusted revenue of US$510.6m increased to 6.4% of GMV versus 5.1% in 1Q2020. EBITDA loss per order also reduced by -51% YoY to 50c per order and versus 60c in 2Q2020. 
The company continues to promote the platform through Live streaming events and recently showed a K Pop festival to promote the Shopee. Sea Ltd (SE US) has also launched a new strategy with Google called Google ads with Shopee to help its merchants.
Digital financial services has a strong use case, with Sea Money being used to pay for e-commerce and for gaming, as well as increasingly for third parties.

The long-term story for Sea Ltd (SE US) is very much intact, with the momentum behind consumers switch from offline to online seemingly sustained beyond COVID lockdowns, at least for the moment. The company is, however, trading at a significant premium to peers on 8.6x FY21E EV/SALES versus its peer group average of 5.3x FY21E EV/SALES. This is a stock to buy on weakness, with prospects looking better in light of these recent numbers.


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<p>This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights.</p>
<p>Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a></p>
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/what-drives-rising-gold-prices" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42091" rel="noopener">What Drives Rising Gold Prices?,</a> Strategist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-j-howell" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2312" rel="noopener">Michael J. Howell</a> analyses driver drivers behind the rising gold price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/political-pit-stop-aug-20-regime-jitters" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41483" rel="noopener">Political Pit Stop (Aug'20): Regime Jitters,</a> out Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> revisits the political situation in Thailand and identifies potential pitfalls ahead. </p><h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-central-asia-bbca-ij-liability-protection" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41598" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - Liability Protection,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's biggest private bank following a conversation with management. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kino-indonesia-kino-ij-sanitised-recovery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42045" rel="noopener">Kino Indonesia (KINO IJ) - Sanitised Recovery,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits one of Indonesia's less well-covered consumer players after a conversation with management and finds a promising outlook.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kino-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1083:1" rel="noopener"></a>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/procurri-us-ppp-saves-1h20-remains-cheap-at-0-4x-ev-sales-but-no-catalyst" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42110" rel="noopener">Procurri: US PPP Saves 1H20; Remains Cheap at 0.4x EV/Sales but No Catalyst,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits this IT Hardware player and continues to see the value.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/procurri-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24110:1" rel="noopener"></a>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/airport-of-thailand-aot-travel-bubble-mof-and-certify-hub" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42048" rel="noopener">Airport of Thailand (AoT): Travel Bubble, MoF, and Certify Hub,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> revisits Thailand's airport operator in light of the country's ever-changing tourism strategy.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bts-and-bangkok-airways-utapao-brother-in-arms" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40027" rel="noopener">BTS and Bangkok Airways, UTaPao Brother-In-Arms,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bts-group-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15943:1" rel="noopener">BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-airways-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:457:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Airways (BA TB)</a> after meetings with management. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/siam-commercial-bank-surprising-on-the-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42161" rel="noopener">Siam Commercial Bank: Surprising on the Upside,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/paul-hollingworth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2554" rel="noopener">Paul Hollingworth</a> zeros in on this leading Thai bank.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/temasek-walks-away-from-keppel-deal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42047" rel="noopener">Temasek Walks Away from Keppel Deal,</a> events specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> comments on the untimely end to this takeover by Temasek. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/keppel-temasek-pulls-the-partial-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42059" rel="noopener">Keppel: Temasek Pulls the Partial Offer,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1680" rel="noopener">Arun George</a> also comments on Temasek's decision to pull out of this long-standing deal. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-industries-a-simple-story-which-looks-complicated" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42134" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Industries - A Simple Story Which Looks Complicated,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> comments on this complicated capital raise. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-marine-rights-decided-and-virtual-ipo-set-still-avoid" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42076" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine Rights Decided And "Virtual IPO" Set (Still Avoid),</a> events specialist attempts to decipher this extremely complicated restructuring. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/b-work-offers-price-upside-and-a-good-dividend-yield" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42157" rel="noopener">B-WORK: Offers Price Upside and a Good Dividend Yield,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> initiates coverage on B-WORK with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt12.80.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/advanc-2q20-performance-hindered-by-a-drop-in-arpu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42036" rel="noopener">ADVANC:  2Q20 Performance Hindered by a Drop in ARPU,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> report back on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> after recent results. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cbg-trading-on-high-valuation-zone" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42040" rel="noopener">CBG: Trading on High Valuation Zone,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> maintain their BUY rating and rollover their target price to THB141 based on 35x FY21E PER (Previous TP is THB110), the average of the Thailand energy drink group. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-2q20-earnings-reached-its-peak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42086" rel="noopener">ASIAN: 2Q20 Earnings Reached Its Peak</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-sea-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19827:1" rel="noopener">Asian Seafoods Coldstorage (ASIAN TB)</a> and maintain their ‘SELL’ rating with a new target price at Bt10.3 (from Bt7.2).</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/planb-expect-net-loss-in-2q20-to-be-bottom-of-this-year" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42156" rel="noopener">PLANB: Expect Net Loss in 2Q20 to Be Bottom of This Year,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> report back on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/plan-b-media-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24702:1" rel="noopener">Plan B Media (PLANB TB)</a> after a telephone call with management. </p><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aa-reit-s-bond-first-reit-perpetual-in-the-new-normal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42049" rel="noopener">AA REIT S$ Bond - First REIT Perpetual in the New Normal</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/lakshmi-iyer-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:9363" rel="noopener">Lakshmi Iyer, CFA</a> reports back after a new bond issue from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aims-amp-capital-industrial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:933:1" rel="noopener">AIMS APAC REIT (AAREIT SP).</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aims-amp-capital-industrial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:933:1" rel="noopener">AIMS APAC REIT (AAREIT SP)</a> issued a perpetual security on August 6th (5.65% SGD125mn deal).  She thinks the deal is interesting for several reasons (timing of the issue, spread on coupon reset, etc.). She does not expect the bond to tighten significantly as it is correctly priced with respect to the senior debt.</p>


This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in ASEAN@Smartkarma
Macro InsightsIn What Drives Rising Gold Prices?, Strategist Michael J. Howell analyses driver drivers behind the rising gold price. In Political Pit Stop (Aug'20): Regime Jitters, out Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA revisits the political situation in Thailand and identifies potential pitfalls ahead. Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - Liability Protection, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's biggest private bank following a conversation with management. In Kino Indonesia (KINO IJ) - Sanitised Recovery, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits one of Indonesia's less well-covered consumer players after a conversation with management and finds a promising outlook.In Procurri: US PPP Saves 1H20; Remains Cheap at 0.4x EV/Sales but No Catalyst, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits this IT Hardware player and continues to see the value.In Airport of Thailand (AoT): Travel Bubble, MoF, and Certify Hub, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko revisits Thailand's airport operator in light of the country's ever-changing tourism strategy.In BTS and Bangkok Airways, UTaPao Brother-In-Arms, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA comments on BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB) and Bangkok Airways (BA TB) after meetings with management. In Siam Commercial Bank: Surprising on the Upside, banking specialist Paul Hollingworth zeros in on this leading Thai bank.In Temasek Walks Away from Keppel Deal, events specialist Travis Lundy comments on the untimely end to this takeover by Temasek. In Keppel: Temasek Pulls the Partial Offer,Arun George also comments on Temasek's decision to pull out of this long-standing deal. In Sembcorp Industries - A Simple Story Which Looks Complicated,Travis Lundy comments on this complicated capital raise. In Sembcorp Marine Rights Decided And "Virtual IPO" Set (Still Avoid), events specialist attempts to decipher this extremely complicated restructuring. In B-WORK: Offers Price Upside and a Good Dividend Yield,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA initiates coverage on B-WORK with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt12.80.In ADVANC:  2Q20 Performance Hindered by a Drop in ARPU, our friends at Country Group report back on Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) after recent results. In CBG: Trading on High Valuation Zone,Country Group maintain their BUY rating and rollover their target price to THB141 based on 35x FY21E PER (Previous TP is THB110), the average of the Thailand energy drink group. In ASIAN: 2Q20 Earnings Reached Its PeakCountry Group revisit Asian Seafoods Coldstorage (ASIAN TB) and maintain their ‘SELL’ rating with a new target price at Bt10.3 (from Bt7.2).In PLANB: Expect Net Loss in 2Q20 to Be Bottom of This Year,Country Group report back on Plan B Media (PLANB TB) after a telephone call with management. Credit InsightsIn AA REIT S$ Bond - First REIT Perpetual in the New Normal, Lakshmi Iyer, CFA reports back after a new bond issue from AIMS APAC REIT (AAREIT SP).AIMS APAC REIT (AAREIT SP) issued a perpetual security on August 6th (5.65% SGD125mn deal).  She thinks the deal is interesting for several reasons (timing of the issue, spread on coupon reset, etc.). She does not expect the bond to tighten significantly as it is correctly priced with respect to the senior debt.

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Thai Politics, BCA's +ve Liabilities, and Singapore O&M

Indonesia

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides banking and related services.  The Bank also provides custodianship, trusteeship, and management of pension funds of financial institutions.  Through its subsidiaries, the Bank also provides leasing and consumer financing services.

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Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)

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