China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ATAT: Legacy-Huazhu 2Q23 RevPAR increased 21% vs. same period in 2019（+）</li>
<li>XPEV: weekly data indicates G6 capacity still needs time to ramp up (-)</li>
<li>XPEV : The VW brand concludes technological framework agreement for long-term cooperation with Xpeng (+)</li>
</ul>


ATAT: Legacy-Huazhu 2Q23 RevPAR increased 21% vs. same period in 2019（+）
XPEV: weekly data indicates G6 capacity still needs time to ramp up (-)
XPEV : The VW brand concludes technological framework agreement for long-term cooperation with Xpeng (+)


China TMT Update-ATAT/XPEV-The VW Brand Cooperate with Xpeng;G6 Capacity;Legacy-Huazhu 2Q23 RevPAR

Equity Bottom-Up

Atour Lifestyle Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect Atour to report 2Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI at 94% YoY and 259% YoY, which is 22% and 20% above BBG consensus respectively. </li>
<li>We expect Atour’s RevPAR in 3Q23/2023 increase to 110%/114% of corresponding 2019 level from previous estimate at 105%/112%. </li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY rating, and maintain TP at US$35 because the operational gains has been mitigated by FX loss in terms of valuation</li>
</ul>


We expect Atour to report 2Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI at 94% YoY and 259% YoY, which is 22% and 20% above BBG consensus respectively. 
We expect Atour’s RevPAR in 3Q23/2023 increase to 110%/114% of corresponding 2019 level from previous estimate at 105%/112%. 
We maintain the stock as BUY rating, and maintain TP at US$35 because the operational gains has been mitigated by FX loss in terms of valuation


[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$35) Preview]: Retail and Summer Travelling Are Two Catalysts

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>In May, the recovery in outbound travel remained strong, but not surprisingly so</li>
<li>Meanwhile, improvement in domestic travel activity appears to have lost steam</li>
<li>Six months in, we simply do not see any positive surprises in the travel boom</li>
</ul>


In May, the recovery in outbound travel remained strong, but not surprisingly so
Meanwhile, improvement in domestic travel activity appears to have lost steam
Six months in, we simply do not see any positive surprises in the travel boom


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Firmer | Domestic Losing Steam | No Surprises (June 2023)

<ul>
<li>NTES/700.HK: China’s NPPA publishes list of 89 domestic game code approval</li>
<li>9995HK/1801HK：RemeGen explored ADC-PD1 combination theray for its RC88 and RC108 with Innovent (-)</li>
<li>LKNCY/2150HK/ATAT/3690HK: Tourism spending maintain stable growth during Dragon Boat Festival, indicating sustainable recovery in service oriented consumption in China.(+)</li>
</ul>


NTES/700.HK: China’s NPPA publishes list of 89 domestic game code approval
9995HK/1801HK：RemeGen explored ADC-PD1 combination theray for its RC88 and RC108 with Innovent (-)
LKNCY/2150HK/ATAT/3690HK: Tourism spending maintain stable growth during Dragon Boat Festival, indicating sustainable recovery in service oriented consumption in China.(+)


China TMT Update-NTES/700.HK/9995HK/1801HK/LKNCY/2150HK/ATAT/3690HK:Game Code,ADC-PD1, Tourism Spend

<ul>
<li>Q123 Net Revenue was strong, exceeding Q119 (pre-Covid) levels by over 12%</li>
<li>Almost six months into recovery, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> has also managed SG&amp;A expenses well</li>
<li>A good result for the company, but we see no reason to alter our long-term view</li>
</ul>


Q123 Net Revenue was strong, exceeding Q119 (pre-Covid) levels by over 12%
Almost six months into recovery, Trip.com (TCOM US) has also managed SG&amp;A expenses well
A good result for the company, but we see no reason to alter our long-term view


Trip.com Q123 | Revenue Surges Past Q119 Level | Decade-High Margin | But Our Thesis Is Unchanged

China

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and manages midscale hotel chain through offline and online channels, including mobile application and weixin-wechat mini program. Atour Lifestyle Holdings serves customers in China.

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Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US)

China TMT Update-ATAT/XPEV-The VW Brand Cooperate with Xpeng;G6 Capacity;Legacy-Huazhu 2Q23 RevPAR

XPEV : The VW brand cooperation with Xpeng (+);XPEV: weekly data indicates G6 capacity still needs time to ramp up (-);ATAT: Legacy-Huazhu 2Q23...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$35) Preview]: Retail and Summer Travelling Are Two Catalysts

We maintain the stock as BUY rating, and maintain TP at US$35 because the operational gains has been mitigated by FX loss in terms of valuation

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Firmer | Domestic Losing Steam | No Surprises (June 2023)

The recovery in outbound travel remained strong in May, and domestic activity also continued to improve, though it appears to be losing some...

Tracking Traffic

China TMT Update-NTES/700.HK/9995HK/1801HK/LKNCY/2150HK/ATAT/3690HK:Game Code,ADC-PD1, Tourism Spend

NTES/700.HK: 89 domestic game code approval；9995HK/1801HK：RemeGen explored ADC-PD1 combination theray；LKNCY/2150HK/ATAT/3690HK: Tourism spending...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com Q123 | Revenue Surges Past Q119 Level | Decade-High Margin | But Our Thesis Is Unchanged

Trip.com posted a strong result in Q123, with Revenue finally above pre-Covid levels and core margins at a decade-high. But management seemed to...

Tracking Traffic

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