Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Severe liquidity crunch affects NBFC lending with several NBFCs, including the housing finance companies reporting a slowdown in lending. NBFCs had become an important part of the credit market extending credit to pockets not explored by banks like the SMEs, MSME and self-employed. With a 44% share of the credit market (up from 21% in 2014), NBFCs are an important component of the financial system today and a slowdown in NBFCS will impact sectors like housing, autos and other discretionary consumption products. While the NBFCs are looking to some help from the RBI (direct liquidity support) as it did provide in 2013 but given the rapid growth of NBFC credit (25%+ in FY18), the RBI may just be welcoming this moderation

Severe liquidity crunch affects NBFC lending with several NBFCs, including the housing finance companies reporting a slowdown in lending. NBFCs had become an important part of the credit market extending credit to pockets not explored by banks like the SMEs, MSME and self-employed. With a 44% share of the credit market (up from 21% in 2014), NBFCs are an important component of the financial system today and a slowdown in NBFCS will impact sectors like housing, autos and other discretionary consumption products. While the NBFCs are looking to some help from the RBI (direct liquidity support) as it did provide in 2013 but given the rapid growth of NBFC credit (25%+ in FY18), the RBI may just be welcoming this moderation 

Gold Rush for NBFCs May End as Worst Liquidity Crisis in a Decade Bites; Banks Review Exposure Norms

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting opportunities within India's SENSEX, global energy and materials sectors, and Asian banks.

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting opportunities within India's SENSEX, global energy and materials sectors, and Asian banks.

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM exposure and be selective.  India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is our top country-specific EM index recommendation, overweight India. We also provide an update on Brazil’s Bovespa, which has surged over the last month following a steep selloff. We are skeptical that the index will be able to continue its unabated advance.  Today’s report also includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM exposure and be selective.  India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is our top country-specific EM index recommendation, overweight India. We also provide an update on Brazil’s Bovespa, which has surged over the last month following a steep selloff. We are skeptical that the index will be able to continue its unabated advance.  Today’s report also includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Approaching Resistance; India Breaking Out to New Highs -- Add Exposure

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

THE MAIN IDEA (Relative Value Approach in USD Terms) Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms • NIKKEI/MXAP: Long term outperformance in progress. • HSI/MXAP: Long term outperformance in progress/still expected. • HSCEI/MXAP: Bullish weekly indicators advocate for long term HSCEI outperformance against MXAP. • ASX/MXAP: ASX outperformance challenged but notinvalidated (testing key support at 26.00/25.50). • KOSPI/MXAP: Long term outperformance still expected. • Nifty/MXAP: Mixed elements. Neutral for now. • TWSE/MXAP: Neutral at the moment, watching closely key level at (2.22 on ratio TWSE/MXAP) to surpass to confirm TWSE long-term outperformance vs MXAP Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms • Upgrade Japan and Korea from “Hold” to “Increase Exposure”as both RV are bouncing off support. • The ratios HK (HSI) and China (HSCEI) vs MXAP moved sideways, we temporarily lower our rating to “Hold”. • Remain overweight for Australia while keeping "Hold" rating for Taiwan and India.

THE MAIN IDEA (Relative Value Approach in USD Terms) Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms • NIKKEI/MXAP: Long term outperformance in progress. • HSI/MXAP: Long term outperformance in progress/still expected. • HSCEI/MXAP: Bullish weekly indicators advocate for long term HSCEI outperformance against MXAP. • ASX/MXAP: ASX outperformance challenged but notinvalidated (testing key support at 26.00/25.50). • KOSPI/MXAP: Long term outperformance still expected. • Nifty/MXAP: Mixed elements. Neutral for now. • TWSE/MXAP: Neutral at the moment, watching closely key level at (2.22 on ratio TWSE/MXAP) to surpass to confirm TWSE long-term outperformance vs MXAP Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms • Upgrade Japan and Korea from “Hold” to “Increase Exposure”as both RV are bouncing off support. • The ratios HK (HSI) and China (HSCEI) vs MXAP moved sideways, we temporarily lower our rating to “Hold”. • Remain overweight for Australia while keeping "Hold" rating for Taiwan and India.

BBSP Equity Asia Weekly Research 13 June 2018

Value investor- India mid & small caps

Bhaskar Chakraborty

Consumer finance and durable makers allude to weak demand in 4QFY18In its recent meeting with analysts, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8950" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8950:1">Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN)</a> (BAF)- India’s largest consumer finance non-bank finance company (NBFC) mentioned that January and February have seen rather weak demand for consumer durables across the country. Consumer durable demand was flat YoY over the 2 months with some recovery seen in March, per BAF’s estimates. This is despite a favorable base year wherein demand was impacted in January and…

Consumer finance and durable makers allude to weak demand in 4QFY18In its recent meeting with analysts, Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) (BAF)- India’s largest consumer finance non-bank finance company (NBFC) mentioned that January and February have seen rather weak demand for consumer durables across the country. Consumer durable demand was flat YoY over the 2 months with some recovery seen in March, per BAF’s estimates. This is despite a favorable base year wherein demand was impacted in January and…

India Consumer Discretionary: On the Ground Signals of a Growth Slowdown

India

Bajaj Finance Limited is a financial services company that operates branches in India, which provide an assortment of financial services.

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Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN)

Gold Rush for NBFCs May End as Worst Liquidity Crisis in a Decade Bites; Banks Review Exposure Norms

Severe liquidity crunch affects NBFC lending with several NBFCs, including the housing finance companies reporting a slowdown in lending. NBFCs had...

Asia Advisors

EM Strategy: Remain Overweight India

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Approaching Resistance; India Breaking Out to New Highs -- Add Exposure

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM...

Vermilion Research

BBSP Equity Asia Weekly Research 13 June 2018

THE MAIN IDEA(Relative Value Approach in USD Terms)Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vsMXAP in USD terms• NIKKEI/MXAP: Long term...

BBSP Asia

India Consumer Discretionary: On the Ground Signals of a Growth Slowdown

Consumer finance and durable makers allude to weak demand in 4QFY18In its recent meeting with analysts, Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) (BAF)- India’s...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

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