Value investor- India mid & small caps

Bhaskar Chakraborty

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While many NBFCs pulled back on disbursements in 3QFY19, the sharpest declines were in SME/MSME, LAP and Loan Against Shares (LAS) segments</li>
<li>The pullback in SME/MSME financing has reduced working capital financing in some supply chains. This has impacted stocking in some discretionary items.</li>
<li>A number of players alluded to weakness in discretionary consumption post Diwali owing to the NBFC liquidity squeeze</li>
<li>With supply chains selectively impacted by liquidity tightness and weakness in demand, consumer discretionary players could not pass on input cost increases during the quarter</li>
</ul>


While many NBFCs pulled back on disbursements in 3QFY19, the sharpest declines were in SME/MSME, LAP and Loan Against Shares (LAS) segments
The pullback in SME/MSME financing has reduced working capital financing in some supply chains. This has impacted stocking in some discretionary items.
A number of players alluded to weakness in discretionary consumption post Diwali owing to the NBFC liquidity squeeze
With supply chains selectively impacted by liquidity tightness and weakness in demand, consumer discretionary players could not pass on input cost increases during the quarter


India Consumer Discretionary: Growth Slowing on NBFC Liquidity Tightness, Demand Softness

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Our outlook for ex-U.S. markets (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index, local currency) remains neutral - bordering on cautious. Our concern stems from the recent pattern of lower highs and continued underperformance relative to MSCI ACWI - remain underweight.  Two bright spots: we are seeing bullish inflections in Japan (TOPIX and Nikkei 225), and India's SENSEX.  We unpack these, and also highlight actionable set ups in our global Communications, and Transportation Sectors.

Our outlook for ex-U.S. markets (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index, local currency) remains neutral - bordering on cautious. Our concern stems from the recent pattern of lower highs and continued underperformance relative to MSCI ACWI - remain underweight.  Two bright spots: we are seeing bullish inflections in Japan (TOPIX and Nikkei 225), and India's SENSEX.  We unpack these, and also highlight actionable set ups in our global Communications, and Transportation Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Japan and India

Asia-Focused Industry Research, Speeda Research

Speeda

Asia-Focused Industry Research

Speeda Research

Speeda Research analysts cover China, Japan, India and SEA on the latest trends and topics. We have analysts of diverse nationalities who are able to access information in their respective local languages to provide customers with comprehensive reports. With access to private company data in these regions, Speeda Research is also able to provide insights into niche sectors which are not usually covered by other parties. We are also able to undertake ad hoc company and industry research reports.

In July 2015, the Indian government set a target of 10 million PNG (piped natural gas) connections to be made within two years. But as of September 2016, the government was 7 million short of its goal with the odds of achieving it in less than a year seeming very low. Increasing PNG and CNG (compressed natural gas) connections are part of the government’s wider plan to more than double the share of natural gas in India’s energy mix to 20% by 2025. To achieve this goal, the government needs to ramp up transmission infrastructure and increase capacity of import infrastructure to cater to the expected surge in natural gas imports, apart from introducing key policies with regards to pricing, taxation and regulation. Based on past evidence and the information provided within this report, we think the government will fall short of its energy mix targets, just like it did in the PNG segment.

In July 2015, the Indian government set a target of 10 million PNG (piped natural gas) connections to be made within two years. But as of September 2016, the government was 7 million short of its goal with the odds of achieving it in less than a year seeming very low. Increasing PNG and CNG (compressed natural gas) connections are part of the government’s wider plan to more than double the share of natural gas in India’s energy mix to 20% by 2025. To achieve this goal, the government needs to ramp up transmission infrastructure and increase capacity of import infrastructure to cater to the expected surge in natural gas imports, apart from introducing key policies with regards to pricing, taxation and regulation. Based on past evidence and the information provided within this report, we think the government will fall short of its energy mix targets, just like it did in the PNG segment.

Falling Natural Gas Production and Poor Import Infra Make PNG a Distant Dream for Most Indians

Containerisation of generalised cargo in India is stated to be only about 22%, a very low figure compared to the 80% in developed nations. The segment remains in a sorry state with the logistics sector largely inundated by unorganised players. Nevertheless, we think the introduction of GST, multimodal logistics parks and the dedicated freight corridors could prove to be a game changer. Also the container manufacturing sector in India is almost negligent and new players could easily gain market share over the current market which is dominated by Chinese containers being imported into the country at a premium.

Containerisation of generalised cargo in India is stated to be only about 22%, a very low figure compared to the 80% in developed nations. The segment remains in a sorry state with the logistics sector largely inundated by unorganised players. Nevertheless, we think the introduction of GST, multimodal logistics parks and the dedicated freight corridors could prove to be a game changer. Also the container manufacturing sector in India is almost negligent and new players could easily gain market share over the current market which is dominated by Chinese containers being imported into the country at a premium.

Containerisation: Prerequisite to Efficient Inter-Modal and Multi-Modal Transportation in India

Since Independence, rail freight has played an important role in carrying the nation forward. But with freight traffic growth slowing, it is high time the Indian Railways did a re-evaluation of its strategy to keep rail freight a going concern. In this report we will look into reasons for the slump in freight traffic and how it can be rejuvenated to continue as the highest revenue grossing segment of the Indian Railways.

Since Independence, rail freight has played an important role in carrying the nation forward. But with freight traffic growth slowing, it is high time the Indian Railways did a re-evaluation of its strategy to keep rail freight a going concern. In this report we will look into reasons for the slump in freight traffic and how it can be rejuvenated to continue as the highest revenue grossing segment of the Indian Railways.

"Freight" or Flight: A Look into the Indian Railways' Largest Revenue Segment

India

Astral Polytechnik Limited manufactures and markets CPVC plumbing systems for residential and industrial applications. The Company also manufactures ASTM solvent weld lead free PVC plumbing systems.

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Astral Ltd (ASTRA IN)

India Consumer Discretionary: Growth Slowing on NBFC Liquidity Tightness, Demand Softness

While many NBFCs pulled back on disbursements in 3QFY19, the sharpest declines were in SME/MSME, LAP and Loan Against Shares (LAS) segments The...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Japan and India

Our outlook for ex-U.S. markets (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index, local currency) remains neutral - bordering on cautious. Our concern stems from the...

Vermilion Research

Falling Natural Gas Production and Poor Import Infra Make PNG a Distant Dream for Most Indians

In July 2015, the Indian government set a target of 10 million PNG (piped natural gas) connections to be made within two years. But as of September...

Speeda Research

"Freight" or Flight: A Look into the Indian Railways' Largest Revenue Segment

Since Independence, rail freight has played an important role in carrying the nation forward. But with freight traffic growth slowing, it is high...

Speeda Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India Consumer Discretionary: Growth Slowing on NBFC Liquidity Tightness, Demand Softness

While many NBFCs pulled back on disbursements in 3QFY19, the sharpest declines were in SME/MSME, LAP and Loan Against Shares (LAS) segments The...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Japan and India

Our outlook for ex-U.S. markets (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index, local currency) remains neutral - bordering on cautious. Our concern stems from the...

Vermilion Research

Falling Natural Gas Production and Poor Import Infra Make PNG a Distant Dream for Most Indians

In July 2015, the Indian government set a target of 10 million PNG (piped natural gas) connections to be made within two years. But as of September...

Speeda Research

Containerisation: Prerequisite to Efficient Inter-Modal and Multi-Modal Transportation in India

Containerisation of generalised cargo in India is stated to be only about 22%, a very low figure compared to the 80% in developed nations. The...

Speeda Research

"Freight" or Flight: A Look into the Indian Railways' Largest Revenue Segment

Since Independence, rail freight has played an important role in carrying the nation forward. But with freight traffic growth slowing, it is high...

Speeda Research