ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware</a> has been a distinct laggard amongst listed retailers in Indonesia, with its valuations drifting to multi-year lows, given a slow recovery from the pandemic and limited digital strategy. </li>
<li>The company has continued to see lacklustre SSSG finish flat for last year but has recently opined a more optimistic outlook for 2023, planning to open 10-15 new stores.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a> trades on 13.7x FY2023E PER and 12.7x FY2024E PER when it used to trade on twice that multiple with not dissimilar growth rates.</li>
</ul>



Ace Hardware has been a distinct laggard amongst listed retailers in Indonesia, with its valuations drifting to multi-year lows, given a slow recovery from the pandemic and limited digital strategy. 
The company has continued to see lacklustre SSSG finish flat for last year but has recently opined a more optimistic outlook for 2023, planning to open 10-15 new stores.

Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) trades on 13.7x FY2023E PER and 12.7x FY2024E PER when it used to trade on twice that multiple with not dissimilar growth rates.


Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Will Expansion Mode Be Enough?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia. </li>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-retail-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28240:1" rel="noopener">Central Retail Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Cor,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd,</a> and Thai Banks.</li>
<li>We also saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/one-enterprise-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34954:1" rel="noopener">One Enterprise</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramkhamhaeng-hospital-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9626:1" rel="noopener">Ramkhamhaeng Hospital</a> also two pieces on the Thai Economy plus insights from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> on Index rebalancing in Indonesia and the Philippines.</li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia. 
The past week saw insights on Bank Central Asia, Bank Negara Indonesia, Central Retail Corp, Comfortdelgro Cor, Sea Ltd, and Thai Banks.
We also saw insights on One Enterprise and Ramkhamhaeng Hospital also two pieces on the Thai Economy plus insights from Brian Freitas on Index rebalancing in Indonesia and the Philippines.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma -Bank Central Asia, Bank Negara Indonesia, and Central Retail.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes for the IDX30 Index, 6 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented on 31 January.</li>
<li>Largest passive inflows are expected to be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-esa-perkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14326:1" rel="noopener">Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes for the IDX30 Index, 6 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented on 31 January.
Largest passive inflows are expected to be on Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ) and Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ). 
With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: 4 Days to Implementation

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 30 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Potential adds are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-esa-perkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14326:1" rel="noopener">Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saratoga-investama-sedaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13714:1" rel="noopener"> Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-minerals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35927:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-dayamitra-telekomunikasi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Mitratel (MTEL IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>Potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wijaya-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1877:1" rel="noopener">PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk (WIKA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener">Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 30 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Potential adds are Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ), Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ), Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG IJ), Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ) and Mitratel (MTEL IJ). 
Potential deletions are PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk (WIKA IJ), Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ), Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ), Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ) and HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ). 


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Few Weeks to Implementation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dynasty-ceramic-pub-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19650:1" rel="noopener">Dynasty Ceramic Pub (DCC TB)</a> is Thailand's leading ceramic tile manufacturer with a large portion of sales in the mass market as well as upcountry, diversifying sales. </li>
<li>The company continues to build new capacity and is moving into the porcelain tile business to cater for the higher-end market where it will compete with Chinese imports.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dynasty-ceramic-pub-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19650:1" rel="noopener">Dynasty Ceramic Pub (DCC TB)</a> is a high-quality play on the economic recovery in Thailand, with a good governance reputation. Valuations look reasonable plus a dividend yield of over 6%.</li>
</ul>



Dynasty Ceramic Pub (DCC TB) is Thailand's leading ceramic tile manufacturer with a large portion of sales in the mass market as well as upcountry, diversifying sales. 
The company continues to build new capacity and is moving into the porcelain tile business to cater for the higher-end market where it will compete with Chinese imports.

Dynasty Ceramic Pub (DCC TB) is a high-quality play on the economic recovery in Thailand, with a good governance reputation. Valuations look reasonable plus a dividend yield of over 6%.


Dynasty Ceramic Pub (DCC TB) - Tiling Thailand with Large and Small

Indonesia

PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia Tbk retails tools, home improvement products, lawn and garden supplies, plumbing, furniture, sporting goods, and pet supplies.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)

Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Will Expansion Mode Be Enough?

Ace Hardware Indonesia trades on 13.7x FY23E PER and 12.7x FY24E PER when it used to trade on twice that multiple with not dissimilar growth rates,...

Angus Mackintosh

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma -Bank Central Asia, Bank Negara Indonesia, and Central Retail.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: 4 Days to Implementation

There are 3, 6 and 7 changes for the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices. There are only 4 days to implementation and multiple days ADV to trade on a lot...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Few Weeks to Implementation

We filter stocks that have a possibility of becoming adds/deletes for the LQ45 Index in Jan. The impact on the deletes will be higher, plus there...

Brian Freitas

Dynasty Ceramic Pub (DCC TB) - Tiling Thailand with Large and Small

Dynasty Ceramic Pub (DCC TB) is a high-quality play on the economic recovery in Thailand, with a good governance reputation. Valuations look...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Will Expansion Mode Be Enough?

Ace Hardware Indonesia trades on 13.7x FY23E PER and 12.7x FY24E PER when it used to trade on twice that multiple with not dissimilar growth rates,...

Angus Mackintosh

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma -Bank Central Asia, Bank Negara Indonesia, and Central Retail.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: 4 Days to Implementation

There are 3, 6 and 7 changes for the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices. There are only 4 days to implementation and multiple days ADV to trade on a lot...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Few Weeks to Implementation

We filter stocks that have a possibility of becoming adds/deletes for the LQ45 Index in Jan. The impact on the deletes will be higher, plus there...

Brian Freitas

Dynasty Ceramic Pub (DCC TB) - Tiling Thailand with Large and Small

Dynasty Ceramic Pub (DCC TB) is a high-quality play on the economic recovery in Thailand, with a good governance reputation. Valuations look...

Angus Mackintosh

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: 4 Days to Implementation