Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid, consistent and detailed city-level data on property markets in China is largely limited to major cities but comparing some key metrics at a national level with those for Tier-1 and Tier-2 can give us a sense of respective share of the market for different categories of cities. While the four Tier-1 cities have a disproportionally higher share of new home…

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid, consistent and detailed city-level data on property markets in China is largely limited to major cities but comparing some key metrics at a national level with those for Tier-1 and Tier-2 can give us a sense of respective share of the market for different categories of cities. While the four Tier-1 cities have a disproportionally higher share of new home…

China Property By Tier - Where Is The Action?

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

<h2>Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on Scrapping</h2>More containership capacity is being demolished than ever before, including old-design ships made redundant by the new Panama Canal.Drewry believes that, for the first time, 450,000teu of containership capacity is expected to be scrapped in just one year, as the containership sector recognises that there are far too many ships chasing too little cargo. Based on an average size of 3,000teu for ships which are being scrapped,…

Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on ScrappingMore containership capacity is being demolished than ever before, including old-design ships made redundant by the new Panama Canal.Drewry believes that, for the first time, 450,000teu of containership capacity is expected to be scrapped in just one year, as the containership sector recognises that there are far too many ships chasing too little cargo. Based on an average size of 3,000teu for ships which are being scrapped,…

Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on Scrapping

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Due to its enormous importance to the Chinese economy and the drivers of the 2008 global financial crisis, many analysts focus on the real estate sector as a potential harbinger of the overall economy.  Like many other sectors of the Chinese economy real estate is heavily government regulated by the state acting as a major source of revenue for local governments which thrive from land sales to builders. Real estate supports local government finances and large number of upstream industries like…

Due to its enormous importance to the Chinese economy and the drivers of the 2008 global financial crisis, many analysts focus on the real estate sector as a potential harbinger of the overall economy.  Like many other sectors of the Chinese economy real estate is heavily government regulated by the state acting as a major source of revenue for local governments which thrive from land sales to builders. Real estate supports local government finances and large number of upstream industries like…

Chinese Real Estate Pricing in 21% Price Increase

In May 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on underlying data from SouFun-CREIS, increased by 40%, compared to 16.9% in April. Overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and Tier-2) increased by 6% in May YTD y/y, compared to 6.8% in April, a more muted growth compared to the activity by major developers. Acquisitions of pure commercial land grew by 136%…

In May 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on underlying data from SouFun-CREIS, increased by 40%, compared to 16.9% in April. Overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and Tier-2) increased by 6% in May YTD y/y, compared to 6.8% in April, a more muted growth compared to the activity by major developers. Acquisitions of pure commercial land grew by 136%…

China: Slower Land Sales Growth In 40 Major Cities But Acquisitions By Major Developers Rise 40%

Macroeconomics

Outlook on China’s PMI  The month of June furthered the case that the Chinese economy has plateaued and potentially started declining again. With last month’s PMI at 50.1, there was reason to believe we would see real economy expansion but this failed to materialize. Throughout June, most industries showed a downward trend in production output generating a PMI of 50.0, .1 lower than the last month. The slowdown in output and manager expectation does not provide a positive outlook on a leverage…

Outlook on China’s PMI  The month of June furthered the case that the Chinese economy has plateaued and potentially started declining again. With last month’s PMI at 50.1, there was reason to believe we would see real economy expansion but this failed to materialize. Throughout June, most industries showed a downward trend in production output generating a PMI of 50.0, .1 lower than the last month. The slowdown in output and manager expectation does not provide a positive outlook on a leverage…

China

AVIC Aircraft Co., Ltd. manufactures large and mid size aircraft components and aluminum materials. The Company primarily contracts and produces vertical stable board, horizontal stable board, front inspection door for Boeing 737, and components for Boeing 747 and ATR-42. AVIC Aircraft also produces decorating materials and automobile parts.

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Avic Aircraft Co Ltd A (000768 CH)

China Property By Tier - Where Is The Action?

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid,...

Robert Ciemniak

Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on Scrapping

Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on ScrappingMore containership capacity is being demolished than ever before, including...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Chinese Real Estate Pricing in 21% Price Increase

Due to its enormous importance to the Chinese economy and the drivers of the 2008 global financial crisis, many analysts focus on the real estate...

Christopher Balding

China: Slower Land Sales Growth In 40 Major Cities But Acquisitions By Major Developers Rise 40%

In May 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Economic Recap for June

Outlook on China’s PMI The month of June furthered the case that the Chinese economy has plateaued and potentially started declining again. With...

Christopher Balding

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