Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again.</li><li>This tends to be positive for banks.</li><li>It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making and selling products for construction.It also supports mortgage lending and collateral values behind loans.</li><li>A benign credit cycle, high provisions and reasonable margins is reason enough to be positive on Thai banks. Additionally is the current construction boom.</li><li>But the warning and focus of this note is that not all banks are created equal. And it may be surprising, that some of Thailand&rsquo;s newest banks are showing trends completely at odds with mainstream banks. </li><li>It pays to differentiate, even in a boom</li></ul>

There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again.This tends to be positive for banks.It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making and selling products for construction.It also supports mortgage lending and collateral values behind loans.A benign credit cycle, high provisions and reasonable margins is reason enough to be positive on Thai banks. Additionally is the current construction boom.But the warning and focus of this note is that not all banks are created equal. And it may be surprising, that some of Thailand&rsquo;s newest banks are showing trends completely at odds with mainstream banks. It pays to differentiate, even in a boom

Thailand: Despite Boom, Small Banks are Dull. Big Banks are Irresistible.

<ul><li>A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; </li><li>Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; </li><li>If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; </li></ul>

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; 

Thailand

Bangkok Insurance Public Company Limited provides non-life insurance including fire, hull, marine, automobile, property, as well as other miscellaneous insurance.

Allianz Ayudhya General Insurance Public Company Limited operates as a non-life insurance company. The Company offers claim for individual, business, and package insurance coverage. Allianz Ayudhya General Insurance serves customers in Thailand.

Muang Thai Insurance PCL is a non-life insurance company. The company main products include fire insurance, marine insurance, motor insurance, and miscellaneous insurance.

Nam Seng Insurance Public Company Limited provides non-life insurance including fire, marine, motor and miscellaneous insurance.

Thaivivat Insurance Public Company Limited provides non-life insurance including fire, marine, automobile, and miscellaneous insurance to its customers in Thailand.

Thai Reinsurance Public Company Limited provides reinsurance services for both life and non-life insurance with concentration on property, casualty, marine, engineering, automobile, and life insurance.

Navakij Insurance Public Company Limited provides a variety of non-life insurance including fire, marine, automobile and miscellaneous insurance.

Thaire Life Assurance PCL provides a range of reinsurance products and services. The Company offers reinsurance coverage for business, individual, group, mortgage, credit, life, personal accident, critical illness and health.

Indara Insurance Public Company Limited provides non-life insurance including fire, marine, automobile,  and miscellaneous insurance.

Charan Insurance Public Company Limited provides all classes of non-life insurance, including fire insurance, marine insurance, motor vehicle insurance and miscellaneous insurance.

LIFENET INSURANCE COMPANY provides a wide range of life insurance products and services. The company mainly provides the products and services through the internet. The company also provides asset management services.

Allianz Malaysia Berhad underwrites all classes of general insurance. Through its subsidiaries, the Company underwrites life insurance and investment linked business. Malaysia British Assurance also provides insurance broking and nominee services.

HCI Group, Inc. offers property/casualty insurance.  The Company offers homeowners', condominium owners', and tenants' insurance.

Korean Reinsurance Company is a reinsurer which underwrites life and non-life insurance.  The Company's products include life, fire, marine, auto, casualty, guarantee, pension, long-term, and foreign reinsurance.

AMERISAFE, Inc. provides workers' compensation insurance focused on small to mid-sized employers involved in hazardous industries, principally construction, trucking, logging, agriculture, oil and gas, maritime, and sawmills.

Tongyang Life Insurance offers life insurance services. The Company markets its products through individuals and groups.

Shinkong Insurance Co., Ltd. provides property and casualty insurance services. The Company mainly sells automobile, fire, and marine insurances.

Nuernberger Beteiligungs AG, through its subsidiaries, offers insurance and reinsurance products, including life insurance, disability insurance, accident, fire, theft, liability, health and automobile insurance policies.  The Company provides its services to customers in Germany and in the rest of Europe through associated companies.

Latitude Group Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides personal, commercial, and business insurance products and services, as well as offers loans and credit card solutions. Latitude Group Holdings serves individuals, governments, municipalities, and businesses.

Lotte Non-Life Insurance Company Ltd. provides a variety of non-life insurance services, such as auto, fire, marine, long-term casualty and property, pension, and retirement insurance products. The Company also operates a foreign reinsurance business.

Bangkok Life Assurance PCL offers life insurance services.

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Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA TB)

Thailand: Despite Boom, Small Banks are Dull. Big Banks are Irresistible.

There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again. This tends to be positive for banks. It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making...

Daniel Tabbush

Be Wary of High LDR Banks at Present

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank...

Daniel Tabbush

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