China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Atour Lifestyle Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Atour reported its 1Q23 revenue 2.8%/4.3% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP NI 22.7%/38.8% higher than our est./cons. The bottom-line beat is driven by strong sales growth from Occ. </li>
<li>We expect 2Q23/2023 rev. to grow 75%/65% YoY, implying 115%/112% of RevPAR recovery rate vs. 2019 and 85/291 net new hotels. </li>
<li>We maintain the BUY rating, and raise TP by US$1 to US$35 to factor in the higher gross margin expectation at 40% in 2023.</li>
</ul>


Atour reported its 1Q23 revenue 2.8%/4.3% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP NI 22.7%/38.8% higher than our est./cons. The bottom-line beat is driven by strong sales growth from Occ. 
We expect 2Q23/2023 rev. to grow 75%/65% YoY, implying 115%/112% of RevPAR recovery rate vs. 2019 and 85/291 net new hotels. 
We maintain the BUY rating, and raise TP by US$1 to US$35 to factor in the higher gross margin expectation at 40% in 2023.


[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) Target Price Change]: Strong Sales Growth Support Expansion, Maintain BUY

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NTES: Justice Mobile launches 2nd round of closed beta test (-)</li>
<li>PDD: PDD announces RMB 4bn in subsidies for annual May 5th Shopping Festival (+)</li>
<li>LKNCY/2150HK/ATAT: Labor Day holiday Tourism consumption recovered to pre-covid level in labor day holiday, and catering sector is leading the retail recovery trend.(+)</li>
</ul>


NTES: Justice Mobile launches 2nd round of closed beta test (-)
PDD: PDD announces RMB 4bn in subsidies for annual May 5th Shopping Festival (+)
LKNCY/2150HK/ATAT: Labor Day holiday Tourism consumption recovered to pre-covid level in labor day holiday, and catering sector is leading the retail recovery trend.(+)


China TMT Update (May 5-Pt1): NTES/PDD/LKNCY/2150HK/ATAT：Justice Mobile Launches 2nd Round Test

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Chinese outbound air travel in the region surged in March, up 50%+ versus February</li>
<li>Domestic improvement more muted, but still up about 75% Y/Y in Q123</li>
<li>Is the expected recovery on track? Sure, but so far no upside surprises for investors</li>
</ul>


Chinese outbound air travel in the region surged in March, up 50%+ versus February
Domestic improvement more muted, but still up about 75% Y/Y in Q123
Is the expected recovery on track? Sure, but so far no upside surprises for investors


Chinese Outbound Tourism Recovery Accelerates, But Still a Fraction of Pre-Covid Level

<ul>
<li>Atour reported its 4Q22 revenue/non-GAAP operating profit/non-GAAP net income 8.0%/78.3%/114.6% higher than our estimate. </li>
<li>We adjust Atour’s hotel expansion estimate from 2.4k to 1.9k until 2025 due to its low appetite in expanding midscale segment.</li>
<li>We raise our 2023 earnings estimate due to better operating efficiency, but trimmed its hotel network expanding pace in 2023-2025, leading to TP cut by US$2.5 to US$34.</li>
</ul>


Atour reported its 4Q22 revenue/non-GAAP operating profit/non-GAAP net income 8.0%/78.3%/114.6% higher than our estimate. 
We adjust Atour’s hotel expansion estimate from 2.4k to 1.9k until 2025 due to its low appetite in expanding midscale segment.
We raise our 2023 earnings estimate due to better operating efficiency, but trimmed its hotel network expanding pace in 2023-2025, leading to TP cut by US$2.5 to US$34.


[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$34) Target Price Change]: A Steady Expanding Year in 2023

<ul>
<li>Baba: Baba management holds a call with investors to explain recent movements. </li>
<li>700HK/ 1024HK/ BILI/ BIDU：Wechat Open Class is held, more features are announced（+/-/-/-）</li>
<li>ATAT：Accor formed alliance with Douyin to further explore independent growth (+)</li>
</ul>


Baba: Baba management holds a call with investors to explain recent movements. 
700HK/ 1024HK/ BILI/ BIDU：Wechat Open Class is held, more features are announced（+/-/-/-）
ATAT：Accor formed alliance with Douyin to further explore independent growth (+)


China TMT Update(Mar.31) - Baba/ 700HK/1024HK/BILI/BIDU/ATAT: Baba Management's Call

China

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and manages midscale hotel chain through offline and online channels, including mobile application and weixin-wechat mini program. Atour Lifestyle Holdings serves customers in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US)

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) Target Price Change]: Strong Sales Growth Support Expansion, Maintain BUY

We maintain the BUY rating, and raise TP by US$1 to US$35 to factor in the higher gross margin expectation at 40% in 2023

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update (May 5-Pt1): NTES/PDD/LKNCY/2150HK/ATAT：Justice Mobile Launches 2nd Round Test

Labor Day holiday Tourism consumption recovered.(+) NTES: Justice Mobile launches 2nd round of closed beta test (-) PDD: PDD announces RMB 4bn in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Chinese Outbound Tourism Recovery Accelerates, But Still a Fraction of Pre-Covid Level

Chinese tourism activity accelerated last month (particularly outbound travel), but it remains at a fraction of pre-Covid levels -- we see no...

Tracking Traffic

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$34) Target Price Change]: A Steady Expanding Year in 2023

We maintain the BUY rating, we raise our 2023 earnings estimate due to better operating efficiency, but trimmed its hotel network expanding pace in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update(Mar.31) - Baba/ 700HK/1024HK/BILI/BIDU/ATAT: Baba Management's Call

700HK/1024HK/BILI/BIDU：Wechat Open Class is held; ATAT：Accor formed alliance with Douyin to further explore independent growth in China ; key...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)