Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There have been 14 new listings on the Main Board of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX</a> in Q1. One listing is a transfer from the GEM Board and one is a De-SPAC.</li>
<li>Of the 14 stocks, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (1850960D CH)</a> as potential HSCI inclusions in June.</li>
<li>There are no lock-up expiries in the stocks ahead of inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect and the low float could take the stocks higher ahead of the index inclusion announcement.</li>
</ul>


There have been 14 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX in Q1. One listing is a transfer from the GEM Board and one is a De-SPAC.
Of the 14 stocks, we see Mixue Group (2097 HK), Guming Holdings (1364 HK) and Bloks Group (1850960D CH) as potential HSCI inclusions in June.
There are no lock-up expiries in the stocks ahead of inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect and the low float could take the stocks higher ahead of the index inclusion announcement.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Three Hot Inclusions to Stock Connect in June

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-robotics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36816:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Robotics (454910 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (1822695D US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vng-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26716:1" rel="noopener">VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40028:1" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation (5842 JP)</a> IPOs and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aquila-acquisition-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35435:1" rel="noopener">Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK)</a> de-SPAC.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intage-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3151:1" rel="noopener">Intage Holdings (4326 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mason-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17664:1" rel="noopener">Mason Group Holdings (273 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Doosan Robotics (454910 KS), ARM Holdings (1822695D US), VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US), Integral Corporation (5842 JP) IPOs and Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK) de-SPAC.
Event-Driven developments - JMDC (4483 JP), Intage Holdings (4326 JP), Mason Group Holdings (273 HK), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (10 Sep) - JMDC, Intage, Mason, Liontown, Newcrest, ARM, Integral, Doosan, VNG

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aquila-acquisition-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35435:1" rel="noopener">Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK)</a> agreed to a De-SPAC transaction with ZG Group (formerly Zhaogang.com), the world’s largest digital platform for third-party steel transactions.</li>
<li>ZG has a questionable business model, struggling to generate profits or underlying FCF. This dynamic suggests that ZG has not established a sustainable competitive advantage. </li>
<li>The negotiated value of ZG in the De-SPAC transaction is HK$10,004 million (US$1,277 million). Our valuation analysis suggests that this negotiated value is unrealistic.</li>
</ul>



Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK) agreed to a De-SPAC transaction with ZG Group (formerly Zhaogang.com), the world’s largest digital platform for third-party steel transactions.
ZG has a questionable business model, struggling to generate profits or underlying FCF. This dynamic suggests that ZG has not established a sustainable competitive advantage. 
The negotiated value of ZG in the De-SPAC transaction is HK$10,004 million (US$1,277 million). Our valuation analysis suggests that this negotiated value is unrealistic.


Aquila Acquisition Corp (7836 HK): ZG Group’s Punchy Valuation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>SPACs - remember them? US offerings in 2021 topped ~US$150bn, falling to US$13bn in 2022. Singapore joined the bandwagon in January 2022  and Hong Kong two months later.</li>
<li>That Hong Kong stock is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aquila-acquisition-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35435:1" rel="noopener">Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK)</a>, and it recently announced a merger with ZG Group, a Chinese steel trading website.</li>
<li>That's positive. Less positive is how de-SPACed shares tend to trade in the US. </li>
</ul>


SPACs - remember them? US offerings in 2021 topped ~US$150bn, falling to US$13bn in 2022. Singapore joined the bandwagon in January 2022  and Hong Kong two months later.
That Hong Kong stock is Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK), and it recently announced a merger with ZG Group, a Chinese steel trading website.
That's positive. Less positive is how de-SPACed shares tend to trade in the US. 


APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/linmon-media" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34550:1" rel="noopener">Linmon Media (LM HK)</a> is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Linmon Media (LM) is a content production firm that operates the full value chain of investment, production, distribution, promotion and derivatives licensing of drama series.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at LM’s business, financials, and share our thoughts on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Linmon Media (LM HK) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Linmon Media (LM) is a content production firm that operates the full value chain of investment, production, distribution, promotion and derivatives licensing of drama series.
In this note, we take a look at LM’s business, financials, and share our thoughts on the IPO.


Linmon Media (柠萌影业) Pre-IPO - Consistently Putting up a Good Show

Hong Kong

ZG Group operates as a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). The Company focuses on merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, and reorganization businesses. ZG Group conducts businesses in Hong Kong.

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