Lead Analyst, Credit Research, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Konstantinos Oikonomopoulos

Lead Analyst, Credit Research

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Credit

Strong profitability thanks to an improved market, NOL's contribution and Ocean Alliance network efficiencies  Record revenues in FY17: Top line surged by 32% y/y at the end of the year at USD 21bn of which USD 5.9bn were contributed by NOL. On a stand-alone basis and in order to compare accurately performance (NOL consolidation since June 2016), CMA CGM’s sales grew by circa 14% on FY17 revenue of USD 15.2bn vs USD 13.4bn a year before. The consolidated group benefitted from a 21% surge y/y…

Strong profitability thanks to an improved market, NOL's contribution and Ocean Alliance network efficiencies  Record revenues in FY17: Top line surged by 32% y/y at the end of the year at USD 21bn of which USD 5.9bn were contributed by NOL. On a stand-alone basis and in order to compare accurately performance (NOL consolidation since June 2016), CMA CGM’s sales grew by circa 14% on FY17 revenue of USD 15.2bn vs USD 13.4bn a year before. The consolidated group benefitted from a 21% surge y/y…

Container Shipping - Can CMA CGMs Bonds Withstand the Selling Pressure from the Broader Bond Market?

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

I recently witnessed a typical mistake in using EV (enterprise value; short form, market cap + net debt), where the author used it interchangeably with market cap. This got me to thinking how recent non-freshly minted MBAs as well as maybe even other three letter certified specialists, at the margin, may cut corners when valuing their stocks and portfolios and end up siding with momentum investors.It is still fresh in my mind how many (not all) colleagues, especially China-linked, used to care more about inside scoops than valuation approaches. I tend to see many tech plays in light of momentum and not valuation. We could call many of these counters CNBC or Cramer stocks.The discussion is dividend into a discussion and interview on faulty uses of the cost of capital in shipping,  as well as a discussion on some of the mechanical problems now inherent in WACC, especially as it applies to shipping and long-term finance of cyclical assets.

I recently witnessed a typical mistake in using EV (enterprise value; short form, market cap + net debt), where the author used it interchangeably with market cap. This got me to thinking how recent non-freshly minted MBAs as well as maybe even other three letter certified specialists, at the margin, may cut corners when valuing their stocks and portfolios and end up siding with momentum investors.It is still fresh in my mind how many (not all) colleagues, especially China-linked, used to care more about inside scoops than valuation approaches. I tend to see many tech plays in light of momentum and not valuation. We could call many of these counters CNBC or Cramer stocks.The discussion is dividend into a discussion and interview on faulty uses of the cost of capital in shipping,  as well as a discussion on some of the mechanical problems now inherent in WACC, especially as it applies to shipping and long-term finance of cyclical assets.

Frankenstein WACCs. False Idols of Equity, Debt (And Shipping Interview with Sr. Investor)

Strong shipping bonds issuance in 2017<ul><li>A growing number of shipping companies have taken advantage of the low interest rate environment and tapped the debt capital markets in the past year. This comes at a time when the availability of funds for the shipping industry is declining. We highlight four reasons behind the increase in high yield bond volumes coming from the shipping sector:</li></ul>1.Scarcity of funds from the banking sector. The regulatory pressures are forcing these institutions to increase…

Strong shipping bonds issuance in 2017A growing number of shipping companies have taken advantage of the low interest rate environment and tapped the debt capital markets in the past year. This comes at a time when the availability of funds for the shipping industry is declining. We highlight four reasons behind the increase in high yield bond volumes coming from the shipping sector:1.Scarcity of funds from the banking sector. The regulatory pressures are forcing these institutions to increase…

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight rates and carrier profitability had improved sharply in the months following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18689" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18689:1">Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd (117930 KS)</a>'s August 2016 bankruptcy, and that further fundamental improvements would be much harder to come by. About six months after turning cautious on container shipping, we remain negative on the sector, and we believe 2018 will turn out to be worse…

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight rates and carrier profitability had improved sharply in the months following Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd (117930 KS)'s August 2016 bankruptcy, and that further fundamental improvements would be much harder to come by. About six months after turning cautious on container shipping, we remain negative on the sector, and we believe 2018 will turn out to be worse…

Container Shipping Sector: Six Months of Declining Share Prices Explained in Three Charts

Equity analyst - Containers, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Nilesh Tiwary

Equity analyst - Containers

AP Moller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moller Maersk reported its 4Q17 and FY17 numbers on 9 February 2018. The company’s underlying profit from continuing operations stood at USD 356m. However, after including the impact from the discontinued operations, total losses turned out to be USD 1.2bn (DMFR’s loss estimate USD 1.03bn). Maersk Line reported a full-year profit of USD 541m for FY17, slightly lower than our estimate of USD 596m. After initially reacting negatively on Friday, the stock at the time of writing today was up ~3%…

AP Moller Maersk reported its 4Q17 and FY17 numbers on 9 February 2018. The company’s underlying profit from continuing operations stood at USD 356m. However, after including the impact from the discontinued operations, total losses turned out to be USD 1.2bn (DMFR’s loss estimate USD 1.03bn). Maersk Line reported a full-year profit of USD 541m for FY17, slightly lower than our estimate of USD 596m. After initially reacting negatively on Friday, the stock at the time of writing today was up ~3%…

AP Moller Maersk – Results on Expected Lines

Denmark

A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S operates as an integrated transport and logistics company. The Company offers container vessels, supply ships, special vessels, terminals, tug boat activities and reefer container box manufacturing. A.P. Moller-Maersk serves clients worldwide.

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AP Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC)

Container Shipping - Can CMA CGMs Bonds Withstand the Selling Pressure from the Broader Bond Market?

Strong profitability thanks to an improved market, NOL's contribution and Ocean Alliance network efficiencies Record revenues in FY17: Top line...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Frankenstein WACCs. False Idols of Equity, Debt (And Shipping Interview with Sr. Investor)

I recently witnessed a typical mistake in using EV (enterprise value; short form, market cap + net debt), where the author used it interchangeably...

Charles De Trenck

Container Shipping - Fixed Income

Strong shipping bonds issuance in 2017A growing number of shipping companies have taken advantage of the low interest rate environment and tapped...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

AP Moller Maersk – Results on Expected Lines

AP Moller Maersk reported its 4Q17 and FY17 numbers on 9 February 2018. The company’s underlying profit from continuing operations stood at USD...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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52-week Range

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Container Shipping - Can CMA CGMs Bonds Withstand the Selling Pressure from the Broader Bond Market?

Strong profitability thanks to an improved market, NOL's contribution and Ocean Alliance network efficiencies Record revenues in FY17: Top line...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Frankenstein WACCs. False Idols of Equity, Debt (And Shipping Interview with Sr. Investor)

I recently witnessed a typical mistake in using EV (enterprise value; short form, market cap + net debt), where the author used it interchangeably...

Charles De Trenck

Container Shipping - Fixed Income

Strong shipping bonds issuance in 2017A growing number of shipping companies have taken advantage of the low interest rate environment and tapped...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Shipping Sector: Six Months of Declining Share Prices Explained in Three Charts

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight...

Daniel Hellberg

AP Moller Maersk – Results on Expected Lines

AP Moller Maersk reported its 4Q17 and FY17 numbers on 9 February 2018. The company’s underlying profit from continuing operations stood at USD...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research