Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: US stocks +0.6% - its all macro at the moment - higher interest rates, oil price volatility; US 30y mortgage rates now at 7.3%; Nike earnings beat </li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.4% vs cash. Toyota Aug production +4%; EPCOs to lower residential electricity prices; Sony's Game unit gets new interim boss. </li>
<li>JAPAN X: Daikin's concerns about the UK Government backtracking on its climate pledge highlight our concerns over heat pump adoption</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: US stocks +0.6% - its all macro at the moment - higher interest rates, oil price volatility; US 30y mortgage rates now at 7.3%; Nike earnings beat 
JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.4% vs cash. Toyota Aug production +4%; EPCOs to lower residential electricity prices; Sony's Game unit gets new interim boss. 
JAPAN X: Daikin's concerns about the UK Government backtracking on its climate pledge highlight our concerns over heat pump adoption


Ohayo Japan: Stocks & SOX Higher; JapanX - Delayed UK Climate Plans Threaten Heat Pump Adoption

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Stocks fall as Dicks Sporting and Macy's raises concerns over US consumer; US Tells China to be more Transparent on Economy; Traders Betting on Blow Out NVIDIA</li>
<li>JAPAN:  NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.9;  Japan Defense Ministry to ask for (another) Record Budget; 2 trillion yen request for GX spend in FY24. </li>
<li>JAPAN X:  Hitachi Introduces Innovative Executive Compensation Plan Tied to Stock Performance Against Competitors. Interesting structure-lights a fire under senior management. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Stocks fall as Dicks Sporting and Macy's raises concerns over US consumer; US Tells China to be more Transparent on Economy; Traders Betting on Blow Out NVIDIA
JAPAN:  NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.9;  Japan Defense Ministry to ask for (another) Record Budget; 2 trillion yen request for GX spend in FY24. 
JAPAN X:  Hitachi Introduces Innovative Executive Compensation Plan Tied to Stock Performance Against Competitors. Interesting structure-lights a fire under senior management. 


Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Fall on Consumer Fears; JAPAN X: Hitachi Inspires with Mgmt Incentive Scheme

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Good news from Nike’s Q3 report, which bodes well for Asics March quarter</li>
<li>Why was Nike’s stock down? Margins were down 330bps on inventory mark downs</li>
<li>Running is recession proof according to the footwear makers themselves</li>
</ul>


Good news from Nike’s Q3 report, which bodes well for Asics March quarter
Why was Nike’s stock down? Margins were down 330bps on inventory mark downs
Running is recession proof according to the footwear makers themselves


ASICS (7936) | Running Is Recession Proof

Japan

GOLDWIN INC. manufactures and markets sportswear for skiing, snowboarding, soccer, tennis, swimming, and other outdoor activities.

DESCENTE, LTD. manufactures athletic clothing including golf wear and ski wear. The Company also manufactures tennis shoes, skies, and sports bags.

SEIKO HOLDINGS CORPORATION (Hattori Seiko) designs, manufactures, and sells electronic devices, watches and clocks in Japan and overseas. The Company also sells jewelry, ophthalmic lenses, golf clubs and computer peripherals.

WACOAL HOLDINGS CORPORATION manufactures women's underwear.  The Company also manufactures outerwear, sports, and children's wear.  Wacoal has direct-sales network and overseas operations in Southeast Asia, the US, and Europe.

SEIREN CO., LTD. is a dyeing processor of filament fibers.  The Company also produces silk, synthetic fibers, and textile products used in household interior and apparel.  Seiren manufactures industrial materials including automobile interiors such as seats, air bags, and ceiling.

The Japan Wool Textile Co., Ltd. (Nikke Group) manufactures and sells woolen textiles for school uniforms, fashion and business attire, and a variety of other apparel and non-apparel goods. The Company also produces woven materials, thread and yarn for weaving and knitting, fire-resistant clothing for firefighters, and non-wool related products. Nikke operates in Japan.

Gunze Ltd manufactures underwear, socks, outerwear, and other textile. The Company also manufactures functional materials such as plastic films, electronic materials, engineering plastics, printing machinery.  Gunze operates real estate.

KURABO INDUSTRIES LTD. mainly manufactures and sells yarns and woven fabrics made from cotton and synthetic textiles.  The Company also produces polyurethane foams, synthetic woods, inorganic building materials, adhesives, and specialty plastics.  Kurabo also has operations in information system, electronic appliances, biochemical products. and real estate leasing.

ONWARD HOLDINGS CO., LTD. manufactures men's ready-made suits, women's, and children's wear.  The Company has its own brands, Onward and KUMIKYOKU. Onward also manufactures sports goods, books, stationery, cosmetics, art decoration.

TSI Holdings Company Ltd. manufactures men's and women's clothing, and retails women's clothing.  The Company produces and sells coats, dresses, suits, sweaters, shirts, skirts, and pants.

Prada S.p.A. is an Italian fashion company that designs, manufactures, promotes and sells high-end leather goods, ready-to-wear and footwear through various brands.

Skechers U.S.A., Inc. designs and markets branded contemporary casual, active, rugged, and lifestyle footwear for men, women, and children.  The Company sells its products to department stores and specialty retailers.  Skechers also sells its products internationally through distributors and directly to consumers through its own retail stores.

SRF Limited is a multi-business Indian multinational engaging in the manufacture of chemical based industrial intermediates. The Company has a business portfolio that encompasses technical textiles, chemicals, packaging films and engineering plastics.

Ralph Lauren Corporation designs, markets, and distributes men's, women's and children's apparel, accessories, fragrances, and home furnishings. The Company's products are sold under a wide range of brands. Ralph Lauren's operations include wholesale, retail, and licensing.

Crocs, Inc. designs and manufactures shoes.  The Company produces soft, lightweight, non-marking, slip- and odor-resistant shoes made of closed-cell resin material.  Crocs manufactures men's, women's, and children's shoes and markets them to retail chains.

Shenzhou International Group Holdings Ltd manufactures and processes textiles.  The Company produces, dyes, finishes, prints, embroiders, cuts, and sews knitwear.

Tapestry, Inc. designs and markets clothes and accessories. The Company offers handbags, leather goods, footwear, fragrance, jewelry, outer wear, ready-to-wear, scarves, sunwear, travel accessories, and watches. Tapestry serves customers in the United States.

VF Corporation is an international apparel company. The Company owns a broad portfolio of brands in the jeanswear, outerwear, packs, footwear, sportswear and occupational apparel categories. VF Corp's products are marketed to consumers shopping in specialty stores, upscale and traditional department stores, national chains and mass merchants.

Brunello Cucinelli SpA is a luxury fashion company, known for its cashmere products as well as exclusive brands.  The Company designs, manufactures, and distributes clothing and accessories globally for men and women.

Moncler S.p.A. is a brand with a winter heritage. Known for its outerwear, Moncler today designs and produces clothing and accessories for women, men and children, directly distributed through Moncler boutiques, its online store, department stores and multibrand stores.

ASICS CORPORATION manufactures general sporting goods and equipment.  The Company's products, such as athletic shoes and sportswear, are distributed in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

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ASICS Corp (7936 JP)

Ohayo Japan: Stocks & SOX Higher; JapanX - Delayed UK Climate Plans Threaten Heat Pump Adoption

US stocks rise despite concerns over higher interest rates; Nike earnings exceed expectations. In Japan, Toyota's production increases and EPCOs...

Mark Chadwick

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Fall on Consumer Fears; JAPAN X: Hitachi Inspires with Mgmt Incentive Scheme

US Equities down on Consumer spending concerns; NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.9; Japan Defense Ministry to ask for (another) Record...

Mark Chadwick

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

ASICS (7936) | Running Is Recession Proof

Nike reported Q3 earnings for the Q ended February. Sales rose +14% to $12.4 b, above street estimates of $11.5b. On a currency-neutral basis,...

Mark Chadwick

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Ohayo Japan: Stocks & SOX Higher; JapanX - Delayed UK Climate Plans Threaten Heat Pump Adoption

​US stocks rise despite concerns over higher interest rates; Nike earnings exceed expectations. In Japan, Toyota's production increases and EPCOs...

Mark Chadwick

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Fall on Consumer Fears; JAPAN X: Hitachi Inspires with Mgmt Incentive Scheme

US Equities down on Consumer spending concerns; NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.9; Japan Defense Ministry to ask for (another) Record...

Mark Chadwick

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

ASICS (7936) | Running Is Recession Proof

Nike reported Q3 earnings for the Q ended February. Sales rose +14% to $12.4 b, above street estimates of $11.5b. On a currency-neutral basis,...

Mark Chadwick

US stocks rise despite concerns over higher interest rates; Nike earnings exceed expectations. In Japan, Toyota's production increases and EPCOs...