Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our worst fears regarding Europe has not materialized, and the global economy does seem to be improving. Thai equities (SET index) have rebounded a recent low of 1,535 to its current level of 1,575 in March largely because of the seemingly obscure Dutch election. This is likely to continue if Macron defeats LePenn this month during the French elections. Stocks with high levels of European exposure (eg. Thai Optical, Exotic Foods) may do well in the short run, but we think the real money is in more fundamentally competitive exporters such as Thai Union and tourism plays, which we expect to benefit from both Brexit (for outbound travel) and THAAD (for inbound travel).

Our worst fears regarding Europe has not materialized, and the global economy does seem to be improving. Thai equities (SET index) have rebounded a recent low of 1,535 to its current level of 1,575 in March largely because of the seemingly obscure Dutch election. This is likely to continue if Macron defeats LePenn this month during the French elections. Stocks with high levels of European exposure (eg. Thai Optical, Exotic Foods) may do well in the short run, but we think the real money is in more fundamentally competitive exporters such as Thai Union and tourism plays, which we expect to benefit from both Brexit (for outbound travel) and THAAD (for inbound travel).

Thai Market Update: Europe, Tourism, and More

Over the past 20 years, Thailand faced two financial crisis, namely Tom Yum Goong in 1997 and Lehman in 2008. Discounting the political nonsense that is just part of life down here, we think there are five important lessons to take away, regarding: 1) the importance of investors; 2) liabilities-cash flow matching; 3) sticking to core competencies as well as avoiding : 4) currency pegs to dollars (or any currency); and 5) capital controls. No event in Thai business history has transformed the landscape more than the 1997 crisis. In this review, we highlight a few anecdotes of those who survived and those who didn't (at least not in their original forms).

Over the past 20 years, Thailand faced two financial crisis, namely Tom Yum Goong in 1997 and Lehman in 2008. Discounting the political nonsense that is just part of life down here, we think there are five important lessons to take away, regarding: 1) the importance of investors; 2) liabilities-cash flow matching; 3) sticking to core competencies as well as avoiding : 4) currency pegs to dollars (or any currency); and 5) capital controls. No event in Thai business history has transformed the landscape more than the 1997 crisis. In this review, we highlight a few anecdotes of those who survived and those who didn't (at least not in their original forms).

Five Biggest Lessons from Thai Financial Crisis

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

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§  The SGX Maritime &amp; Offshore Services (MOE) Index, a benchmark for the MOE Sector, has rebounded 19.7% from its trough on 1 Sep 2016 in tandem with the recovery of crude oil prices, which may be an indication that the sector could be bottoming out.
 
§  Despite the rally, the 18 constituents within the SGX MOE Index are trading at an average current price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.7x, with 10 of them trading below their book values.
 
§  Consensus estimates are expecting oil prices to stabilise and…
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§  The SGX Maritime &amp; Offshore Services (MOE) Index, a benchmark for the MOE Sector, has rebounded 19.7% from its trough on 1 Sep 2016 in tandem with the recovery of crude oil prices, which may be an indication that the sector could be bottoming out.
 
§  Despite the rally, the 18 constituents within the SGX MOE Index are trading at an average current price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.7x, with 10 of them trading below their book values.
 
§  Consensus estimates are expecting oil prices to stabilise and…



SGX's MOE Sector Sustains 4Q16 Momentum into 2017

Equity Bottom-Up

Build the Wall...Yeeha!! Many critics said Trump wouldn't win the elections, and they said if they did, he wouldn't be able to implement what he wanted to...but it's not for lack of trying. Recently, the most controversial ones included talks about actually building that Great Wall of Mexico, which has been their election war cry since the start. Trump mentioned that a 20% import tax on Mexican goods might pay for that, but now to fend off terrorists, he's talking about banning entry from…

Build the Wall...Yeeha!! Many critics said Trump wouldn't win the elections, and they said if they did, he wouldn't be able to implement what he wanted to...but it's not for lack of trying. Recently, the most controversial ones included talks about actually building that Great Wall of Mexico, which has been their election war cry since the start. Trump mentioned that a 20% import tax on Mexican goods might pay for that, but now to fend off terrorists, he's talking about banning entry from…

Snippets#5: Trump Vs Techdom, Clash of the Titans

Reality vs Perception. So Mahidol University did this random survey on campus girls over 18. They didn't quite say how old the upper limit is, but MCorp Review is guessing 21, 22...I dunno. Apparently, there are only 1.2m of them, so they are nothing compare to the old geezers in the forked review who will eventually dominate our economy, but these chics (as a group) are growing 12.9%, so I guess it's worth a look if it doesn't take up too  much time.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
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<td style="width: 226.833px;">Stocks</td>
<td style="width: 115.167px;">Business </td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 150px;">Shr pr (Bt/sh)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 178px;">Mkt cap (US$ m)</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>…

Reality vs Perception. So Mahidol University did this random survey on campus girls over 18. They didn't quite say how old the upper limit is, but MCorp Review is guessing 21, 22...I dunno. Apparently, there are only 1.2m of them, so they are nothing compare to the old geezers in the forked review who will eventually dominate our economy, but these chics (as a group) are growing 12.9%, so I guess it's worth a look if it doesn't take up too  much time.

Stocks
Business 
Shr pr (Bt/sh)
Mkt cap (US$ m)

…

Thailand

Asia Aviation PCL owns a budget airline.  The airline offers low fare flights, online booking, hospitality packages, and courier and cargo services. Asia Aviation serves travelers throughout Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

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Asia Aviation (AAV TB)

Thai Market Update: Europe, Tourism, and More

Our worst fears regarding Europe has not materialized, and the global economy does seem to be improving. Thai equities (SET index) have rebounded a...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Five Biggest Lessons from Thai Financial Crisis

Over the past 20 years, Thailand faced two financial crisis, namely Tom Yum Goong in 1997 and Lehman in 2008. Discounting the political nonsense...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

SGX's MOE Sector Sustains 4Q16 Momentum into 2017

§ The SGX Maritime & Offshore Services (MOE) Index, a benchmark for the MOE Sector, has rebounded 19.7% from its trough on 1 Sep 2016 in...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Snippets#5: Trump Vs Techdom, Clash of the Titans

Build the Wall...Yeeha!! Many critics said Trump wouldn't win the elections, and they said if they did, he wouldn't be able to implement what he...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Mahidol on Gossip Girls

Reality vs Perception. So Mahidol University did this random survey on campus girls over 18. They didn't quite say how old the upper limit is,...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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