Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The market continues to lack new positive catalysts, while concerns over the trade war and anticipation of the outcome of the Thailand- US trade negotiations weigh on sentiment.</li><li>At the same time, the index came under pressure following a selloff in the banking sector, driven by disappointing 1Q25 earnings.</li><li>This was compounded by continued selling in blue-chip stocks, particularly in the energy, transportation, petroleum, and commerce sectors, leading to a sharp decline in the afternoon session.</li></ul>

The market continues to lack new positive catalysts, while concerns over the trade war and anticipation of the outcome of the Thailand- US trade negotiations weigh on sentiment.At the same time, the index came under pressure following a selloff in the banking sector, driven by disappointing 1Q25 earnings.This was compounded by continued selling in blue-chip stocks, particularly in the energy, transportation, petroleum, and commerce sectors, leading to a sharp decline in the afternoon session.

<ul><li>The market is closely watching the Thailand–US trade talks as well as the 1Q25 earnings results from the bank sector, leading to a cautious trading atmosphere.</li><li>However, strong buying interest in blue-chip stocks, especially DELTA, boosted the SET higher for the third consecutive day.</li><li>As a result, the index recorded a 1.97% gain from the previous week.</li></ul>

The market is closely watching the Thailand–US trade talks as well as the 1Q25 earnings results from the bank sector, leading to a cautious trading atmosphere.However, strong buying interest in blue-chip stocks, especially DELTA, boosted the SET higher for the third consecutive day.As a result, the index recorded a 1.97% gain from the previous week.

<ul><li>The SET faced selling pressure throughout the day as market sentiment was weighed down by concerns over the China-US trade war, with investors looking to reduce risk ahead of the long Songkran holiday.</li><li>However, the index’s decline was limited, as large-cap stocks showed only slight movement despite foreign investor selling.</li><li>As a result, the SET still managed to post a 0.31% gain from the previous week.</li></ul>

The SET faced selling pressure throughout the day as market sentiment was weighed down by concerns over the China-US trade war, with investors looking to reduce risk ahead of the long Songkran holiday.However, the index’s decline was limited, as large-cap stocks showed only slight movement despite foreign investor selling.As a result, the SET still managed to post a 0.31% gain from the previous week.

<ul><li>Although the market is likely to revise down EPS estimates following weaker-than- expected 3Q24 earnings, using the KTX implied EPS tool, we find that most sectors (accounting for over 80% of total market capitalization) have partially priced in the negative factors, which limits the downside risk.</li><li>In addition, the SET Index's correction of -0.8% (since the 3Q24 earnings announcements) has kept the market risk premium (MRP) stable at 4.213%, matching the lower bound of the trading buy range at an MRP of 4.21% (-1 S.D.).</li><li>This suggests that the SET is at a level where the risk-reward appears attractive. </li></ul>

Although the market is likely to revise down EPS estimates following weaker-than- expected 3Q24 earnings, using the KTX implied EPS tool, we find that most sectors (accounting for over 80% of total market capitalization) have partially priced in the negative factors, which limits the downside risk.In addition, the SET Index's correction of -0.8% (since the 3Q24 earnings announcements) has kept the market risk premium (MRP) stable at 4.213%, matching the lower bound of the trading buy range at an MRP of 4.21% (-1 S.D.).This suggests that the SET is at a level where the risk-reward appears attractive. 

Special Report: Investment Strategy Post-3Q24 Earnings Reports - NOVEMBER 21, 2024

<ul><li>KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to provide only short-term positive momentum.</li><li>However, the 2025E GDP growth outlook, projected at 2.8% (range: 2.3-3.3%), is seen as a negative guidance compared to the consensus estimate of 3.0%.</li><li>This reflects downside risks from global economic uncertainties, particularly in international trade, which is expected to be negatively impacted by Donald Trump's tariff hike policies. </li></ul>

KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to provide only short-term positive momentum.However, the 2025E GDP growth outlook, projected at 2.8% (range: 2.3-3.3%), is seen as a negative guidance compared to the consensus estimate of 3.0%.This reflects downside risks from global economic uncertainties, particularly in international trade, which is expected to be negatively impacted by Donald Trump's tariff hike policies. 

Economic Update: 3Q24 GDP Growth - Upbeat 3Q24 GDP Growth

Thailand

Bangkok Expressway and Metro PCL is a transportation company. The Company combines toll and metro line networks. Bangkok Expressway and Metro is based in Thailand.

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Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB)

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