Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We add value play Bank of Baroda to the peer group, and to our buy list; we also add liquidity and funding screens and a PEG ratio valuation metric</li>
<li>We keep HDFC Bank as our higher quality bank, with its strong balance sheet, especially on NPA coverage, and further positive momentum from the upcoming HDFC merger</li>
<li>We remain negative on State Bank of India, and we are also cautious on ICICI Bank; Axis bank remains a name to watch, although valuations are far from compelling</li>
</ul>


We add value play Bank of Baroda to the peer group, and to our buy list; we also add liquidity and funding screens and a PEG ratio valuation metric
We keep HDFC Bank as our higher quality bank, with its strong balance sheet, especially on NPA coverage, and further positive momentum from the upcoming HDFC merger
We remain negative on State Bank of India, and we are also cautious on ICICI Bank; Axis bank remains a name to watch, although valuations are far from compelling


Indian Banks Screener: Adding Value Pick Bank of Baroda, Stick with HDFC Bank for Quality

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Media reports indicate that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> is expected to complete in 4-5 weeks.</li>
<li>There will be inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index </a>and capping changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index</a> apart from changes to global indices.</li>
<li>While the impact on the merging entities is not big, there will be fairly large flows on some stocks that are index inclusions or affected by capping changes.</li>
</ul>


Media reports indicate that the HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) merger with HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) is expected to complete in 4-5 weeks.
There will be inclusions to the NIFTY Index, Nifty Next 50 Index and S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index and capping changes to the Nifty Bank Index apart from changes to global indices.
While the impact on the merging entities is not big, there will be fairly large flows on some stocks that are index inclusions or affected by capping changes.


HDFC/​​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Five Star Business Finance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/five-star-business-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35238:1" rel="noopener">Five Star Business Finance (FIVESTAR IN)</a> raised around US$190m in its India IPO in Nov 2022.</li>
<li>Five-Star Business is a non-banking financial company (NBFC-ND-SI) that provides secured business loans to micro-entrepreneurs and self-employed individuals.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Five Star Business Finance (FIVESTAR IN) raised around US$190m in its India IPO in Nov 2022.
Five-Star Business is a non-banking financial company (NBFC-ND-SI) that provides secured business loans to micro-entrepreneurs and self-employed individuals.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Five Star IPO Lock-Up - Over US$1.3bn Lockup Release with Less than US$1m ADV

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> merger will result in capping and funding changes on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> constituents.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of around 8.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m (US$266m) at the time of merger implementation.</li>
<li>The impact in terms of ADV is less than 1x on all stocks, but the impact in terms of delivery volume is higher than 1x on a few stocks.</li>
</ul>


The HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) / HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) merger will result in capping and funding changes on the Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) constituents.
We estimate one-way turnover of around 8.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m (US$266m) at the time of merger implementation.
The impact in terms of ADV is less than 1x on all stocks, but the impact in terms of delivery volume is higher than 1x on a few stocks.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bikaji-foods-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36502:1" rel="noopener">Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN)</a>, an ethnic snacks company, raised approximately US$107m in its India IPO. The stock was listed on 16th Nov 2022, its six-month lockup will expire soon.</li>
<li>Bikaji was the third largest ethnic snacks company in India and the second fastest growing company in the Indian organized snacks market in FY22, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN), an ethnic snacks company, raised approximately US$107m in its India IPO. The stock was listed on 16th Nov 2022, its six-month lockup will expire soon.
Bikaji was the third largest ethnic snacks company in India and the second fastest growing company in the Indian organized snacks market in FY22, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Bikaji Foods IPO Lock-Up - Small Expiry with a Chance to Lift the Overhang

India

Axis Bank Limited provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, investment management, merchant banking, treasury and NRI services, cash and credit management services, and ATM facilities.

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Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)

Indian Banks Screener: Adding Value Pick Bank of Baroda, Stick with HDFC Bank for Quality

We add liquidity and funding screens to the Indian banks adding value play Bank of Baroda to the group and to our buy list, with HDFC Bank; we stay...

Victor Galliano

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications

Media reports indicate that the HDFC Bank merger with HDFC Ltd is expected to complete in 4-5 weeks. There will be ad hoc inclusions to the...

Brian Freitas

Five Star IPO Lock-Up - Over US$1.3bn Lockup Release with Less than US$1m ADV

Five Star Business Finance (FIVESTAR IN) raised around US$190m in its India IPO in Nov 2022. Its US$1.3bn worth IPO lockup expiry is coming up soon.

Sumeet Singh

HDFC/HDFCB Merger: Impact on Bank Nifty

The HDFC/HDFCB merger will result in a one-way turnover of around 8.4% for the Nifty Bank Index resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m...

Brian Freitas

Bikaji Foods IPO Lock-Up - Small Expiry with a Chance to Lift the Overhang

Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN), an ethnic snacks company, raised approximately US$107m in its India IPO. The stock was listed on 16th Nov 2022, its six...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indian Banks Screener: Adding Value Pick Bank of Baroda, Stick with HDFC Bank for Quality

We add liquidity and funding screens to the Indian banks adding value play Bank of Baroda to the group and to our buy list, with HDFC Bank; we stay...

Victor Galliano

HDFC/​​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications

Media reports indicate that the HDFC Bank merger with HDFC Ltd is expected to complete in 4-5 weeks. There will be ad hoc inclusions to the...

Brian Freitas

Five Star IPO Lock-Up - Over US$1.3bn Lockup Release with Less than US$1m ADV

Five Star Business Finance (FIVESTAR IN) raised around US$190m in its India IPO in Nov 2022. Its US$1.3bn worth IPO lockup expiry is coming up soon.

Sumeet Singh

HDFC/HDFCB Merger: Impact on Bank Nifty

The HDFC/HDFCB merger will result in a one-way turnover of around 8.4% for the Nifty Bank Index resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m...

Brian Freitas

Bikaji Foods IPO Lock-Up - Small Expiry with a Chance to Lift the Overhang

Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN), an ethnic snacks company, raised approximately US$107m in its India IPO. The stock was listed on 16th Nov 2022, its six...

Sumeet Singh

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications