Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.


India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>As things stand, there could be one index change for the SENSEX index. </li>
<li>There could be four ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 index and four ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the June 2024 index rebal event.
As things stand, there could be one index change for the SENSEX index. 
There could be four ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 index and four ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun 24: Wipro SENSEX Deletion Possible

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Indian pharmaceutical companies started FY24 on a strong note. Due to better pricing environment, drug shortages, and new launches, sector heavyweights reported double-digit revenue growth from U.S. business.</li>
<li>Price erosion has come down to high single-digit from their peak of mid-teens. Despite the rise in number of ANDA approvals from the US FDA, Indian companies continued their dominance.</li>
<li>Indian pharmaceutical companies have accelerated the filing pace. With shorter timeline of approval, the companies are witnessing a spike in number of approvals. Regulatory risk remains the main downside risk.</li>
</ul>


Indian pharmaceutical companies started FY24 on a strong note. Due to better pricing environment, drug shortages, and new launches, sector heavyweights reported double-digit revenue growth from U.S. business.
Price erosion has come down to high single-digit from their peak of mid-teens. Despite the rise in number of ANDA approvals from the US FDA, Indian companies continued their dominance.
Indian pharmaceutical companies have accelerated the filing pace. With shorter timeline of approval, the companies are witnessing a spike in number of approvals. Regulatory risk remains the main downside risk.


Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

Equity Bottom-Up

Alkem Laboratories Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkem-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26928:1" rel="noopener">Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN)</a> is flying high on strong Q2 numbers. The shares rallied 23% since the company announced Q2FY24 result in early November, widely outperforming Nifty Pharma index.</li>
<li>In Q2FY24, revenue grew 12% YoY, and gross margin expanded 380bps to 61.4% backed by lower raw material cost and lower intensity of price erosion in US market.</li>
<li>For the U.S. business, Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms for FY24. The company has reiterated FY24 gross margin guidance at 59.0–59.5%.</li>
</ul>



Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN) is flying high on strong Q2 numbers. The shares rallied 23% since the company announced Q2FY24 result in early November, widely outperforming Nifty Pharma index.
In Q2FY24, revenue grew 12% YoY, and gross margin expanded 380bps to 61.4% backed by lower raw material cost and lower intensity of price erosion in US market.
For the U.S. business, Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms for FY24. The company has reiterated FY24 gross margin guidance at 59.0–59.5%.


Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Further Upside on Card on US Business and Margin Improvement

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

India

Aurobindo Pharma Limited manufactures and markets oral and sterile antibiotics, antibacterials, anti-ulcerants and other generic basic drugs. Products include semi-synthetic penicillin drugs like ampicillin and amoxycillinas well as antibiotics, which include cloxacillin and dicloxacillin. The Company also manufactures formulations like astemizole, domeperidone and omeprazole.

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Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP IN)

India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun 24: Wipro SENSEX Deletion Possible

Wipro could be deleted from the SENSEX index in June 2024 and Coal India could become the replacement. There could be around three days of volume...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...

Tina Banerjee

Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Further Upside on Card on US Business and Margin Improvement

Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms from US business in FY24. FY24 gross margin guidance is 59.0–59.5%, backed by lower...

Tina Banerjee

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun 24: Wipro SENSEX Deletion Possible

Wipro could be deleted from the SENSEX index in June 2024 and Coal India could become the replacement. There could be around three days of volume...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

​Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...

Tina Banerjee

Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Further Upside on Card on US Business and Margin Improvement

Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms from US business in FY24. FY24 gross margin guidance is 59.0–59.5%, backed by lower...

Tina Banerjee

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun 24: Wipro SENSEX Deletion Possible

Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...