External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Supported by lower CoF increases compared to their peers, only BBCA, BRIS, and NISP booked double digit NP growth in 4M24.</li><li>Despite a slight improvement (-4bps mom) in Apr24, COF pressure might return in May24 from a higher benchmark rate.</li><li>For its resilient CoF, higher liquidity, and better NP growth outlook compared to its peers, BBCA remains our top pick in the sector.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Supported by lower CoF increases compared to their peers, only BBCA, BRIS, and NISP booked double digit NP growth in 4M24.Despite a slight improvement (-4bps mom) in Apr24, COF pressure might return in May24 from a higher benchmark rate.For its resilient CoF, higher liquidity, and better NP growth outlook compared to its peers, BBCA remains our top pick in the sector.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We project a softer FY24 EPS growth outlook of +3% yoy (vs. +5% prev.) amid slowing growth in 2Q24, but see limited further downside risk.</li><li>JCI’s current 1.8x PBV (22% disc. to 10-year mean) seems unwarranted as we forecast FY24 ROE to fall only slightly to 9.5% (vs. 10y avg of 10%).</li><li>We lower our FY24-end JCI target slightly to 7,670 (vs. 7,830 prev.); our stock picks favor defensive and quality names.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We project a softer FY24 EPS growth outlook of +3% yoy (vs. +5% prev.) amid slowing growth in 2Q24, but see limited further downside risk.JCI’s current 1.8x PBV (22% disc. to 10-year mean) seems unwarranted as we forecast FY24 ROE to fall only slightly to 9.5% (vs. 10y avg of 10%).We lower our FY24-end JCI target slightly to 7,670 (vs. 7,830 prev.); our stock picks favor defensive and quality names.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Growth Headwinds Priced In, but We Prefer Defensive and ‘quality’ Amid Lingering Uncertainties

<ul><li>We estimate the big-4 banks’ FY24F earnings to be potentially 1-6% lower if the BI rate is unchanged; BBCA as the least affected bank.</li><li>While previously a higher-for-longer scenario drove a lower ROE and sharp de-rating, FY24F ROE is resilient amid better asset quality.</li><li>We remain Overweight on the banking sector at the current implied CoE of 9.0%, -1SD to its 5-year average. BBCA remains our top pick.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate the big-4 banks’ FY24F earnings to be potentially 1-6% lower if the BI rate is unchanged; BBCA as the least affected bank.While previously a higher-for-longer scenario drove a lower ROE and sharp de-rating, FY24F ROE is resilient amid better asset quality.We remain Overweight on the banking sector at the current implied CoE of 9.0%, -1SD to its 5-year average. BBCA remains our top pick.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Solid asset quality and capital to weather macro uncertainties (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity.</li><li>We expect the big-4 banks to still deliver 5-15% EPS growth supported by 9-16% loans growth and better liquidity in 2H24.</li><li>Maintain Overweight with BBCA as our top pick in the sector given its higher liquidity, CASA ratio, and earnings growth.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity.We expect the big-4 banks to still deliver 5-15% EPS growth supported by 9-16% loans growth and better liquidity in 2H24.Maintain Overweight with BBCA as our top pick in the sector given its higher liquidity, CASA ratio, and earnings growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

<ul><li>The smooth elections bode well for stability, while the likelihood of a one-round Presidential election lowers market uncertainty.</li><li>In our view, potential positives from a Prabowo govt are the prospect of higher economic growth, aided fiscal expansion and the key programs.</li><li>We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The smooth elections bode well for stability, while the likelihood of a one-round Presidential election lowers market uncertainty.In our view, potential positives from a Prabowo govt are the prospect of higher economic growth, aided fiscal expansion and the key programs.We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Possible Positive ST Sentiment from the Likelihood of a One-Round Presidential Election

Indonesia

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides banking and related services.  The Bank also provides custodianship, trusteeship, and management of pension funds of financial institutions.  Through its subsidiaries, the Bank also provides leasing and consumer financing services.

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Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)

Banks: 4M24 Banks-Only Results

Supported by lower CoF increases compared to their peers, only BBCA, BRIS, and NISP booked double digit NP growth in 4M24.

BRI Danareksa Research

Growth Headwinds Priced In, but We Prefer Defensive and ‘quality’ Amid Lingering Uncertainties

We project a softer FY24 EPS growth outlook of +3% yoy (vs. +5% prev.) amid slowing growth in 2Q24, but see limited further downside risk

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: Solid asset quality and capital to weather macro uncertainties (OVERWEIGHT)

We estimate the big-4 banks’ FY24F earnings to be potentially 1-6% lower if the BI rate is unchanged; BBCA as the least affected bank.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity. We expect the big-4 banks to still...

BRI Danareksa Research

Possible Positive ST Sentiment from the Likelihood of a One-Round Presidential Election

We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.

BRI Danareksa Research

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