Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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The analysts involved in the production of this document hereby certify that the views expressed in this document accurately reflect their personal views about the securities mentioned herein. The analysts point out that they may buy, sell or already have taken positions in the securities, and related financial instruments, mentioned in this document

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21296" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21296:1">Banco Santander Sa (SAN SM)</a> has announced that it will make an all share, voluntary offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27672" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27672:1">Banco Santander Mexico-B (BSMXB MM)</a> minorities</li>
<li>The offer values the c 25% free float in SanMex at €2.56bn, which implies, at current exchange rates, a premium of 14%</li>
<li>Santander management's rationale for the offer "reflects its confidence in Mexico and its Mexican subsidiary as well as their long term growth potential" and it increases"its capacity to generate capital organically"; this latter point is helpful, given Santander parent's tight core capital ratio</li>
<li>It is also opportunistic by Santander management, in our view; the maximum up-take of the offer implies 3.5% dilution at the parent, and SanMex is cheap on PBV compared to its quoted LatAm sister banks and versus its own history</li>
<li> We see the offer as, at best, fair, but certainly not generous. Still, this offer is positive for investor sentiment towards the Mexican banks and Santander Mexico share price in the very near term; it is also a small positive for Santander parent, in our view</li>
</ul>



Banco Santander Sa (SAN SM) has announced that it will make an all share, voluntary offer for Banco Santander Mexico-B (BSMXB MM) minorities
The offer values the c 25% free float in SanMex at €2.56bn, which implies, at current exchange rates, a premium of 14%
Santander management's rationale for the offer "reflects its confidence in Mexico and its Mexican subsidiary as well as their long term growth potential" and it increases"its capacity to generate capital organically"; this latter point is helpful, given Santander parent's tight core capital ratio
It is also opportunistic by Santander management, in our view; the maximum up-take of the offer implies 3.5% dilution at the parent, and SanMex is cheap on PBV compared to its quoted LatAm sister banks and versus its own history
 We see the offer as, at best, fair, but certainly not generous. Still, this offer is positive for investor sentiment towards the Mexican banks and Santander Mexico share price in the very near term; it is also a small positive for Santander parent, in our view


Santander's All-Share Offer for SanMex; Scooping up Minorities for a Modest Premium

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

We analyse the holdings of the world's largest banks by the 255 global equity funds in our analysis. For each region (America/EMEA/Asia), we have selected the 6 largest banks by total assets, as defined by the S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence Report, 2018.We find that overall, holdings in these banks are on the decline, and in some cases, investor flight has been acute.  Only 2 of the 18 banks are held overweight by global investors, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/279" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:279:1">Citigroup Inc (C US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/525" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:525:1">Bnp Paribas (BNP FP)</a> seeing the biggest exodus through 2018.

We analyse the holdings of the world's largest banks by the 255 global equity funds in our analysis. For each region (America/EMEA/Asia), we have selected the 6 largest banks by total assets, as defined by the S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence Report, 2018.We find that overall, holdings in these banks are on the decline, and in some cases, investor flight has been acute.  Only 2 of the 18 banks are held overweight by global investors, with Citigroup Inc (C US) and Bnp Paribas (BNP FP) seeing the biggest exodus through 2018.

Big Banks - A Crisis of Investor Confidence

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional clients an opportunity to engage with the management of 49 public companies we think have structural competitive advantages, or economic moats, as well as two private companies worth watching. This report distills the highlights from company presentations. A roster of all companies that participated in the conference, including those that held one-on-one meetings with investors, can be found on Page 2 of the attached document.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/069/790/original/img%201.JPG?1542165661" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="69790"></figure>

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional clients an opportunity to engage with the management of 49 public companies we think have structural competitive advantages, or economic moats, as well as two private companies worth watching. This report distills the highlights from company presentations. A roster of all companies that participated in the conference, including those that held one-on-one meetings with investors, can be found on Page 2 of the attached document.

Morningstar Management Behind the Moat 2018: Conference Highlights

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

This report highlights actionable themes across the EM universe, including: bullish inflections in the Russian and Thai markets, and a pullback opportunity in India's SENSEX.  We also highlight actionable setups in MSCI EM Energy and Materials sectors and within Taiwanese Financials/Banks.  Finally we uncover a number of attractive bottoms-up opportunities, sorted by sector and market-cap.

This report highlights actionable themes across the EM universe, including: bullish inflections in the Russian and Thai markets, and a pullback opportunity in India's SENSEX.  We also highlight actionable setups in MSCI EM Energy and Materials sectors and within Taiwanese Financials/Banks.  Finally we uncover a number of attractive bottoms-up opportunities, sorted by sector and market-cap.

EM Strategy: Russia and Thailand Bullishly Inflecting; Pullback Opportunity in India

Spain

Banco Santander SA attracts deposits and offers retail, commercial and private banking, and asset management services. The Bank offers consumer credit, mortgage loans, lease financing, factoring, mutual funds, pension funds, insurance, commercial credit, investment banking services, structured finance, and advice on mergers and acquisitions.

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Banco Santander Sa (SAN SM)

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements...

Vermilion Research

Big Banks - A Crisis of Investor Confidence

We analyse the holdings of the world's largest banks by the 255 global equity funds in our analysis. For each region (America/EMEA/Asia), we have...

Steven Holden

Morningstar Management Behind the Moat 2018: Conference Highlights

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional...

Morningstar, Inc.

EM Strategy: Russia and Thailand Bullishly Inflecting; Pullback Opportunity in India

This report highlights actionable themes across the EM universe, including: bullish inflections in the Russian and Thai markets, and a pullback...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Santander's All-Share Offer for SanMex; Scooping up Minorities for a Modest Premium

Banco Santander Sa (SAN SM) has announced that it will make an all share, voluntary offer for Banco Santander Mexico-B (BSMXB MM) minorities The...

Boost Research

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements...

Vermilion Research

Big Banks - A Crisis of Investor Confidence

We analyse the holdings of the world's largest banks by the 255 global equity funds in our analysis. For each region (America/EMEA/Asia), we have...

Steven Holden

Morningstar Management Behind the Moat 2018: Conference Highlights

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional...

Morningstar, Inc.

EM Strategy: Russia and Thailand Bullishly Inflecting; Pullback Opportunity in India

This report highlights actionable themes across the EM universe, including: bullish inflections in the Russian and Thai markets, and a pullback...

Vermilion Research