Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.</li>
<li>We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.</li>
<li>Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications</li>
</ul>


We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.
We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.
Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications


MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Foreign investors sold ~5.7m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> from July to September. That selling has pushed foreign room above the key 15% threshold.</li>
<li>With foreign room crossing 15%, passive trackers will need to buy a chunk of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> stock at the end of November.</li>
<li>There will be positioning on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> though it appears some of that was taken off in the last couple of days.</li>
</ul>


Foreign investors sold ~5.7m shares of Indusind Bank (IIB IN) from July to September. That selling has pushed foreign room above the key 15% threshold.
With foreign room crossing 15%, passive trackers will need to buy a chunk of Indusind Bank (IIB IN) stock at the end of November.
There will be positioning on Indusind Bank (IIB IN) though it appears some of that was taken off in the last couple of days.


IndusInd Bank (IIB IN): Passive Buying Coming Up as Foreign Room Crosses Key Threshold

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> released its first results since its amalgamation. This can make comparatives difficult where historicals are not adjusted, except for some QoQ items. </li>
<li>We use Dupont Analysis to better understand how the newly amalgamated bank looks now compared with the past, which generally shows a more profitable bank at the core.  </li>
<li>Credit costs, tax expenses are also positives, with the former improving 27bps YoY and the latter improving 23bps YoY. Investment income is a major positive driver in Sep 23 quarter.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) released its first results since its amalgamation. This can make comparatives difficult where historicals are not adjusted, except for some QoQ items. 
We use Dupont Analysis to better understand how the newly amalgamated bank looks now compared with the past, which generally shows a more profitable bank at the core.  
Credit costs, tax expenses are also positives, with the former improving 27bps YoY and the latter improving 23bps YoY. Investment income is a major positive driver in Sep 23 quarter.


HDFC Bank - 1st Results After Amalgamation | Dupont Analysis For Comparatives | Credit Cost Decline

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Asirvad Micro Finance Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asirvad-micro-finance-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40211:1" rel="noopener">Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (1053198D IN)</a> is looking to raise around US$183m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Financial, Kotak, Nomura, SBI Caps.</li>
<li>Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (Asirvad) is a non-banking finance company (NBFC), and a microfinance institution (MFI) offering small loans to low-income women in India.</li>
<li>As per the CRISIL report, Asirvad was the largest MFI in India in terms of geographical coverage and third largest MFI in India in terms of AUM, in FY23.</li>
</ul>



Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (1053198D IN) is looking to raise around US$183m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Financial, Kotak, Nomura, SBI Caps.
Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (Asirvad) is a non-banking finance company (NBFC), and a microfinance institution (MFI) offering small loans to low-income women in India.
As per the CRISIL report, Asirvad was the largest MFI in India in terms of geographical coverage and third largest MFI in India in terms of AUM, in FY23.


Asirvad Micro Finance Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Life Insurance  of India / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LICI has significant 62% market share of new business premiums with 92% coverage of all districts in the country, compared with 72% for all of the private sector combined. </li>
<li>Long track record of operations since 1956 and strong growth, with recent years seeing exceptional strength in net profit, and with ROE reaching 148%. </li>
<li>Well maintained SG&amp;A costs with revenue growth exceeding policy benefits growth, with strong investment returns, especially in FY23. 1Q24 also shows continued operational strength, in a hugely under-penetrated market. </li>
</ul>


LICI has significant 62% market share of new business premiums with 92% coverage of all districts in the country, compared with 72% for all of the private sector combined. 
Long track record of operations since 1956 and strong growth, with recent years seeing exceptional strength in net profit, and with ROE reaching 148%. 
Well maintained SG&amp;A costs with revenue growth exceeding policy benefits growth, with strong investment returns, especially in FY23. 1Q24 also shows continued operational strength, in a hugely under-penetrated market. 


LICI - 62% Mkt Share, Covers 92% of India, 148% ROE, Under-Penetrated, Many Operational Strengths

India

Axis Bank Limited provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, investment management, merchant banking, treasury and NRI services, cash and credit management services, and ATM facilities.

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Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

IndusInd Bank (IIB IN): Passive Buying Coming Up as Foreign Room Crosses Key Threshold

Foreign investors sold IndusInd Bank from July to Sep. With foreign room crossing 15%, passive trackers will need to buy IndusInd in Nov. There is...

Brian Freitas

HDFC Bank - 1st Results After Amalgamation | Dupont Analysis For Comparatives | Credit Cost Decline

Fist earnings results since amalgamation and they are strong. Dupont Analysis may be best way to view how bank is changing, where historicals are...

Daniel Tabbush

Asirvad Micro Finance Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (1053198D IN) is looking to raise around US$183m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Financial,...

Clarence Chu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

IndusInd Bank (IIB IN): Passive Buying Coming Up as Foreign Room Crosses Key Threshold

Foreign investors sold IndusInd Bank from July to Sep. With foreign room crossing 15%, passive trackers will need to buy IndusInd in Nov. There is...

Brian Freitas

HDFC Bank - 1st Results After Amalgamation | Dupont Analysis For Comparatives | Credit Cost Decline

Fist earnings results since amalgamation and they are strong. Dupont Analysis may be best way to view how bank is changing, where historicals are...

Daniel Tabbush

Asirvad Micro Finance Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (1053198D IN) is looking to raise around US$183m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Financial,...

Clarence Chu

LICI - 62% Mkt Share, Covers 92% of India, 148% ROE, Under-Penetrated, Many Operational Strengths

LICI has seen strong growth in profit, with costs well contained, and policy revenue and investment income well exceeding policy benefits. High mkt...

Daniel Tabbush