Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>This is our first report on AppLovin, a software giant known to operate a well-known platform for mobile app developers, helping them with the marketing and monetization of their apps.</li><li>The company delivered an extremely disappointing result failing to meet Wall Street expectations with respect to revenues as well as earnings.</li><li>The company recently ended its pursuit to acquire Unity Software after a failed attempt.</li></ul>

This is our first report on AppLovin, a software giant known to operate a well-known platform for mobile app developers, helping them with the marketing and monetization of their apps.The company delivered an extremely disappointing result failing to meet Wall Street expectations with respect to revenues as well as earnings.The company recently ended its pursuit to acquire Unity Software after a failed attempt.

AppLovin Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Financial Forecasts

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bigtincan-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29067:1" rel="noopener">Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU)</a> disclosed a non-binding indicative offer of A$0.80 per share offer from SQN, a skinny 17.6% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer is unattractive on several fronts and is the latest beaten-down ASX tech stock to be subject to a PE bid. Expect the Board to reject the offer.</li>
<li>Bigtincan also revealed other non-binding expressions of interest. This offer could flush out other potential bidders. At the last close, the gross spread is 6.0%.</li>
</ul>



Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU) disclosed a non-binding indicative offer of A$0.80 per share offer from SQN, a skinny 17.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer is unattractive on several fronts and is the latest beaten-down ASX tech stock to be subject to a PE bid. Expect the Board to reject the offer.
Bigtincan also revealed other non-binding expressions of interest. This offer could flush out other potential bidders. At the last close, the gross spread is 6.0%.


Bigtincan (BTH AU)’s Lightweight A$0.80 Offer from SQN

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>On the surface AppLovin looks like a company that grew revenue 106% in 2019 and 46% in 2020 with 4Q2020 revenue growth accelerating to 83%, partly on account of the release of its machine learning function AXON. Digging beneath the surface though reveals a lot of potentially questionable acquisitions, debt and very high marginal costs.</p>

On the surface AppLovin looks like a company that grew revenue 106% in 2019 and 46% in 2020 with 4Q2020 revenue growth accelerating to 83%, partly on account of the release of its machine learning function AXON. Digging beneath the surface though reveals a lot of potentially questionable acquisitions, debt and very high marginal costs.

AppLovin IPO – Not Lovin This Whirlpool of a Rollup

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<div class="content-highlight"><p>AppLovin announced its IPO price range of $75 to $85 per share. The company is selling 25 million shares and at the high end of the IPO price range, the company is aiming to raise $2.1 billion. At the high end of the IPO price range ($85 per share), AppLovin would be valued at $30.4 billion. </p></div><p>Our base case valuation of AppLovin is EV of $35.1 billion, implied market cap of $35.7 billion, and implied target price per share of $99.8. This represents 17% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of $85. We have a POSITIVE view of the AppLovin IPO. Our base case valuation of AppLovin is based on a 16x EV/S multiple (using 2021 sales estimate), which represents a 10% higher than the average EV/S multiple of the comps. It is also below the EV/S multiple of Unity Software and Roblox which trade at EV/S multiple of 26.8x and 19.2x, respectively. </p><p>We estimate AppLovin to generate sales of $2.2 billion (up 51% YoY) and an operating profit of $65.2 million in 2021. From 2020 to 2025, we have assumed the company's sales to grow at a CAGR of 28.6%.</p>

AppLovin announced its IPO price range of $75 to $85 per share. The company is selling 25 million shares and at the high end of the IPO price range, the company is aiming to raise $2.1 billion. At the high end of the IPO price range ($85 per share), AppLovin would be valued at $30.4 billion. Our base case valuation of AppLovin is EV of $35.1 billion, implied market cap of $35.7 billion, and implied target price per share of $99.8. This represents 17% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of $85. We have a POSITIVE view of the AppLovin IPO. Our base case valuation of AppLovin is based on a 16x EV/S multiple (using 2021 sales estimate), which represents a 10% higher than the average EV/S multiple of the comps. It is also below the EV/S multiple of Unity Software and Roblox which trade at EV/S multiple of 26.8x and 19.2x, respectively. We estimate AppLovin to generate sales of $2.2 billion (up 51% YoY) and an operating profit of $65.2 million in 2021. From 2020 to 2025, we have assumed the company's sales to grow at a CAGR of 28.6%.

<ul>
<li>Founded in 2011, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin Corp (APP US)</a> is getting ready to complete its IPO in 2Q 2021. The company is aiming to raise about $1 billion in this IPO. KKR purchased a minority stake in the company in 2018 at about $2 billion valuation. The IPO valuation is likely to be much higher.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/applovin-ipo-background-guide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">company</a> originally started its business helping customers to improve the smartphone customer experiences for all the users. In recent years, the company has become a much bigger player in the mobile gaming segment and it also helps developers to grow their users and improve monetization of their apps. </li>
<li>AppLovin's income statement shows strong sales growth in the past three years but declining profit margins. AppLovin generated sales of $1,451.1 million and an operating loss of $62.1 million in 2020. The company's sales have nearly tripled from 2018 to 2020. Despite the company's strong sales growth, one of the things that is not so clear in the prospectus is what percentage of the company's sales growth in the past three years has been driven by organic growth versus acquisitions.</li>
</ul>


Founded in 2011, AppLovin Corp (APP US) is getting ready to complete its IPO in 2Q 2021. The company is aiming to raise about $1 billion in this IPO. KKR purchased a minority stake in the company in 2018 at about $2 billion valuation. The IPO valuation is likely to be much higher.
The company originally started its business helping customers to improve the smartphone customer experiences for all the users. In recent years, the company has become a much bigger player in the mobile gaming segment and it also helps developers to grow their users and improve monetization of their apps. 
AppLovin's income statement shows strong sales growth in the past three years but declining profit margins. AppLovin generated sales of $1,451.1 million and an operating loss of $62.1 million in 2020. The company's sales have nearly tripled from 2018 to 2020. Despite the company's strong sales growth, one of the things that is not so clear in the prospectus is what percentage of the company's sales growth in the past three years has been driven by organic growth versus acquisitions.


United States

AppLovin Corporation provides software solutions. The Company offers an end-to-end software that optimizes monetization, and uses machine learning to make data-driven marketing decisions for profitable growth. AppLovin serves clients worldwide.

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AppLovin (APP US)

AppLovin Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Financial Forecasts

This is our first report on AppLovin, a software giant known to operate a well-known platform for mobile app developers, helping them with the...

Baptista Research

Bigtincan (BTH AU)’s Lightweight A$0.80 Offer from SQN

Expect the Board to reject the offer as it is light. The indicative offer could spark other interested parties to show their hand. We would be...

Arun George

AppLovin IPO – Not Lovin This Whirlpool of a Rollup

While AppLovin looks like an attractive high growth name we have significant concerns regarding the company's marginal profitability, debt and...

Mio Kato

AppLovin IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of AppLovin is implied market cap of $35.7 billion and target price per share of $99.8. This represents 17% higher than the...

Douglas Kim

AppLovin IPO Preview

AppLovin Corp (APP US) is getting ready to complete its IPO in 2Q 2021. The company is aiming to raise about $1 billion in this IPO.

Douglas Kim

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