Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Following the recent downgrades of Australia’s banks by ratings agencies and the spike in credit default swap (CDS) rates we provide our own balance sheet risk score. This can be helpful in considering relative risks should Australia economic conditions worsen. In our risk scoring we include exposure to interest-only (IO) loans; investor mortgage loans; low documentation (low doc) loans; commercial loans; and other personal loans. At the same time, we consider relative levels of total allowance…

Following the recent downgrades of Australia’s banks by ratings agencies and the spike in credit default swap (CDS) rates we provide our own balance sheet risk score. This can be helpful in considering relative risks should Australia economic conditions worsen. In our risk scoring we include exposure to interest-only (IO) loans; investor mortgage loans; low documentation (low doc) loans; commercial loans; and other personal loans. At the same time, we consider relative levels of total allowance…

Director - Research, Consulting and Advisory, BondAdviser

Nicholas Yaxley

Director - Research, Consulting and Advisory

Australian bonds & fixed income research

BondAdviser

BondAdviser is the central reference point for intelligent information on Australian fixed income markets. We help you make informed decisions by providing unbiased research, transparent pricing data, analytics, portfolio tools and education.

BondAdviser has the broadest coverage of retail-accessible ASX-listed and over-the-counter Australian bonds and fixed income securities. We make it easy for you to review and compare investments before you place an order with your broker or dealer.

On the 22nd of May 2017, Standard and Poor's (S&amp;P) announced that 23 Banks (both domestic and foreign branches) operating in Australia will be downgraded due to concerns around potential economic imbalances.The agency suggested that "economic imbalances in Australia have increased due to strong growth in private sector debt and residential property prices in the past four years, notwithstanding some signs of moderation in growth in recent weeks. Consequently, we believe financial institutions…

On the 22nd of May 2017, Standard and Poor's (S&amp;P) announced that 23 Banks (both domestic and foreign branches) operating in Australia will be downgraded due to concerns around potential economic imbalances.The agency suggested that "economic imbalances in Australia have increased due to strong growth in private sector debt and residential property prices in the past four years, notwithstanding some signs of moderation in growth in recent weeks. Consequently, we believe financial institutions…

S&P Australian Bank Rating Downgrade Analysis

Equity Bottom-Up

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Equity Bottom-Up

There are often signs at the periphery of heightened bank risk. It can be the cutting of wholesale funding lines. Deposit flight at bank branches. A high-profile default in the news. For sure, quarterly data on credit costs, non-performing loans (NPLs), and other base credit metrics will rarely be as timely. Australia &amp; New Zealand Banking Corp (ANZ) shows a sharp rise of its credit default swap (CDS) rates in recent days. The perception of the bank’s credit worthiness has worsened.ANZ - Credit…

There are often signs at the periphery of heightened bank risk. It can be the cutting of wholesale funding lines. Deposit flight at bank branches. A high-profile default in the news. For sure, quarterly data on credit costs, non-performing loans (NPLs), and other base credit metrics will rarely be as timely. Australia &amp; New Zealand Banking Corp (ANZ) shows a sharp rise of its credit default swap (CDS) rates in recent days. The perception of the bank’s credit worthiness has worsened.ANZ - Credit…

Credit Default Swap Spreads Ramping Higher

There are often stories in Australia about concerns on marketing banking products to consumers, or breaches of confidential information, or complaints in general. The government is now imposing a 6bps levy on the largest banks, in part to address this, but also to shore up government finances. The impact on banks will not be inconsequential. The 6bps bank levy is based on total liabilities, but less any small retail deposits, lower than A$250,000. This granularity is not available and we…

There are often stories in Australia about concerns on marketing banking products to consumers, or breaches of confidential information, or complaints in general. The government is now imposing a 6bps levy on the largest banks, in part to address this, but also to shore up government finances. The impact on banks will not be inconsequential. The 6bps bank levy is based on total liabilities, but less any small retail deposits, lower than A$250,000. This granularity is not available and we…

Regulatory Risk in Australia Banking Lights Up

Credit

As we move into the new month, demand for corporate bonds remains strong. The balance has been skewed for most of 2017, with bonds being easy to sell but difficult to buy. But as primary supply has increased (mostly in institutional markets), this skew has eased slightly. This suggests that credit spreads are likely to trade in a tight range over the next quarter, subject to no material event causing a correction in the broader market.Year to date (YTD) returns have been broadly in-line with…

As we move into the new month, demand for corporate bonds remains strong. The balance has been skewed for most of 2017, with bonds being easy to sell but difficult to buy. But as primary supply has increased (mostly in institutional markets), this skew has eased slightly. This suggests that credit spreads are likely to trade in a tight range over the next quarter, subject to no material event causing a correction in the broader market.Year to date (YTD) returns have been broadly in-line with…

Weekly Highlights: Month End, Bank Reporting, Corporate News

Australia

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers accounts checking, savings  deposits, money market, mortgage, and term loans services, as well as card facilities and Internet  banking services. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group serves customers in New Zealand and Australia.

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Australia & New Zealand Bankin (AN3 AU)

Australia Banks – Scoring Bank Risk

Following the recent downgrades of Australia’s banks by ratings agencies and the spike in credit default swap (CDS) rates we provide our own...

Daniel Tabbush

S&P Australian Bank Rating Downgrade Analysis

On the 22nd of May 2017, Standard and Poor's (S&P) announced that 23 Banks (both domestic and foreign branches) operating in Australia will be...

BondAdviser

Credit Default Swap Spreads Ramping Higher

There are often signs at the periphery of heightened bank risk. It can be the cutting of wholesale funding lines. Deposit flight at bank branches....

Daniel Tabbush

Regulatory Risk in Australia Banking Lights Up

There are often stories in Australia about concerns on marketing banking products to consumers, or breaches of confidential information, or...

Daniel Tabbush

Weekly Highlights: Month End, Bank Reporting, Corporate News

As we move into the new month, demand for corporate bonds remains strong. The balance has been skewed for most of 2017, with bonds being easy to...

BondAdviser

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