Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Strong volume growth in Tier 1/2 locations aided revenue surprise, while RM inflation hurt profitability in Q3.</li>
<li>Impact of price hikes and demand revival in Tier 3/4 locations could be the possible catalysts to monitor going into Q4 </li>
<li>Valuations apart,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> market share gaining ability, strategic positioning and possibility of revenue surprise suggest the trade is best BULLISH and not BEARISH on APNT.</li>
</ul>


Strong volume growth in Tier 1/2 locations aided revenue surprise, while RM inflation hurt profitability in Q3.
Impact of price hikes and demand revival in Tier 3/4 locations could be the possible catalysts to monitor going into Q4 
Valuations apart,  Asian Paints (APNT IN) market share gaining ability, strategic positioning and possibility of revenue surprise suggest the trade is best BULLISH and not BEARISH on APNT.


Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Q3 | Leveraging Leadership Position

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>When Wuthelam took control of Asia's largest coatings business, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paint-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7387:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP)</a>, in August 2020, I was bearish. It was great for the Goh family but minorities lost.</li>
<li>At the time, I said "Float is low", and "There are cross-holders who don't need to be there. This would be a very good sell for them. "</li>
<li>17 months later, 6 financial institutions will now sell their cross-holdings. There is float impact and some immediate index impact. </li>
</ul>


When Wuthelam took control of Asia's largest coatings business, Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP), in August 2020, I was bearish. It was great for the Goh family but minorities lost.
At the time, I said "Float is low", and "There are cross-holders who don't need to be there. This would be a very good sell for them. "
17 months later, 6 financial institutions will now sell their cross-holdings. There is float impact and some immediate index impact. 


Nippon Paint (4612) - A BIG Secondary Which Is a Tough Sell, with Variable Index Implications

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h3>About The Narrative</h3>
Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. 
The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pvr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10144:1" rel="noopener">PVR Ltd (PVRL IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> (Retail) / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/titan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12630:1" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries (PAG IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)</a> 
We have separated the quotes to highlight Business Environment &amp; Key Drivers, Pricing and Premiumisation, Competition, Margins &amp; Commodity Inflation and Outlook.

About The Narrative
Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. 
The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Asian Paints (APNT IN) / PVR Ltd (PVRL IN) / Reliance Industries (RIL IN) (Retail) / Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) / Page Industries (PAG IN) / InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) 
We have separated the quotes to highlight Business Environment &amp; Key Drivers, Pricing and Premiumisation, Competition, Margins &amp; Commodity Inflation and Outlook.

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India Consumer - Asian Paints, PVR, Reliance Retail, Titan, Page, Indigo

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-avia-avian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35034:1" rel="noopener">PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ)</a>  is looking to raise US$772m in its Indonesia IPO.</li>
<li>Avia Avian (AA) is a paint manufacturer and retailer and the market leader in Indonesia’s decorative paint and coating industry with a market share of 20% based on FY20 revenue</li>
<li>AA offered at a valuation that isn't cheap but still justifiable. We think it should trade towards 44.7x and 38.5x FY22 and FY23 P/E ratios based on selected peers’ average. </li>
</ul>



PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ)  is looking to raise US$772m in its Indonesia IPO.
Avia Avian (AA) is a paint manufacturer and retailer and the market leader in Indonesia’s decorative paint and coating industry with a market share of 20% based on FY20 revenue
AA offered at a valuation that isn't cheap but still justifiable. We think it should trade towards 44.7x and 38.5x FY22 and FY23 P/E ratios based on selected peers’ average. 


Avia Avian IPO - Leader in Indonesia Paint Industry with Justifiable Valuation

Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

On October 23rd 2021, <a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/whistle-blower-alleges-related-party-transactions-by-asian-paints-promoters/article37130581.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Financial news paper The Hindu Business line</a> has published article flagging related party transactions carried out by the promoters of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> that allegedly benefited them at the cost of company's shareholders. The stock of the company has been beaten down post such allegation and later on October 24th, 2021 the company has come up with the rebuttal.In this insight, we try to analyse the issue and look through the financial statement and other regulatory fillings of Asian Paints, and Paladin Paints and Chemicals Private Limited. (PPC)

On October 23rd 2021, Financial news paper The Hindu Business line has published article flagging related party transactions carried out by the promoters of Asian Paints (APNT IN) that allegedly benefited them at the cost of company's shareholders. The stock of the company has been beaten down post such allegation and later on October 24th, 2021 the company has come up with the rebuttal.In this insight, we try to analyse the issue and look through the financial statement and other regulatory fillings of Asian Paints, and Paladin Paints and Chemicals Private Limited. (PPC)

India

Asian Paints Limited manufactures a wide range of decorative paints, varnishes, enamels, and black & synthetic resins. The Company, through its subsidiaries, also manufactures specialty industrial chemicals and vinyl pyridine latex products which are used in the manufacture of rubber tires.

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Asian Paints (APNT IN)