Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>No change to FY 2023 outlook but some EUV orders for H2 2024 still remain to be booked</li>
<li>Net systems bookings fell sharply during the quarter, down ~40% sequentially</li>
<li>With an order backlog of ~$39 billion, we see ASML riding out this semi storm relatively unscathed compared to their peers.  </li>
</ul>


No change to FY 2023 outlook but some EUV orders for H2 2024 still remain to be booked
Net systems bookings fell sharply during the quarter, down ~40% sequentially
With an order backlog of ~$39 billion, we see ASML riding out this semi storm relatively unscathed compared to their peers.  


ASML. Still A Safe Harbor In A Semi Storm

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC is cutting its 2023E capex plans by 12% according to Taiwan's EDN. The company will also report earnings this Thursday.</li>
<li>TSMC suppliers ASML and Lam Research will also be reporting this week. Realtek will report this week as well.</li>
<li>Delta Thailand valuation still precarious relative to Delta Taiwan. Apple has continued to outperform the Quanta &amp; Pegatron pair.</li>
</ul>


TSMC is cutting its 2023E capex plans by 12% according to Taiwan's EDN. The company will also report earnings this Thursday.
TSMC suppliers ASML and Lam Research will also be reporting this week. Realtek will report this week as well.
Delta Thailand valuation still precarious relative to Delta Taiwan. Apple has continued to outperform the Quanta &amp; Pegatron pair.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Cutting Capex, Earnings This Week; Suppliers ASML & Lam Also Will Report

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

<ul>
<li>The three companies we write about this week are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (A) (300750 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimberly-clark-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2292:1" rel="noopener">Kimberly Clark (KMB US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackberry-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25472:1" rel="noopener">BlackBerry Ltd (BB CN)</a> </li>
<li>For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the combined innovation portfolio was +3.6%, versus DJIA +0.4%, S&amp;P500 +4.3%, Nasdaq +8.8%, Russell2000 -3.7%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +6.2%, all in US$ terms</li>
<li>For the same period the small cap innovation portfolio was up +5.9%, the mid cap portfolio was up +4.4% and the large cap portfolio was up +3.4%</li>
</ul>


The three companies we write about this week are CATL (A) (300750 CH) , Kimberly Clark (KMB US) and BlackBerry Ltd (BB CN) 
For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the combined innovation portfolio was +3.6%, versus DJIA +0.4%, S&amp;P500 +4.3%, Nasdaq +8.8%, Russell2000 -3.7%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +6.2%, all in US$ terms
For the same period the small cap innovation portfolio was up +5.9%, the mid cap portfolio was up +4.4% and the large cap portfolio was up +3.4%


The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty One

<ul>
<li>The three companies we write about this week are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-svcs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cj-cheiljedang-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1970:1" rel="noopener">CJ Cheiljedang (097950 KS)</a>   </li>
<li>For the nineteen weeks since inception ended 31 March the combined innovation portfolio was +2.4%, versus DJIA -1.4%, S&amp;P500 +3.6%, Nasdaq +9.7%, Russell2000 -2.6%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +4.9%, all in US$ terms</li>
<li>For the nineteen since inception ended 31 March the small cap portfolio was up 8.0%, the mid cap portfolio was up 3.2% and the large cap portfolio was up 2.1%</li>
</ul>


The three companies we write about this week are Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) , LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) and CJ Cheiljedang (097950 KS)   
For the nineteen weeks since inception ended 31 March the combined innovation portfolio was +2.4%, versus DJIA -1.4%, S&amp;P500 +3.6%, Nasdaq +9.7%, Russell2000 -2.6%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +4.9%, all in US$ terms
For the nineteen since inception ended 31 March the small cap portfolio was up 8.0%, the mid cap portfolio was up 3.2% and the large cap portfolio was up 2.1%


The Innovations Portfolios - Week Nineteen

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 17 March. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$7.2bn.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stocks in terms of ADV to trade is small.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 17 March. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$7.2bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stocks in terms of ADV to trade is small.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Big Flow, Small Impact

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

ASML. Still A Safe Harbor In A Semi Storm

No change to FY 2023 outlook but some EUV orders for H2 2024 remain to be booked. With an order backlog of ~$39 billion, ASML will ride out this...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Cutting Capex, Earnings This Week; Suppliers ASML & Lam Also Will Report

Delta Thailand valuation still precarious relative to Delta Taiwan. Apple has continued to outperform the Quanta & Pegatron pair.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty One

For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the innovation small cap portfolio was up 5.9%, mid cap portfolio was up 4.4% and the large...

Pyari Menon

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Nineteen

For the nineteen since inception ended 31 March the innovation small cap portfolio was up 8.0%, the innovation mid cap portfolio was up 3.2% and...

Pyari Menon

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Big Flow, Small Impact

No constituent changes, but there are float/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. Stocks are...

Brian Freitas

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