Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Oil Fund will be used as the mechanism to cap the diesel price after the Bt5/liter excise tax reduction scheme expires on July 20, 2023, which is not a surprise to the market.</li><li>The financial position of the Oil Fund is at a manageable level.</li><li>The marketing margin being left untouched eases concern and is likely to create positive sentiment for oil retailers, especially PTG, whose exposure to diesel volume sold through oil service stations is higher than peers at 77% (vs. 45-57% for peers). </li></ul>

The Oil Fund will be used as the mechanism to cap the diesel price after the Bt5/liter excise tax reduction scheme expires on July 20, 2023, which is not a surprise to the market.The financial position of the Oil Fund is at a manageable level.The marketing margin being left untouched eases concern and is likely to create positive sentiment for oil retailers, especially PTG, whose exposure to diesel volume sold through oil service stations is higher than peers at 77% (vs. 45-57% for peers). 

Industry Update – Energy (Oil Retailers)

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We reiterate the BUY call with a TP of Bt42.0. We like BCP for its well-diversified business portfolio including E&amp;P, refinery, marketing, power, etc. supporting relatively stable earnings.</li>
<li>3Q22 earnings improved YoY, while softened QoQ The company reported a 3Q22 net profit of Bt2.5bn (+36% YoY, -53% QoQ), looming in line with our expectations. The YoY earnings growth </li>
<li>The refinery segment operating GRM dropped to US$11.2/bbl., leveling off QoQ from an exceptionally high level,due to a decline in the crack spread of all refined products as the demand </li>
</ul>


We reiterate the BUY call with a TP of Bt42.0. We like BCP for its well-diversified business portfolio including E&amp;P, refinery, marketing, power, etc. supporting relatively stable earnings.
3Q22 earnings improved YoY, while softened QoQ The company reported a 3Q22 net profit of Bt2.5bn (+36% YoY, -53% QoQ), looming in line with our expectations. The YoY earnings growth 
The refinery segment operating GRM dropped to US$11.2/bbl., leveling off QoQ from an exceptionally high level,due to a decline in the crack spread of all refined products as the demand 


<ul>
<li>We reiterate the BUY call with a TP of Bt42.0. We like BCP for its well diversified business portfolio including E&amp;P, refinery, marketing, power etc. supporting relatively stable earnings.</li>
<li>Exceptional GRM spike drove 2Q22 profit Excluding the stock gain of Bt3.9bn and other onetime items the recurring EBITDA stood at Bt8.7bn (+190% YoY, +14% QoQ).</li>
<li>The refinery margin (GRM) spiked to US$24.42/bbl.,compared to US$6.8/bbl.in 1Q22 and US$4.2/bbl. in 2Q21, on the back of rise in all product spreads due to supply tightness from Ukraine-Russia conflict.</li>
</ul>


We reiterate the BUY call with a TP of Bt42.0. We like BCP for its well diversified business portfolio including E&amp;P, refinery, marketing, power etc. supporting relatively stable earnings.
Exceptional GRM spike drove 2Q22 profit Excluding the stock gain of Bt3.9bn and other onetime items the recurring EBITDA stood at Bt8.7bn (+190% YoY, +14% QoQ).
The refinery margin (GRM) spiked to US$24.42/bbl.,compared to US$6.8/bbl.in 1Q22 and US$4.2/bbl. in 2Q21, on the back of rise in all product spreads due to supply tightness from Ukraine-Russia conflict.


BCP : Attractive Dividend Yield and Cheap Valuation

<ul>
<li>We reiterate the BUY call on BCP with a TP of Bt42.0. The 2Q22 net profit is expected to surge +198% YoY and +21% QoQ to Bt5.3bn. The significant YoY </li>
<li>Solid refinery performance to drive 2Q22 profit We expect BCP to post a 2Q22 net profit of Bt5.3bn (+198% YoY, +21% QoQ), a new quarterly high. </li>
<li>The refinery margin (GRM) should spike to US$24/bbl (+471% YoY, +251% QoQ), backed by the strong rise in product spreads due to demand surge and Ukraine-Russia war tensions. </li>
</ul>


We reiterate the BUY call on BCP with a TP of Bt42.0. The 2Q22 net profit is expected to surge +198% YoY and +21% QoQ to Bt5.3bn. The significant YoY 
Solid refinery performance to drive 2Q22 profit We expect BCP to post a 2Q22 net profit of Bt5.3bn (+198% YoY, +21% QoQ), a new quarterly high. 
The refinery margin (GRM) should spike to US$24/bbl (+471% YoY, +251% QoQ), backed by the strong rise in product spreads due to demand surge and Ukraine-Russia war tensions. 


BCP : Solid Refinery Performance to Drive 2Q22 Profit

<ul>
<li>The analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on a target price of Bt42.0, derived using SOTP methodology, implying 1.1xPBV’23E.</li>
<li>Expect the 2Q22 recurring profit to improve both YoY and QoQ on the back of solid refinery and E&amp;P business operations.</li>
<li>The bright refinery performance should continue to excel in 2Q22 underpinned by higher GRM and full refinery utilization.</li>
</ul>


The analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on a target price of Bt42.0, derived using SOTP methodology, implying 1.1xPBV’23E.
Expect the 2Q22 recurring profit to improve both YoY and QoQ on the back of solid refinery and E&amp;P business operations.
The bright refinery performance should continue to excel in 2Q22 underpinned by higher GRM and full refinery utilization.


BCP: Solid Refinery, E&P Performance to Drive 2Q22-2022 Earnings

Thailand

Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited operates as an energy company. The Company offers petroleum exploration and production, biomass, crude oil, and solar energy. Bangchak markets its products in Thailand.

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Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)

Industry Update – Energy (Oil Retailers)

The Oil Fund will be used as the mechanism to cap the diesel price after the Bt5/liter excise tax reduction scheme expires on July 20, 2023, which...

Krungthai XSpring

BCP : Bring 4Q22 Outlook

We reiterate the BUY call with a TP of Bt42.0. We like BCP for its well-diversified business portfolio including E&P, refinery, marketing, power,...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCP : Attractive Dividend Yield and Cheap Valuation

We reiterate the BUY call with a TP of Bt42.0. We like BCP for its well diversified business portfolio including E&P, refinery, marketing, power...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCP : Solid Refinery Performance to Drive 2Q22 Profit

We reiterate the BUY call on BCP with a TP of Bt42.0. The 2Q22 net profit is expected to surge +198% YoY and +21% QoQ to Bt5.3bn. The significant...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCP: Solid Refinery, E&P Performance to Drive 2Q22-2022 Earnings

The analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on a target price of Bt42.0, derived using SOTP methodology,...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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