Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BAF reported strong Q4FY22 earnings led by 1) healthy AUM growth and 2) decline in provisioning. YoY, the NIM growth was similar to the AUM growth suggesting no margin compression.</li>
<li>However, QoQ, BAF witnessed NIM compression, partly driven by interest reversal from a corporate account that became NPA. Overall, the management is confident of maintaining NIMs at current level. </li>
<li>The pace of core AUM growth also declined QoQ. However, this could be due to seasonality and despite declining pace, Q4FY22 core AUM growth was still healthy at 5%+.</li>
</ul>


BAF reported strong Q4FY22 earnings led by 1) healthy AUM growth and 2) decline in provisioning. YoY, the NIM growth was similar to the AUM growth suggesting no margin compression.
However, QoQ, BAF witnessed NIM compression, partly driven by interest reversal from a corporate account that became NPA. Overall, the management is confident of maintaining NIMs at current level. 
The pace of core AUM growth also declined QoQ. However, this could be due to seasonality and despite declining pace, Q4FY22 core AUM growth was still healthy at 5%+.


Bajaj Finance (BAF): Back to Pre-COVID Like Stellar Performance!

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Inclusions are FSN E-Commerce Ventures (NYKAA), Mindtree Ltd (MTCL), Paytm (PAYTM), SRF Ltd (SRF) and Zomato (ZOMATO), while Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) moves lower from the NIFTY Index.</li>
<li>Deletions are Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP), Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL), Indraprastha Gas (IGL), Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP) and Yes Bank (YES), while Apollo Hospitals (APHS) moves up to the NIFTY Index.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover on the NIFTY NEXT50 Index is 10.24%, the one-way trade is INR 8,486bn and there is over 1 day of ADV to trade on a few stocks.</li>
</ul>


Inclusions are FSN E-Commerce Ventures (NYKAA), Mindtree Ltd (MTCL), Paytm (PAYTM), SRF Ltd (SRF) and Zomato (ZOMATO), while Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) moves lower from the NIFTY Index.
Deletions are Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP), Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL), Indraprastha Gas (IGL), Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP) and Yes Bank (YES), while Apollo Hospitals (APHS) moves up to the NIFTY Index.
Estimated one-way turnover on the NIFTY NEXT50 Index is 10.24%, the one-way trade is INR 8,486bn and there is over 1 day of ADV to trade on a few stocks.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Zomato, PayTM, Nykaa Among the Adds

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Our outlook for ex-U.S. markets (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index, local currency) remains neutral - bordering on cautious. Our concern stems from the recent pattern of lower highs and continued underperformance relative to MSCI ACWI - remain underweight.  Two bright spots: we are seeing bullish inflections in Japan (TOPIX and Nikkei 225), and India's SENSEX.  We unpack these, and also highlight actionable set ups in our global Communications, and Transportation Sectors.

Our outlook for ex-U.S. markets (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index, local currency) remains neutral - bordering on cautious. Our concern stems from the recent pattern of lower highs and continued underperformance relative to MSCI ACWI - remain underweight.  Two bright spots: we are seeing bullish inflections in Japan (TOPIX and Nikkei 225), and India's SENSEX.  We unpack these, and also highlight actionable set ups in our global Communications, and Transportation Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Japan and India

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

India

Rural Electrification Corporation Limited engages in the financing and promotion of transmission, distribution and generation projects in India. The Company provides funding to clients to assist them in formulating and implementing various types of power project-related schemes.

Aditya Birla Capital Limited (ABCL) provides financial services. The Company offers life and health insurance, private equity, corporate lending, structured finance, asset and wealth management, currency and commodity brokerage, online personal finance management, housing finance, pension funds, and other financial services. ABCL serves customers in India.

L&T Finance Holdings Limited is a financial holding company. The Company offers a diverse range of financial products and services across the corporate, retail, and infrastructure finance sectors, as well as fund products and investment services.

Power Finance Corporation funds power projects in India.  The Company serves state power utilities, central power sector utilities, power departments, private power sector utilities, joint sector power utilities, power equipment manufacturers, and municipal power utilities.

Piramal Enterprises Limited provides diversified commercial services. The Company offers pharmaceutical production and distribution, real estate, healthcare insights and analysis, and financial services. Piramal Enterprises serves customers globally.

IDFC Limited offers infrastructure project financing services.  The Company primarily finances energy, telecommunications, and transportation projects.

IFCI Limited provides medium and long-term credits to industrial concerns in India.

Aavas Financiers Limited provides consumer finance services. The Company offers home, land purchase, construction, home improvement, balance transfer, and business loans. Aavas Financiers serves customers in India.

Shriram Finance Limited provides consumer finance services. The Company offers automobile, commercial vehicle, business, and gold loan services. Shriram Finance serves customers in India.

Tourism Finance Corporation of India Limited specializes in tourism related business. The Group works in association with the Government of India, in order to create and develop projects to help with accommodations and hospitality services, car rental services, ferries for water transport, highway facilities and training institutes for hotel personnel.

Mitsubishi HC Capital Inc. provides customer finance services. The Company leases machinery and equipment, aircraft and ships, office buildings, and more. Mitsubishi HC Capital serves clients across worldwide.

Meritz Financial Group Inc is a holding company of Meritz Securities, Meritz Asset Management, Meritz Financial Information Service and et cetera. The Company manages and controls its financial subsidiaries.

Industrivarden AB is an investment company.  The Company's holdings consists of a portfolio of listed Nordic industrial companies.

L E Lundbergforetagen AB is a real estate and investment company.  The Company owns,  develops, rents out, and manages commercial and residential properties located in central Sweden.  Lundbergs is also a long term investor in mostly publicly traded Swedish companies.  The Company takes an active ownership role in the companies.  Moreover Lundbergs is engaged in securities trading.

Equitable Holdings, Inc. is an independent U.S.-based financial services company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides advice, protection, retirement strategies, and investment-management and research.

Chailease Holding Co Ltd provides financing services such as leasing, installment sale, import/export factoring and direct financing.

Banca Mediolanum S.p.A. provides banking services. The Bank, through its component companies, provides banking, financial, insurance, retirement, and real estate products and services. Banca Mediolanum operates in Italy.

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert S.A. is a holding company with interests in energy, media, and utility companies.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces petroleum, manufactures chemicals, operates gasoline filling stations, owns and operates television and radio stations, supplies water, generates and transports electricity, transports natural gas, and offers waste management services.

Sofina SA is a holding company that invests in energy, finance, insurance, real estate, distribution, services companies and telecommunications.  The Companies are of the European Union nations, the United States, Canada and the Far East.

Element Fleet Management Corp. operates as a fleet management company. The Company offers car and light duty vehicles, material handling equipment, medium, and heavy duty trucks. Element Fleet Management serves customers in the United States and Canada.

Bajaj Holdings and Investment Ltd. is an investment company. The Company investments include strategic investments and investments in government securities, bonds, debentures and mutual funds.

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Bajaj Holdings and Investment (BJHI IN)

Bajaj Finance (BAF): Back to Pre-COVID Like Stellar Performance!

BAF reported stellar Q4FY22 earnings led by growing AUM and declining provisions. As per our estimates, an investment in BAF's stock presents an...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Zomato, PayTM, Nykaa Among the Adds

There are 6 changes for the NIFTY NEXT50 Index to be implemented on 30 March. A change in the methodology will see PayTM and Nykaa added to the...

Brian Freitas

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Japan and India

Our outlook for ex-U.S. markets (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index, local currency) remains neutral - bordering on cautious. Our concern stems from the...

Vermilion Research

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the...

Hemindra Hazari

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this...

Asia Advisors

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