Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Will Semiconductor   Shan / Technical Analysis

New developments suggest caution is warranted, and leads us to believe the mixed market environment is poised to continue. The new and concerning developments include widening high yield spreads in the U.S. and Europe and improving relative strength for defensive Sectors -- both are clear signs of risk aversion. At the same time, global indexes remain above critical support levels; until this changes our neutral outlook remains appropriate.

New developments suggest caution is warranted, and leads us to believe the mixed market environment is poised to continue. The new and concerning developments include widening high yield spreads in the U.S. and Europe and improving relative strength for defensive Sectors -- both are clear signs of risk aversion. At the same time, global indexes remain above critical support levels; until this changes our neutral outlook remains appropriate.

Global Equity Strategy: Reason For Caution; Actionable Themes: Services/Technology & Staples

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>"The person that turns over the most rocks wins the game;"</li>
<li>This is why we would like to explore every corner on this planet, including places like Taiwan, in search of alpha-generating businesses;</li>
<li>Despite the scant attention among stock pickers, the region by no means lacks high-quality businesses, in our view;</li>
<li>To showcase, we list some of our top picks from a quality perspective (meaning no consideration of the current valuation).</li>
</ul>


"The person that turns over the most rocks wins the game;"
This is why we would like to explore every corner on this planet, including places like Taiwan, in search of alpha-generating businesses;
Despite the scant attention among stock pickers, the region by no means lacks high-quality businesses, in our view;
To showcase, we list some of our top picks from a quality perspective (meaning no consideration of the current valuation).


Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns for major indexes around the globe. The path of least resistance remains higher and we continue to believe a melt-up is likely in the weeks/months ahead. The global Technology, Discretionary, and Manufacturing Sectors remain leadership -- add exposure/remain overweight. The Financial Sector has been playing catch-up and continues to show signs of price and RS bottoms as expectations rise for a global recovery -- add exposure.

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns for major indexes around the globe. The path of least resistance remains higher and we continue to believe a melt-up is likely in the weeks/months ahead. The global Technology, Discretionary, and Manufacturing Sectors remain leadership -- add exposure/remain overweight. The Financial Sector has been playing catch-up and continues to show signs of price and RS bottoms as expectations rise for a global recovery -- add exposure.

Global Equity Strategy: Santa Claus Rally Underway

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

The two quarter-long recovery in both DRAM and NAND prices reversed course during Q3 with ASPs down 2-9% in the case of the former and 9-10% for the latter. Paradoxically, bit shipments were particularly robust during the quarter, indicating strong market demand. In the face of such strong demand, why did memory ASPs decline so much? Here's our thoughts on the matter.

The two quarter-long recovery in both DRAM and NAND prices reversed course during Q3 with ASPs down 2-9% in the case of the former and 9-10% for the latter. Paradoxically, bit shipments were particularly robust during the quarter, indicating strong market demand. In the face of such strong demand, why did memory ASPs decline so much? Here's our thoughts on the matter. 

Memory Recovery Reverses Course As Prices Fall Across The Board

The spread of the global pandemic has resulted in the strongest two consecutive quarters on record for server sales and led to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel</a> beating its second quarter forecast by nearly one billion dollars. This strength in server has spilled over to the DRAM and NAND segments with both staging robust recoveries from the protracted down cycle experienced in 2019. That situation may be coming to an abrupt end however. A key leading indicator suggests that server sales will fall sharply in the coming months. We also expect both DRAM and NAND prices to follow suit. Here's why.

The spread of the global pandemic has resulted in the strongest two consecutive quarters on record for server sales and led to Intel beating its second quarter forecast by nearly one billion dollars. This strength in server has spilled over to the DRAM and NAND segments with both staging robust recoveries from the protracted down cycle experienced in 2019. That situation may be coming to an abrupt end however. A key leading indicator suggests that server sales will fall sharply in the coming months. We also expect both DRAM and NAND prices to follow suit. Here's why.   

Server CPU, DRAM, NAND Sales Heading For A Significant Decline As Inventory Digestion Commences.

Taiwan

ASPEED Technology Inc. is a fabless IC-design house that specializes in server management, PC/AV extensions solution, desktop virtualization and security enhancement. The Company's products range from silicon chips, IPs to software products that enable sophisticated SOC- centric multimedia, praphics and new work applications.

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Aspeed Technology (5274 TT)

Global Equity Strategy: Reason For Caution; Actionable Themes: Services/Technology & Staples

With interest rates expected to move sideways to lower, we recommend a mix of growth and defensive Sectors. Today we focus on Services/Technology...

Vermilion Research

Three Quality Picks From Taiwan

"The person that turns over the most rocks wins the game." This is why we would like to explore every corner on this planet, including places like...

Steven Chen

Global Equity Strategy: Santa Claus Rally Underway

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns across indexes, and we continue to...

Vermilion Research

Memory Recovery Reverses Course As Prices Fall Across The Board

Normally, robust demand for memory products results in stable or rising prices. The opposite happened in Q3 2020. Here's why.

William Keating

Server CPU, DRAM, NAND Sales Heading For A Significant Decline As Inventory Digestion Commences.

A leading indicator for server sales

William Keating

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